The CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study in southeastern South America: a comparative study of statistical and dynamical downscaling models in simulating daily extreme precipitation events

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Bettolli, M. L.
Data de Publicação: 2021
Outros Autores: Solman, S. A., da Rocha, R. P., Llopart, M. [UNESP], Gutierrez, J. M., Fernández, J., Olmo, M. E., Lavin-Gullon, A., Chou, S. C., Rodrigues, D. Carneiro, Coppola, E., Balmaceda Huarte, R., Barreiro, M., Blázquez, J., Doyle, M., Feijoó, M., Huth, R., Machado, L., Cuadra, S. Vianna
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da UNESP
Texto Completo: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05549-z
http://hdl.handle.net/11449/205680
Resumo: The aim of this work is to present preliminary results of the statistical and dynamical simulations carried out within the framework of the Flagship Pilot Study in southeastern South America (FPS-SESA) endorsed by the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX) program. The FPS-SESA initiative seeks to promote inter-institutional collaboration and further networking with focus on extreme rainfall events. The main scientific aim is to study multi-scale processes and interactions most conducive to extreme precipitation events through both statistical and dynamical downscaling techniques, including convection-permitting simulations. To this end, a targeted experiment was designed considering the season October 2009 to March 2010, a period with a record number of extreme precipitation events within SESA. Also, three individual extreme events within that season were chosen as case studies for analyzing specific regional processes and sensitivity to resolutions. Four dynamical and four statistical downscaling models (RCM and ESD respectively) from different institutions contributed to the experiment. In this work, an analysis of the capability of the set of the FPS-SESA downscaling methods in simulating daily precipitation during the selected warm season is presented together with an integrated assessment of multiple sources of observations and available CORDEX Regional Climate Model simulations. Comparisons among all simulations reveal that there is no single model that performs best in all aspects evaluated. The ability in reproducing the different features of daily precipitation depends on the model. However, the evaluation of the sequence of precipitation events, their intensity and timing suggests that FPS-SESA simulations based on both RCM and ESD yield promising results. Most models capture the extreme events selected, although with a considerable spread in accumulated values and the location of heavy precipitation.
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spelling The CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study in southeastern South America: a comparative study of statistical and dynamical downscaling models in simulating daily extreme precipitation eventsExtreme precipitationObservational uncertaintySoutheastern South AmericaStatistical and dynamical downscalingThe aim of this work is to present preliminary results of the statistical and dynamical simulations carried out within the framework of the Flagship Pilot Study in southeastern South America (FPS-SESA) endorsed by the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX) program. The FPS-SESA initiative seeks to promote inter-institutional collaboration and further networking with focus on extreme rainfall events. The main scientific aim is to study multi-scale processes and interactions most conducive to extreme precipitation events through both statistical and dynamical downscaling techniques, including convection-permitting simulations. To this end, a targeted experiment was designed considering the season October 2009 to March 2010, a period with a record number of extreme precipitation events within SESA. Also, three individual extreme events within that season were chosen as case studies for analyzing specific regional processes and sensitivity to resolutions. Four dynamical and four statistical downscaling models (RCM and ESD respectively) from different institutions contributed to the experiment. In this work, an analysis of the capability of the set of the FPS-SESA downscaling methods in simulating daily precipitation during the selected warm season is presented together with an integrated assessment of multiple sources of observations and available CORDEX Regional Climate Model simulations. Comparisons among all simulations reveal that there is no single model that performs best in all aspects evaluated. The ability in reproducing the different features of daily precipitation depends on the model. However, the evaluation of the sequence of precipitation events, their intensity and timing suggests that FPS-SESA simulations based on both RCM and ESD yield promising results. Most models capture the extreme events selected, although with a considerable spread in accumulated values and the location of heavy precipitation.Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical PhysicsSecretaria de Ciencia y Tecnica, Universidad de Buenos AiresAgencia Nacional de Promoción Científica y TecnológicaDepartment of Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences Faculty of Exact and Natural Sciences University of Buenos Aires (DCAO-FCEN-UBA)National Council of Scientific and Technical Research (CONICET)Institut Franco‐Argentin d’Estudes sur le Climat et ses Impacts Unité Mixte Internationale (UMI-IFAECI/CNRS-CONICET-UBA)Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y La Atmósfera (CIMA) CONICET-UBADepartamento de Ciências Atmosféricas Universidade de São Paulo (USP)Universidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho (UNESP)Meteorology Group Instituto de Física de Cantabria (IFCA) CSIC-Univ. CantabriaMeteorology Group Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science Universidad de CantabriaCentro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos-INPEInstituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)International Centre for Theoretical Physics (International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP))Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera Facultad de Ciencias Universidad de la RepúblicaFacultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísicas Universidad Nacional de La PlataDepartment of Climatology Institute of Atmospheric Physics Academy of Sciences of the Czech RepublicDepartment of Physical Geography and Geoecology Faculty of Science Charles UniversityBrazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA)Universidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho (UNESP)Secretaria de Ciencia y Tecnica, Universidad de Buenos Aires: 2018-20020170100117BAAgencia Nacional de Promoción Científica y Tecnológica: PICT-2018-02496University of Buenos Aires (DCAO-FCEN-UBA)National Council of Scientific and Technical Research (CONICET)Unité Mixte Internationale (UMI-IFAECI/CNRS-CONICET-UBA)CONICET-UBAUniversidade de São Paulo (USP)Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)CSIC-Univ. CantabriaUniversidad de CantabriaCentro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos-INPEInstituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)International Centre for Theoretical Physics (International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP))Universidad de la RepúblicaUniversidad Nacional de La PlataAcademy of Sciences of the Czech RepublicCharles UniversityEmpresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (EMBRAPA)Bettolli, M. L.Solman, S. A.da Rocha, R. P.Llopart, M. [UNESP]Gutierrez, J. M.Fernández, J.Olmo, M. E.Lavin-Gullon, A.Chou, S. C.Rodrigues, D. CarneiroCoppola, E.Balmaceda Huarte, R.Barreiro, M.Blázquez, J.Doyle, M.Feijoó, M.Huth, R.Machado, L.Cuadra, S. Vianna2021-06-25T10:19:29Z2021-06-25T10:19:29Z2021-03-01info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/article1589-1608http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05549-zClimate Dynamics, v. 56, n. 5-6, p. 1589-1608, 2021.1432-08940930-7575http://hdl.handle.net/11449/20568010.1007/s00382-020-05549-z2-s2.0-85098775402Scopusreponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESPinstname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)instacron:UNESPengClimate Dynamicsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2021-10-22T13:21:49Zoai:repositorio.unesp.br:11449/205680Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttp://repositorio.unesp.br/oai/requestopendoar:29462024-08-05T17:45:22.355076Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv The CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study in southeastern South America: a comparative study of statistical and dynamical downscaling models in simulating daily extreme precipitation events
title The CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study in southeastern South America: a comparative study of statistical and dynamical downscaling models in simulating daily extreme precipitation events
spellingShingle The CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study in southeastern South America: a comparative study of statistical and dynamical downscaling models in simulating daily extreme precipitation events
Bettolli, M. L.
Extreme precipitation
Observational uncertainty
Southeastern South America
Statistical and dynamical downscaling
title_short The CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study in southeastern South America: a comparative study of statistical and dynamical downscaling models in simulating daily extreme precipitation events
title_full The CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study in southeastern South America: a comparative study of statistical and dynamical downscaling models in simulating daily extreme precipitation events
title_fullStr The CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study in southeastern South America: a comparative study of statistical and dynamical downscaling models in simulating daily extreme precipitation events
title_full_unstemmed The CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study in southeastern South America: a comparative study of statistical and dynamical downscaling models in simulating daily extreme precipitation events
title_sort The CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study in southeastern South America: a comparative study of statistical and dynamical downscaling models in simulating daily extreme precipitation events
author Bettolli, M. L.
author_facet Bettolli, M. L.
Solman, S. A.
da Rocha, R. P.
Llopart, M. [UNESP]
Gutierrez, J. M.
Fernández, J.
Olmo, M. E.
Lavin-Gullon, A.
Chou, S. C.
Rodrigues, D. Carneiro
Coppola, E.
