Assessing changes in the atmospheric water budget as drivers for precipitation change over two CORDEX-CORE domains

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Llopart, Marta [UNESP]
Data de Publicação: 2020
Outros Autores: Domingues, Leonardo Moreno, Torma, Csaba, Giorgi, Filippo, da Rocha, Rosmeri Porfírio, Ambrizzi, Tércio, Reboita, Michelle Simões, Alves, Lincoln Muniz, Coppola, Erika, da Silva, Maria Leidinice, de Souza, Diego Oliveira
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da UNESP
Texto Completo: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05539-1
http://hdl.handle.net/11449/205495
Resumo: This study evaluates the projected changes in the atmospheric water budget and precipitation under the RCP8.5 scenario over two CORDEX-CORE domains: South America (SAM) and Europe (EUR). An ensemble of five twenty-first century projections with the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) and their driving Global Climate Models (GCMs) are analyzed in terms of the atmospheric water budget terms (precipitation, P; evapotranspiration, ET; and moisture flux convergence, C). Special focus is on four subregions: Amazon (AMZ), La Plata basin (LPB), Mid-Europe (ME) and Eastern Europe (EA). The precipitation change signal in SAM presents a dipole pattern, i.e. drier conditions in AMZ and wetter conditions in LPB. Over the two European regions a seasonality is evident, with an increase of ~ 25% in precipitation for DJF and a decrease of ~ 35% in JJA. The atmospheric water budget drivers of precipitation change vary by region and season. For example, in DJF the main drivers are related to the large-scale moisture flux convergence, while in JJA over the AMZ atmospheric moisture flux convergence plays only a minor role and local processes dominate. For JJA in the GCMs the high values of the residual term do not allow us to assess which mechanisms drive the precipitation change signal over the AMZ and LPB, respectively. Same conclusions are found for the RegCM4 JJA simulations over the LPB and EA. This points to the importance of the spatial resolution of climate simulations and the role of parameterization schemes in climate models. Our work illustrates the usefulness of analyzing regional water budgets for a better understanding of precipitation change patterns around our globe.
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spelling Assessing changes in the atmospheric water budget as drivers for precipitation change over two CORDEX-CORE domainsAtmospheric water balanceClimate changeCORDEX-CORERegCM4This study evaluates the projected changes in the atmospheric water budget and precipitation under the RCP8.5 scenario over two CORDEX-CORE domains: South America (SAM) and Europe (EUR). An ensemble of five twenty-first century projections with the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) and their driving Global Climate Models (GCMs) are analyzed in terms of the atmospheric water budget terms (precipitation, P; evapotranspiration, ET; and moisture flux convergence, C). Special focus is on four subregions: Amazon (AMZ), La Plata basin (LPB), Mid-Europe (ME) and Eastern Europe (EA). The precipitation change signal in SAM presents a dipole pattern, i.e. drier conditions in AMZ and wetter conditions in LPB. Over the two European regions a seasonality is evident, with an increase of ~ 25% in precipitation for DJF and a decrease of ~ 35% in JJA. The atmospheric water budget drivers of precipitation change vary by region and season. For example, in DJF the main drivers are related to the large-scale moisture flux convergence, while in JJA over the AMZ atmospheric moisture flux convergence plays only a minor role and local processes dominate. For JJA in the GCMs the high values of the residual term do not allow us to assess which mechanisms drive the precipitation change signal over the AMZ and LPB, respectively. Same conclusions are found for the RegCM4 JJA simulations over the LPB and EA. This points to the importance of the spatial resolution of climate simulations and the role of parameterization schemes in climate models. Our work illustrates the usefulness of analyzing regional water budgets for a better understanding of precipitation change patterns around our globe.Universidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho (UNESP)Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas Universidade de São Paulo (USP)Department of Meteorology Eötvös Loránd UniversityEarth System Physics Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical PhysicsInstituto de Recursos Naturais (IRN) Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)Centro de Ciência do Sistema Terrestre CCST Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais - INPEDepartamento de Ciências Atmosféricas e Climáticas Centro de Ciência Exatas e da Terra Universidade Federal Do Rio Grande Do NorteNational Centre for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters CEMADENUniversidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho (UNESP)Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)Universidade de São Paulo (USP)Eötvös Loránd UniversityAbdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical PhysicsUniversidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais - INPEUniversidade Federal Do Rio Grande Do NorteCEMADENLlopart, Marta [UNESP]Domingues, Leonardo MorenoTorma, CsabaGiorgi, Filippoda Rocha, Rosmeri PorfírioAmbrizzi, TércioReboita, Michelle SimõesAlves, Lincoln MunizCoppola, Erikada Silva, Maria Leidinicede Souza, Diego Oliveira2021-06-25T10:16:22Z2021-06-25T10:16:22Z2020-01-01info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05539-1Climate Dynamics.1432-08940930-7575http://hdl.handle.net/11449/20549510.1007/s00382-020-05539-12-s2.0-85096381431Scopusreponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESPinstname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)instacron:UNESPengClimate Dynamicsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2021-10-23T14:40:38Zoai:repositorio.unesp.br:11449/205495Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttp://repositorio.unesp.br/oai/requestopendoar:29462024-08-05T18:44:52.606004Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Assessing changes in the atmospheric water budget as drivers for precipitation change over two CORDEX-CORE domains
