Agriculture and food security challenge of climate change: a dynamic analysis for policy selection
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2016 |
Outros Autores: | , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Scientia Agrícola (Online) |
Texto Completo: | https://www.revistas.usp.br/sa/article/view/117299 |
Resumo: | This study presents an empirical examination of climate change related to vulnerability impacts on food security and remedial adaptation options as a suitable strategy by prioritizing needs over a 50-year period. An Empirical Dynamic Commutable General Equilibrium Model for Climate and the Economy (EDCGECE) is applied using future strategies for Malaysia against a baseline scenario of existing conditions, following the top-down options. The model takes into account various climatic variables, including climatic damage, carbon cycle, temperature and rainfall fluctuation, carbon emissions, vulnerability and carbon concentrations, which were adapted from national observational predictions of climatic changes caused by global warming from 2015 to 2065. The results prioritize climate change mitigation for the future. Specifically, this study estimates Malaysia’s food sustainability prospects without adaptation actions and with 5 % to 20 % adaptation actions overtime in different adaptation scenarios, as contrasted with the baseline. The results indicate that food sustainability cost in the baseline in 2015 is 859.3 million US Dollar (USD), which is about a 30-35 % shortage compared with the national targets, and that the shortage will rise over time to USD 987.3 million in 2065. However, the cost of applying different levels of adaptation for food sustainability over time is rising considerably. However, the residual damage also decreases with all adaptation actions in the different scenarios. Thus, adaptation shows a positive sign for Malaysia’s agricultural sectors. As growth values are positive and show rising trends, therefore the projected adaptation policy can be effective for food sustainability for sustainable future strategies in Malaysia. |
id |
USP-18_0a6e60308ca9ac6563627baa1af01d00 |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:revistas.usp.br:article/117299 |
network_acronym_str |
USP-18 |
network_name_str |
Scientia Agrícola (Online) |
repository_id_str |
|
spelling |
Agriculture and food security challenge of climate change: a dynamic analysis for policy selection This study presents an empirical examination of climate change related to vulnerability impacts on food security and remedial adaptation options as a suitable strategy by prioritizing needs over a 50-year period. An Empirical Dynamic Commutable General Equilibrium Model for Climate and the Economy (EDCGECE) is applied using future strategies for Malaysia against a baseline scenario of existing conditions, following the top-down options. The model takes into account various climatic variables, including climatic damage, carbon cycle, temperature and rainfall fluctuation, carbon emissions, vulnerability and carbon concentrations, which were adapted from national observational predictions of climatic changes caused by global warming from 2015 to 2065. The results prioritize climate change mitigation for the future. Specifically, this study estimates Malaysia’s food sustainability prospects without adaptation actions and with 5 % to 20 % adaptation actions overtime in different adaptation scenarios, as contrasted with the baseline. The results indicate that food sustainability cost in the baseline in 2015 is 859.3 million US Dollar (USD), which is about a 30-35 % shortage compared with the national targets, and that the shortage will rise over time to USD 987.3 million in 2065. However, the cost of applying different levels of adaptation for food sustainability over time is rising considerably. However, the residual damage also decreases with all adaptation actions in the different scenarios. Thus, adaptation shows a positive sign for Malaysia’s agricultural sectors. As growth values are positive and show rising trends, therefore the projected adaptation policy can be effective for food sustainability for sustainable future strategies in Malaysia. Universidade de São Paulo. Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz2016-08-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://www.revistas.usp.br/sa/article/view/11729910.1590/0103-9016-2015-0141Scientia Agricola; v. 73 n. 4 (2016); 311-321Scientia Agricola; Vol. 73 Núm. 4 (2016); 311-321Scientia Agricola; Vol. 73 No. 4 (2016); 311-3211678-992X0103-9016reponame:Scientia Agrícola (Online)instname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP)instacron:USPenghttps://www.revistas.usp.br/sa/article/view/117299/114932Copyright (c) 2016 Scientia Agricolainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessAhmed, FerdousAl-Amin, Abul QuasemMohamad, Zeeda FatimahChenayah, Santha2016-07-05T13:48:55Zoai:revistas.usp.br:article/117299Revistahttp://revistas.usp.br/sa/indexPUBhttps://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.phpscientia@usp.br||alleoni@usp.br1678-992X0103-9016opendoar:2016-07-05T13:48:55Scientia Agrícola (Online) - Universidade de São Paulo (USP)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Agriculture and food security challenge of climate change: a dynamic analysis for policy selection |
