Modelo de predicción de la deserción estudiantil de primer año en la Universidad Bernardo O´Higgins
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2019 |
Outros Autores: | , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng spa |
Título da fonte: | Educação e Pesquisa |
Texto Completo: | https://www.revistas.usp.br/ep/article/view/157331 |
Resumo: | The objective of this study is to model a retention predictive system for first-year students at Universidad Bernardo O’Higgins (Santiago de Chile), by determining which of the variables of entry into higher education, whether these are academic, social or relatives, are revealed significant for this analysis. The construction of the research model was based on a thorough bibliographic review which made possible to identify explanatory variables of university dropout in the national context. Afterwards, from the systematization of socio-educational backgrounds of the students from the 2014 and 2015 cohorts available in the university’s computer systems, a tripartite matrix was consolidated with the data associated with the variables that emerged from the analysis of the target group consulted. Consequently, we analyzed the relationship of each of the explanatory variables of the study with the variable control student desertion. The bivariate analysis allowed us to identify seventeen variables, significantly associated with student desertion and to specify dependency relations with the abandonment of studies. The multivariate model predicted abandonment behavior in 86.4%, indicating seven independent categorical variables that, finally, are revealed as relevant factors of the prediction model. The varied and sustained interpretations delivered in the results of the model, as well as the proposed suggestions to improve the university retention index, provide a direct value to the study aimed at optimizing one of the most important indicators linked to the quality management in universities, as is the student retention. |
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Modelo de predicción de la deserción estudiantil de primer año en la Universidad Bernardo O´HigginsPrediction model of first-year student desertion at Universidad Bernardo O´Higgins (UBO)StudentsStudent retentionEntrance behavior variablesHigher educationEstudiantesRetención estudiantilVariables de conductas de entradaEducación superiorThe objective of this study is to model a retention predictive system for first-year students at Universidad Bernardo O’Higgins (Santiago de Chile), by determining which of the variables of entry into higher education, whether these are academic, social or relatives, are revealed significant for this analysis. The construction of the research model was based on a thorough bibliographic review which made possible to identify explanatory variables of university dropout in the national context. Afterwards, from the systematization of socio-educational backgrounds of the students from the 2014 and 2015 cohorts available in the university’s computer systems, a tripartite matrix was consolidated with the data associated with the variables that emerged from the analysis of the target group consulted. Consequently, we analyzed the relationship of each of the explanatory variables of the study with the variable control student desertion. The bivariate analysis allowed us to identify seventeen variables, significantly associated with student desertion and to specify dependency relations with the abandonment of studies. The multivariate model predicted abandonment behavior in 86.4%, indicating seven independent categorical variables that, finally, are revealed as relevant factors of the prediction model. The varied and sustained interpretations delivered in the results of the model, as well as the proposed suggestions to improve the university retention index, provide a direct value to the study aimed at optimizing one of the most important indicators linked to the quality management in universities, as is the student retention.El presente estudio tiene como objetivo modelar un sistema predictivo de retención de los estudiantes de primer año de la Universidad Bernardo O´Higgins - UBO (Santiago de Chile), determinando cuáles de las variables de entrada a la educación superior, ya sean estas académicas, sociales o familiares, se revelan significativas para este análisis. La construcción del modelo de investigación se sustentó en una exhaustiva revisión bibliográfica que permitió identificar variables explicativas de la deserción universitaria en el contexto nacional. Luego, a partir de la sistematización de antecedentes socioeducativos de los estudiantes de las cohortes 2014 y 2015 disponibles en los sistemas informáticos de la universidad, se consolidó una matriz tripartita con los datos asociados a las variables que emergieron del análisis de los referentes consultados. Consecuentemente, se analizó la relación de cada una de las variables explicativas del estudio con la variable control deserción estudiantil. El análisis bivariado permitió identificar diecisiete variables, significativamente asociadas con la deserción estudiantil y precisar las relaciones de dependencia con el abandono de estudios. El modelo multivariado predijo en un 86,4 % la conducta de abandono señalando siete variables categóricas independientes que, finalmente, se develan como factores relevantes del modelo predicción. Las variadas y sustentadas interpretaciones entregadas en los resultados del modelo, así como las sugerencias propuestas para mejorar el índice de retención universitaria, entregan un valor directo al estudio dirigido a optimizar uno de los indicadores más importantes vinculados a una gestión de calidad en las universidades, como es, la retención estudiantil.Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Educação2019-04-24info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttps://www.revistas.usp.br/ep/article/view/15733110.1590/s1678-4634201844172094Educação e Pesquisa; v. 44 (2018); e172094Educação e Pesquisa; Vol. 44 (2018); e172094Educação e Pesquisa; Vol. 44 (2018); e1720941678-46341517-9702reponame:Educação e Pesquisainstname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP)instacron:USPengspahttps://www.revistas.usp.br/ep/article/view/157331/152692https://www.revistas.usp.br/ep/article/view/157331/152693Copyright (c) 2019 Educação e Pesquisainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessPérez, Alexis MatheuEscobar, Claudio RuffToledo, Marcelo RuizGutierrez, Luis BenitesReyes, Germán Morong2019-04-24T13:58:36Zoai:revistas.usp.br:article/157331Revistahttps://www.revistas.usp.br/ep/indexPUBhttps://www.revistas.usp.br/ep/oai||revedu@usp.br1678-46341517-9702opendoar:2019-04-24T13:58:36Educação e Pesquisa - Universidade de São Paulo (USP)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Modelo de predicción de la deserción estudiantil de primer año en la Universidad Bernardo O´Higgins Prediction model of first-year student desertion at Universidad Bernardo O´Higgins (UBO) |
title |
Modelo de predicción de la deserción estudiantil de primer año en la Universidad Bernardo O´Higgins |
spellingShingle |
Modelo de predicción de la deserción estudiantil de primer año en la Universidad Bernardo O´Higgins Pérez, Alexis Matheu Students Student retention Entrance behavior variables Higher education Estudiantes Retención estudiantil Variables de conductas de entrada Educación superior |
title_short |
Modelo de predicción de la deserción estudiantil de primer año en la Universidad Bernardo O´Higgins |
title_full |
Modelo de predicción de la deserción estudiantil de primer año en la Universidad Bernardo O´Higgins |
title_fullStr |
Modelo de predicción de la deserción estudiantil de primer año en la Universidad Bernardo O´Higgins |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelo de predicción de la deserción estudiantil de primer año en la Universidad Bernardo O´Higgins |
title_sort |
Modelo de predicción de la deserción estudiantil de primer año en la Universidad Bernardo O´Higgins |
author |
Pérez, Alexis Matheu |
author_facet |
Pérez, Alexis Matheu Escobar, Claudio Ruff Toledo, Marcelo Ruiz Gutierrez, Luis Benites Reyes, Germán Morong |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Escobar, Claudio Ruff Toledo, Marcelo Ruiz Gutierrez, Luis Benites Reyes, Germán Morong |
author2_role |
author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Pérez, Alexis Matheu Escobar, Claudio Ruff Toledo, Marcelo Ruiz Gutierrez, Luis Benites Reyes, Germán Morong |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Students Student retention Entrance behavior variables Higher education Estudiantes Retención estudiantil Variables de conductas de entrada Educación superior |
topic |
Students Student retention Entrance behavior variables Higher education Estudiantes Retención estudiantil Variables de conductas de entrada Educación superior |
description |
The objective of this study is to model a retention predictive system for first-year students at Universidad Bernardo O’Higgins (Santiago de Chile), by determining which of the variables of entry into higher education, whether these are academic, social or relatives, are revealed significant for this analysis. The construction of the research model was based on a thorough bibliographic review which made possible to identify explanatory variables of university dropout in the national context. Afterwards, from the systematization of socio-educational backgrounds of the students from the 2014 and 2015 cohorts available in the university’s computer systems, a tripartite matrix was consolidated with the data associated with the variables that emerged from the analysis of the target group consulted. Consequently, we analyzed the relationship of each of the explanatory variables of the study with the variable control student desertion. The bivariate analysis allowed us to identify seventeen variables, significantly associated with student desertion and to specify dependency relations with the abandonment of studies. The multivariate model predicted abandonment behavior in 86.4%, indicating seven independent categorical variables that, finally, are revealed as relevant factors of the prediction model. The varied and sustained interpretations delivered in the results of the model, as well as the proposed suggestions to improve the university retention index, provide a direct value to the study aimed at optimizing one of the most important indicators linked to the quality management in universities, as is the student retention. |
publishDate |
2019 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2019-04-24 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://www.revistas.usp.br/ep/article/view/157331 10.1590/s1678-4634201844172094 |
url |
https://www.revistas.usp.br/ep/article/view/157331 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.1590/s1678-4634201844172094 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng spa |
language |
eng spa |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://www.revistas.usp.br/ep/article/view/157331/152692 https://www.revistas.usp.br/ep/article/view/157331/152693 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2019 Educação e Pesquisa info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2019 Educação e Pesquisa |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Educação |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Educação |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Educação e Pesquisa; v. 44 (2018); e172094 Educação e Pesquisa; Vol. 44 (2018); e172094 Educação e Pesquisa; Vol. 44 (2018); e172094 1678-4634 1517-9702 reponame:Educação e Pesquisa instname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP) instacron:USP |
instname_str |
Universidade de São Paulo (USP) |
instacron_str |
USP |
institution |
USP |
reponame_str |
Educação e Pesquisa |
collection |
Educação e Pesquisa |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Educação e Pesquisa - Universidade de São Paulo (USP) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
||revedu@usp.br |
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1787713812721303552 |