title Assessing changes in the atmospheric water budget as drivers for precipitation change over two CORDEX-CORE domains
spellingShingle Assessing changes in the atmospheric water budget as drivers for precipitation change over two CORDEX-CORE domains
Llopart, Marta [UNESP]
Atmospheric water balance
Climate change
CORDEX-CORE
RegCM4
title_short Assessing changes in the atmospheric water budget as drivers for precipitation change over two CORDEX-CORE domains
title_full Assessing changes in the atmospheric water budget as drivers for precipitation change over two CORDEX-CORE domains
title_fullStr Assessing changes in the atmospheric water budget as drivers for precipitation change over two CORDEX-CORE domains
title_full_unstemmed Assessing changes in the atmospheric water budget as drivers for precipitation change over two CORDEX-CORE domains
title_sort Assessing changes in the atmospheric water budget as drivers for precipitation change over two CORDEX-CORE domains
author Llopart, Marta [UNESP]
author_facet Llopart, Marta [UNESP]
Domingues, Leonardo Moreno
Torma, Csaba
Giorgi, Filippo
da Rocha, Rosmeri Porfírio
Ambrizzi, Tércio
Reboita, Michelle Simões
Alves, Lincoln Muniz
Coppola, Erika
da Silva, Maria Leidinice
de Souza, Diego Oliveira
author_role author
author2 Domingues, Leonardo Moreno
Torma, Csaba
Giorgi, Filippo
da Rocha, Rosmeri Porfírio
Ambrizzi, Tércio
Reboita, Michelle Simões
Alves, Lincoln Muniz
Coppola, Erika
da Silva, Maria Leidinice
de Souza, Diego Oliveira
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
Eötvös Loránd University
Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics
Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais - INPE
Universidade Federal Do Rio Grande Do Norte
CEMADEN
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Llopart, Marta [UNESP]
Domingues, Leonardo Moreno
Torma, Csaba
Giorgi, Filippo
da Rocha, Rosmeri Porfírio
Ambrizzi, Tércio
Reboita, Michelle Simões
Alves, Lincoln Muniz
Coppola, Erika
da Silva, Maria Leidinice
de Souza, Diego Oliveira
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Atmospheric water balance
Climate change
CORDEX-CORE
RegCM4
topic Atmospheric water balance
Climate change
CORDEX-CORE
RegCM4
description This study evaluates the projected changes in the atmospheric water budget and precipitation under the RCP8.5 scenario over two CORDEX-CORE domains: South America (SAM) and Europe (EUR). An ensemble of five twenty-first century projections with the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) and their driving Global Climate Models (GCMs) are analyzed in terms of the atmospheric water budget terms (precipitation, P; evapotranspiration, ET; and moisture flux convergence, C). Special focus is on four subregions: Amazon (AMZ), La Plata basin (LPB), Mid-Europe (ME) and Eastern Europe (EA). The precipitation change signal in SAM presents a dipole pattern, i.e. drier conditions in AMZ and wetter conditions in LPB. Over the two European regions a seasonality is evident, with an increase of ~ 25% in precipitation for DJF and a decrease of ~ 35% in JJA. The atmospheric water budget drivers of precipitation change vary by region and season. For example, in DJF the main drivers are related to the large-scale moisture flux convergence, while in JJA over the AMZ atmospheric moisture flux convergence plays only a minor role and local processes dominate. For JJA in the GCMs the high values of the residual term do not allow us to assess which mechanisms drive the precipitation change signal over the AMZ and LPB, respectively. Same conclusions are found for the RegCM4 JJA simulations over the LPB and EA. This points to the importance of the spatial resolution of climate simulations and the role of parameterization schemes in climate models. Our work illustrates the usefulness of analyzing regional water budgets for a better understanding of precipitation change patterns around our globe.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2020-01-01
2021-06-25T10:16:22Z
2021-06-25T10:16:22Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05539-1
Climate Dynamics.
1432-0894
0930-7575
http://hdl.handle.net/11449/205495
10.1007/s00382-020-05539-1
2-s2.0-85096381431
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05539-1
http://hdl.handle.net/11449/205495
identifier_str_mv Climate Dynamics.
1432-0894
0930-7575
10.1007/s00382-020-05539-1
2-s2.0-85096381431
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Climate Dynamics
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Scopus
reponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESP
instname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)
instacron:UNESP
instname_str Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)
instacron_str UNESP
institution UNESP
reponame_str Repositório Institucional da UNESP
collection Repositório Institucional da UNESP
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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