Identification of Homogeneous Precipitation Regions and Climate Projections with RegCM4 in the Andean Altiplano
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
Outros Autores: | , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
Texto Completo: | http://dx.doi.org/10.26848/rbgf.v15.6.p2689-2703 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/248009 |
Resumo: | The climate of mountainous regions is not easy to study due to the difficulty in installing and maintaining in situ weather stations to record data. Knowledge of the climate of these areas is mainly obtained through remote sensing of the atmosphere and numerical modeling. In order to contribute to the knowledge of the Andean altiplano of Peru and Bolivia climate, this study aims to identify clusters with a similar annual precipitation cycle, as well as the projected climate changes for the altiplano. For that, it is used the regional climate model RegCM4 nested in three global climate models (GFDL, MPI e HadGEM2) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under RCP8.5 future scenario. The homogeneous clusters are defined using the precipitation from the meteorological stations of the DECADE project, and these data are also used to validate the simulations in the present climate (1981-2005). Cluster analysis divided the Andean altiplano in four clusters according to the characteristics of the annual cycle of precipitation. RegCM4 ensemble simulates the annual precipitation with a phase similar to the observed one but overestimates it in the four homogeneous clusters. For the future climate (2030-2060), the ensemble projects for these regions a trend of a slight increase in precipitation in summer (~5%) and a decrease in the winter, which may exceed 50% in July, as simulated by RegGFDL in cluster 4. Additionally, regional differences can be observed in the annual trend signal as a function of latitude and homogeneous clusters. Both factors indicate that there is variability in the strength of the signal projected by each member of the ensemble and, also, regional dependence. |
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Identification of Homogeneous Precipitation Regions and Climate Projections with RegCM4 in the Andean AltiplanoIdentificação de Regiões Homogêneas de Precipitação e Projeções Climáticas com o RegCM4 no Altiplano AndinoAndean altiplanoclimate projectionscluster analysisprecipitationRegCM4The climate of mountainous regions is not easy to study due to the difficulty in installing and maintaining in situ weather stations to record data. Knowledge of the climate of these areas is mainly obtained through remote sensing of the atmosphere and numerical modeling. In order to contribute to the knowledge of the Andean altiplano of Peru and Bolivia climate, this study aims to identify clusters with a similar annual precipitation cycle, as well as the projected climate changes for the altiplano. For that, it is used the regional climate model RegCM4 nested in three global climate models (GFDL, MPI e HadGEM2) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under RCP8.5 future scenario. The homogeneous clusters are defined using the precipitation from the meteorological stations of the DECADE project, and these data are also used to validate the simulations in the present climate (1981-2005). Cluster analysis divided the Andean altiplano in four clusters according to the characteristics of the annual cycle of precipitation. RegCM4 ensemble simulates the annual precipitation with a phase similar to the observed one but overestimates it in the four homogeneous clusters. For the future climate (2030-2060), the ensemble projects for these regions a trend of a slight increase in precipitation in summer (~5%) and a decrease in the winter, which may exceed 50% in July, as simulated by RegGFDL in cluster 4. Additionally, regional differences can be observed in the annual trend signal as a function of latitude and homogeneous clusters. Both factors indicate that there is variability in the strength of the signal projected by each member of the ensemble and, also, regional dependence.Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais (FAPEMIG)Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)Universidade de São Paulo Instituto de Astronomia Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas, R. do Matão 1226, ButantãUniversidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho (UNESP) Departamento de Física, BauruUniversidade Federal de Itajubá Instituto de Recursos Naturais, Av. BPS 1303, Pinheirinho, Minas GeraisUniversidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho (UNESP) Departamento de Física, BauruCAPES: 001Universidade de São Paulo (USP)Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)Instituto de Recursos NaturaisZabalaga, Decker Guzmánda Rocha, Rosmeri PorfírioLlopart, Marta Pereira [UNESP]Reboita, Michelle Simões2023-07-29T13:32:00Z2023-07-29T13:32:00Z2022-01-01info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/article2689-2703http://dx.doi.org/10.26848/rbgf.v15.6.p2689-2703Revista Brasileira de Geografia Fisica, v. 15, n. 6, p. 2689-2703, 2022.1984-2295http://hdl.handle.net/11449/24800910.26848/rbgf.v15.6.p2689-27032-s2.0-85143646023Scopusreponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESPinstname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)instacron:UNESPporRevista Brasileira de Geografia Fisicainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2024-04-25T17:40:19Zoai:repositorio.unesp.br:11449/248009Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttp://repositorio.unesp.br/oai/requestopendoar:29462024-04-25T17:40:19Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Identification of Homogeneous Precipitation Regions and Climate Projections with RegCM4 in the Andean Altiplano Identificação de Regiões Homogêneas de Precipitação e Projeções Climáticas com o RegCM4 no Altiplano Andino |
