Assessing changes in the atmospheric water budget as drivers for precipitation change over two CORDEX-CORE domains
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2020 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
Texto Completo: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05539-1 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/205495 |
Resumo: | This study evaluates the projected changes in the atmospheric water budget and precipitation under the RCP8.5 scenario over two CORDEX-CORE domains: South America (SAM) and Europe (EUR). An ensemble of five twenty-first century projections with the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) and their driving Global Climate Models (GCMs) are analyzed in terms of the atmospheric water budget terms (precipitation, P; evapotranspiration, ET; and moisture flux convergence, C). Special focus is on four subregions: Amazon (AMZ), La Plata basin (LPB), Mid-Europe (ME) and Eastern Europe (EA). The precipitation change signal in SAM presents a dipole pattern, i.e. drier conditions in AMZ and wetter conditions in LPB. Over the two European regions a seasonality is evident, with an increase of ~ 25% in precipitation for DJF and a decrease of ~ 35% in JJA. The atmospheric water budget drivers of precipitation change vary by region and season. For example, in DJF the main drivers are related to the large-scale moisture flux convergence, while in JJA over the AMZ atmospheric moisture flux convergence plays only a minor role and local processes dominate. For JJA in the GCMs the high values of the residual term do not allow us to assess which mechanisms drive the precipitation change signal over the AMZ and LPB, respectively. Same conclusions are found for the RegCM4 JJA simulations over the LPB and EA. This points to the importance of the spatial resolution of climate simulations and the role of parameterization schemes in climate models. Our work illustrates the usefulness of analyzing regional water budgets for a better understanding of precipitation change patterns around our globe. |
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Assessing changes in the atmospheric water budget as drivers for precipitation change over two CORDEX-CORE domainsAtmospheric water balanceClimate changeCORDEX-CORERegCM4This study evaluates the projected changes in the atmospheric water budget and precipitation under the RCP8.5 scenario over two CORDEX-CORE domains: South America (SAM) and Europe (EUR). An ensemble of five twenty-first century projections with the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) and their driving Global Climate Models (GCMs) are analyzed in terms of the atmospheric water budget terms (precipitation, P; evapotranspiration, ET; and moisture flux convergence, C). Special focus is on four subregions: Amazon (AMZ), La Plata basin (LPB), Mid-Europe (ME) and Eastern Europe (EA). The precipitation change signal in SAM presents a dipole pattern, i.e. drier conditions in AMZ and wetter conditions in LPB. Over the two European regions a seasonality is evident, with an increase of ~ 25% in precipitation for DJF and a decrease of ~ 35% in JJA. The atmospheric water budget drivers of precipitation change vary by region and season. For example, in DJF the main drivers are related to the large-scale moisture flux convergence, while in JJA over the AMZ atmospheric moisture flux convergence plays only a minor role and local processes dominate. For JJA in the GCMs the high values of the residual term do not allow us to assess which mechanisms drive the precipitation change signal over the AMZ and LPB, respectively. Same conclusions are found for the RegCM4 JJA simulations over the LPB and EA. This points to the importance of the spatial resolution of climate simulations and the role of parameterization schemes in climate models. Our work illustrates the usefulness of analyzing regional water budgets for a better understanding of precipitation change patterns around our globe.Universidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho (UNESP)Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas Universidade de São Paulo (USP)Department of Meteorology Eötvös Loránd UniversityEarth System Physics Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical PhysicsInstituto de Recursos Naturais (IRN) Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)Centro de Ciência do Sistema Terrestre CCST Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais - INPEDepartamento de Ciências Atmosféricas e Climáticas Centro de Ciência Exatas e da Terra Universidade Federal Do Rio Grande Do NorteNational Centre for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters CEMADENUniversidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho (UNESP)Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)Universidade de São Paulo (USP)Eötvös Loránd UniversityAbdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical PhysicsUniversidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais - INPEUniversidade Federal Do Rio Grande Do NorteCEMADENLlopart, Marta [UNESP]Domingues, Leonardo MorenoTorma, CsabaGiorgi, Filippoda Rocha, Rosmeri PorfírioAmbrizzi, TércioReboita, Michelle SimõesAlves, Lincoln MunizCoppola, Erikada Silva, Maria Leidinicede Souza, Diego Oliveira2021-06-25T10:16:22Z2021-06-25T10:16:22Z2020-01-01info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05539-1Climate Dynamics.1432-08940930-7575http://hdl.handle.net/11449/20549510.1007/s00382-020-05539-12-s2.0-85096381431Scopusreponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESPinstname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)instacron:UNESPengClimate Dynamicsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2021-10-23T14:40:38Zoai:repositorio.unesp.br:11449/205495Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttp://repositorio.unesp.br/oai/requestopendoar:29462024-08-05T18:44:52.606004Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Assessing changes in the atmospheric water budget as drivers for precipitation change over two CORDEX-CORE domains |