title |
Agriculture and food security challenge of climate change: a dynamic analysis for policy selection |
spellingShingle |
Agriculture and food security challenge of climate change: a dynamic analysis for policy selection Ahmed, Ferdous |
title_short |
Agriculture and food security challenge of climate change: a dynamic analysis for policy selection |
title_full |
Agriculture and food security challenge of climate change: a dynamic analysis for policy selection |
title_fullStr |
Agriculture and food security challenge of climate change: a dynamic analysis for policy selection |
title_full_unstemmed |
Agriculture and food security challenge of climate change: a dynamic analysis for policy selection |
title_sort |
Agriculture and food security challenge of climate change: a dynamic analysis for policy selection |
author |
Ahmed, Ferdous |
author_facet |
Ahmed, Ferdous Al-Amin, Abul Quasem Mohamad, Zeeda Fatimah Chenayah, Santha |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Al-Amin, Abul Quasem Mohamad, Zeeda Fatimah Chenayah, Santha |
author2_role |
author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Ahmed, Ferdous Al-Amin, Abul Quasem Mohamad, Zeeda Fatimah Chenayah, Santha |
description |
This study presents an empirical examination of climate change related to vulnerability impacts on food security and remedial adaptation options as a suitable strategy by prioritizing needs over a 50-year period. An Empirical Dynamic Commutable General Equilibrium Model for Climate and the Economy (EDCGECE) is applied using future strategies for Malaysia against a baseline scenario of existing conditions, following the top-down options. The model takes into account various climatic variables, including climatic damage, carbon cycle, temperature and rainfall fluctuation, carbon emissions, vulnerability and carbon concentrations, which were adapted from national observational predictions of climatic changes caused by global warming from 2015 to 2065. The results prioritize climate change mitigation for the future. Specifically, this study estimates Malaysia’s food sustainability prospects without adaptation actions and with 5 % to 20 % adaptation actions overtime in different adaptation scenarios, as contrasted with the baseline. The results indicate that food sustainability cost in the baseline in 2015 is 859.3 million US Dollar (USD), which is about a 30-35 % shortage compared with the national targets, and that the shortage will rise over time to USD 987.3 million in 2065. However, the cost of applying different levels of adaptation for food sustainability over time is rising considerably. However, the residual damage also decreases with all adaptation actions in the different scenarios. Thus, adaptation shows a positive sign for Malaysia’s agricultural sectors. As growth values are positive and show rising trends, therefore the projected adaptation policy can be effective for food sustainability for sustainable future strategies in Malaysia. |
publishDate |
2016 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2016-08-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://www.revistas.usp.br/sa/article/view/117299 10.1590/0103-9016-2015-0141 |
url |
https://www.revistas.usp.br/sa/article/view/117299 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.1590/0103-9016-2015-0141 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://www.revistas.usp.br/sa/article/view/117299/114932 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2016 Scientia Agricola info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2016 Scientia Agricola |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade de São Paulo. Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade de São Paulo. Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Scientia Agricola; v. 73 n. 4 (2016); 311-321 Scientia Agricola; Vol. 73 Núm. 4 (2016); 311-321 Scientia Agricola; Vol. 73 No. 4 (2016); 311-321 1678-992X 0103-9016 reponame:Scientia Agrícola (Online) instname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP) instacron:USP |
instname_str |
Universidade de São Paulo (USP) |
instacron_str |
USP |
institution |
USP |
reponame_str |
Scientia Agrícola (Online) |
collection |
Scientia Agrícola (Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Scientia Agrícola (Online) - Universidade de São Paulo (USP) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
scientia@usp.br||alleoni@usp.br |
_version_ |
1800222792849817600 |