Viabilidade econômica da venda de energia elétrica em cogeração sob condições de risco: um estudo de caso

• Autor(a) principal: Fodra, Marcelo
• Data de Publicação: 2013
• Outros Autores: Esperancini, Maura Seiko Tsutsui [UNESP]
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da UNESP
• Texto Completo: http://dx.doi.org/10.17224/EnergAgric.2013v28n4p229-239; http://hdl.handle.net/11449/137346
• topic: Cogeneration; Risk; Economic viability; Monte Carlo simulation; Case study; Cogeração; Risco; Viabilidade econômica; Simulação de Monte Carlo; Estudo de caso

The availability of the electrical energy, in sufficient quantities and in competitive prices is a crucial factor to the economic development. The trade-in of the excess electrical energy produced in a system of cogeneration can be seen as an alternative to the creation of an additional source of revenues for ethanol power plants sector, besides contributing to the complementation of the Brazilian electrical headquarter with renewable sources. The objective of this study was to evaluate the economic feasibility of the implementation of a cogeneration electrical central using the excess of sugar cane bagasse and selling the excess of electrical energy with prices of the market. An ethanol power plant located in the state of Sao Paulo was used to this study. It was used the case study methodology, evaluating the potential of the investment under the viewpoint of the Net Present Value (NPV), Payback and Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and complementing the results of the Accounting Results (AC). It was created three alternative scenarios to reflect the level of the risk of every studied situation: the most likely, an optimistic and a pessimistic, each one with its assumptions. The Monte Carlo Simulations was used to insert the elements of risk to each scenario. The results showed that the project is feasible in all NPV scenarios. And the Payback and IRR analysis confirmed these evidences. The valuation with the AR showed that the project is most risky at the pessimistic scenario, but is feasibly in the most likely and the optimistic scenarios. It was concluded that the project is economic viable. However, the economic viability shown in the results is based on the maintenance of the future prices on the levels of the historical prices used in the analysis.