Comparative analysis of XGBoost, MLP and LSTM techniques for the problem of predicting fire brigade Iiterventions

• Autor(a) principal: Cerna Ñahuis, Selene Leya
• Data de Publicação: 2019
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da UNESP
• Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/11449/190740
• topic: Firefighters; Prediction; XGBoost; Long short-term memory; Multi-layer perceptron; Mutual information regression; Principal component analysis; Bombeiros; Previsão

Many environmental, economic and societal factors are leading fire brigades to be increasingly solicited, and, as a result, they face an ever-increasing number of interventions, most of the time on constant resource. On the other hand, these interventions are directly related to human activity, which itself is predictable: swimming pool drownings occur in summer while road accidents due to ice storms occur in winter. One solution to improve the response of firefighters on constant resource is therefore to predict their workload, i.e., their number of interventions per hour, based on explanatory variables conditioning human activity. The present work aims to develop three models that are compared to determine if they can predict the firefighters' response load in a reasonable way. The tools chosen are the most representative from their respective categories in Machine Learning, such as XGBoost having as core a decision tree, a classic method such as Multi-Layer Perceptron and a more advanced algorithm like Long Short-Term Memory both with neurons as a base. The entire process is detailed, from data collection to obtaining the predictions. The results obtained prove a reasonable quality prediction that can be improved by data science techniques such as feature selection and adjustment of hyperparameters.