title |
Assessing changes in the atmospheric water budget as drivers for precipitation change over two CORDEX-CORE domains |
spellingShingle |
Assessing changes in the atmospheric water budget as drivers for precipitation change over two CORDEX-CORE domains Llopart, Marta [UNESP] Atmospheric water balance Climate change CORDEX-CORE RegCM4 |
title_short |
Assessing changes in the atmospheric water budget as drivers for precipitation change over two CORDEX-CORE domains |
title_full |
Assessing changes in the atmospheric water budget as drivers for precipitation change over two CORDEX-CORE domains |
title_fullStr |
Assessing changes in the atmospheric water budget as drivers for precipitation change over two CORDEX-CORE domains |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessing changes in the atmospheric water budget as drivers for precipitation change over two CORDEX-CORE domains |
title_sort |
Assessing changes in the atmospheric water budget as drivers for precipitation change over two CORDEX-CORE domains |
author |
Llopart, Marta [UNESP] |
author_facet |
Llopart, Marta [UNESP] Domingues, Leonardo Moreno Torma, Csaba Giorgi, Filippo da Rocha, Rosmeri Porfírio Ambrizzi, Tércio Reboita, Michelle Simões Alves, Lincoln Muniz Coppola, Erika da Silva, Maria Leidinice de Souza, Diego Oliveira |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Domingues, Leonardo Moreno Torma, Csaba Giorgi, Filippo da Rocha, Rosmeri Porfírio Ambrizzi, Tércio Reboita, Michelle Simões Alves, Lincoln Muniz Coppola, Erika da Silva, Maria Leidinice de Souza, Diego Oliveira |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp) Universidade de São Paulo (USP) Eötvös Loránd University Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI) Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais - INPE Universidade Federal Do Rio Grande Do Norte CEMADEN |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Llopart, Marta [UNESP] Domingues, Leonardo Moreno Torma, Csaba Giorgi, Filippo da Rocha, Rosmeri Porfírio Ambrizzi, Tércio Reboita, Michelle Simões Alves, Lincoln Muniz Coppola, Erika da Silva, Maria Leidinice de Souza, Diego Oliveira |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Atmospheric water balance Climate change CORDEX-CORE RegCM4 |
topic |
Atmospheric water balance Climate change CORDEX-CORE RegCM4 |
description |
This study evaluates the projected changes in the atmospheric water budget and precipitation under the RCP8.5 scenario over two CORDEX-CORE domains: South America (SAM) and Europe (EUR). An ensemble of five twenty-first century projections with the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) and their driving Global Climate Models (GCMs) are analyzed in terms of the atmospheric water budget terms (precipitation, P; evapotranspiration, ET; and moisture flux convergence, C). Special focus is on four subregions: Amazon (AMZ), La Plata basin (LPB), Mid-Europe (ME) and Eastern Europe (EA). The precipitation change signal in SAM presents a dipole pattern, i.e. drier conditions in AMZ and wetter conditions in LPB. Over the two European regions a seasonality is evident, with an increase of ~ 25% in precipitation for DJF and a decrease of ~ 35% in JJA. The atmospheric water budget drivers of precipitation change vary by region and season. For example, in DJF the main drivers are related to the large-scale moisture flux convergence, while in JJA over the AMZ atmospheric moisture flux convergence plays only a minor role and local processes dominate. For JJA in the GCMs the high values of the residual term do not allow us to assess which mechanisms drive the precipitation change signal over the AMZ and LPB, respectively. Same conclusions are found for the RegCM4 JJA simulations over the LPB and EA. This points to the importance of the spatial resolution of climate simulations and the role of parameterization schemes in climate models. Our work illustrates the usefulness of analyzing regional water budgets for a better understanding of precipitation change patterns around our globe. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-01-01 2021-06-25T10:16:22Z 2021-06-25T10:16:22Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05539-1 Climate Dynamics. 1432-0894 0930-7575 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/205495 10.1007/s00382-020-05539-1 2-s2.0-85096381431 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05539-1 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/205495 |
identifier_str_mv |
Climate Dynamics. 1432-0894 0930-7575 10.1007/s00382-020-05539-1 2-s2.0-85096381431 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Climate Dynamics |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Scopus reponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESP instname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) instacron:UNESP |
instname_str |
Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
instacron_str |
UNESP |
institution |
UNESP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
collection |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
_version_ |
1808128973444481024 |