title |
Identification of Homogeneous Precipitation Regions and Climate Projections with RegCM4 in the Andean Altiplano |
spellingShingle |
Identification of Homogeneous Precipitation Regions and Climate Projections with RegCM4 in the Andean Altiplano Zabalaga, Decker Guzmán Andean altiplano climate projections cluster analysis precipitation RegCM4 |
title_short |
Identification of Homogeneous Precipitation Regions and Climate Projections with RegCM4 in the Andean Altiplano |
title_full |
Identification of Homogeneous Precipitation Regions and Climate Projections with RegCM4 in the Andean Altiplano |
title_fullStr |
Identification of Homogeneous Precipitation Regions and Climate Projections with RegCM4 in the Andean Altiplano |
title_full_unstemmed |
Identification of Homogeneous Precipitation Regions and Climate Projections with RegCM4 in the Andean Altiplano |
title_sort |
Identification of Homogeneous Precipitation Regions and Climate Projections with RegCM4 in the Andean Altiplano |
author |
Zabalaga, Decker Guzmán |
author_facet |
Zabalaga, Decker Guzmán da Rocha, Rosmeri Porfírio Llopart, Marta Pereira [UNESP] Reboita, Michelle Simões |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
da Rocha, Rosmeri Porfírio Llopart, Marta Pereira [UNESP] Reboita, Michelle Simões |
author2_role |
author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade de São Paulo (USP) Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) Instituto de Recursos Naturais |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Zabalaga, Decker Guzmán da Rocha, Rosmeri Porfírio Llopart, Marta Pereira [UNESP] Reboita, Michelle Simões |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Andean altiplano climate projections cluster analysis precipitation RegCM4 |
topic |
Andean altiplano climate projections cluster analysis precipitation RegCM4 |
description |
The climate of mountainous regions is not easy to study due to the difficulty in installing and maintaining in situ weather stations to record data. Knowledge of the climate of these areas is mainly obtained through remote sensing of the atmosphere and numerical modeling. In order to contribute to the knowledge of the Andean altiplano of Peru and Bolivia climate, this study aims to identify clusters with a similar annual precipitation cycle, as well as the projected climate changes for the altiplano. For that, it is used the regional climate model RegCM4 nested in three global climate models (GFDL, MPI e HadGEM2) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under RCP8.5 future scenario. The homogeneous clusters are defined using the precipitation from the meteorological stations of the DECADE project, and these data are also used to validate the simulations in the present climate (1981-2005). Cluster analysis divided the Andean altiplano in four clusters according to the characteristics of the annual cycle of precipitation. RegCM4 ensemble simulates the annual precipitation with a phase similar to the observed one but overestimates it in the four homogeneous clusters. For the future climate (2030-2060), the ensemble projects for these regions a trend of a slight increase in precipitation in summer (~5%) and a decrease in the winter, which may exceed 50% in July, as simulated by RegGFDL in cluster 4. Additionally, regional differences can be observed in the annual trend signal as a function of latitude and homogeneous clusters. Both factors indicate that there is variability in the strength of the signal projected by each member of the ensemble and, also, regional dependence. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-01-01 2023-07-29T13:32:00Z 2023-07-29T13:32:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://dx.doi.org/10.26848/rbgf.v15.6.p2689-2703 Revista Brasileira de Geografia Fisica, v. 15, n. 6, p. 2689-2703, 2022. 1984-2295 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/248009 10.26848/rbgf.v15.6.p2689-2703 2-s2.0-85143646023 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.26848/rbgf.v15.6.p2689-2703 http://hdl.handle.net/11449/248009 |
identifier_str_mv |
Revista Brasileira de Geografia Fisica, v. 15, n. 6, p. 2689-2703, 2022. 1984-2295 10.26848/rbgf.v15.6.p2689-2703 2-s2.0-85143646023 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Revista Brasileira de Geografia Fisica |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
2689-2703 |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Scopus reponame:Repositório Institucional da UNESP instname:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) instacron:UNESP |
instname_str |
Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
instacron_str |
UNESP |
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UNESP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
collection |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Institucional da UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
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1799965473912127488 |