Balmaceda Huarte, R.
Barreiro, M.
Blázquez, J.
Doyle, M.
Feijoó, M.
Huth, R.
Machado, L.
Cuadra, S. Vianna
author_role author
author2 Solman, S. A.
da Rocha, R. P.
Llopart, M. [UNESP]
Gutierrez, J. M.
Fernández, J.
Olmo, M. E.
Lavin-Gullon, A.
Chou, S. C.
Rodrigues, D. Carneiro
Coppola, E.
Balmaceda Huarte, R.
Barreiro, M.
Blázquez, J.
Doyle, M.
Feijoó, M.
Huth, R.
Machado, L.
Cuadra, S. Vianna
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv University of Buenos Aires (DCAO-FCEN-UBA)
National Council of Scientific and Technical Research (CONICET)
Unité Mixte Internationale (UMI-IFAECI/CNRS-CONICET-UBA)
CONICET-UBA
Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)
CSIC-Univ. Cantabria
Universidad de Cantabria
Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos-INPE
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
International Centre for Theoretical Physics (International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP))
Universidad de la República
Universidad Nacional de La Plata
Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic
Charles University
Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (EMBRAPA)
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Bettolli, M. L.
Solman, S. A.
da Rocha, R. P.
Llopart, M. [UNESP]
Gutierrez, J. M.
Fernández, J.
Olmo, M. E.
Lavin-Gullon, A.
Chou, S. C.
Rodrigues, D. Carneiro
Coppola, E.
Balmaceda Huarte, R.
Barreiro, M.
Blázquez, J.
Doyle, M.
Feijoó, M.
Huth, R.
Machado, L.
Cuadra, S. Vianna
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Extreme precipitation
Observational uncertainty
Southeastern South America
Statistical and dynamical downscaling
topic Extreme precipitation
Observational uncertainty
Southeastern South America
Statistical and dynamical downscaling
description The aim of this work is to present preliminary results of the statistical and dynamical simulations carried out within the framework of the Flagship Pilot Study in southeastern South America (FPS-SESA) endorsed by the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX) program. The FPS-SESA initiative seeks to promote inter-institutional collaboration and further networking with focus on extreme rainfall events. The main scientific aim is to study multi-scale processes and interactions most conducive to extreme precipitation events through both statistical and dynamical downscaling techniques, including convection-permitting simulations. To this end, a targeted experiment was designed considering the season October 2009 to March 2010, a period with a record number of extreme precipitation events within SESA. Also, three individual extreme events within that season were chosen as case studies for analyzing specific regional processes and sensitivity to resolutions. Four dynamical and four statistical downscaling models (RCM and ESD respectively) from different institutions contributed to the experiment. In this work, an analysis of the capability of the set of the FPS-SESA downscaling methods in simulating daily precipitation during the selected warm season is presented together with an integrated assessment of multiple sources of observations and available CORDEX Regional Climate Model simulations. Comparisons among all simulations reveal that there is no single model that performs best in all aspects evaluated. The ability in reproducing the different features of daily precipitation depends on the model. However, the evaluation of the sequence of precipitation events, their intensity and timing suggests that FPS-SESA simulations based on both RCM and ESD yield promising results. Most models capture the extreme events selected, although with a considerable spread in accumulated values and the location of heavy precipitation.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021-06-25T10:19:29Z
2021-06-25T10:19:29Z
2021-03-01
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05549-z
Climate Dynamics, v. 56, n. 5-6, p. 1589-1608, 2021.
1432-0894
0930-7575
http://hdl.handle.net/11449/205680
10.1007/s00382-020-05549-z
2-s2.0-85098775402
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05549-z
http://hdl.handle.net/11449/205680
identifier_str_mv Climate Dynamics, v. 56, n. 5-6, p. 1589-1608, 2021.
1432-0894
0930-7575
10.1007/s00382-020-05549-z
2-s2.0-85098775402
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Climate Dynamics
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv 1589-1608
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Scopus
reponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESP
instname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)
instacron:UNESP
instname_str Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)
instacron_str UNESP
institution UNESP
reponame_str Repositório Institucional da UNESP
collection Repositório Institucional da UNESP
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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