The effect of antagonistic monetary policies on economic activity: an analysis based on the Brazilian and Japanese cases

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Lages, Lorena Marques Arêdes
Data de Publicação: 2023
Outros Autores: Firme, Vinícius de Azevedo Couto
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Economia Aplicada
Texto Completo: https://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/184189
Resumo: Since the 1990s, interest rates have remained high in Brazil, in order to inhibit inflation, and close to zero (or negative) in Japan, to avoid chronic deflation. Based on this antagonism, the impacts, on economic activity, of the monetary policies from these countries were analyzed. Therefore, ARDL (Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag) models with quarterly data from 1996-2019 were used. The results indicate an interdependence between fiscal and monetary policies and suggest that policies with inflationary potential could generate reduced/negative impacts in Brazil (averse to inflation) and increased/positive impacts in Japan (contrary to deflation).
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spelling The effect of antagonistic monetary policies on economic activity: an analysis based on the Brazilian and Japanese casesO efeito de políticas monetárias antagônicas sobre a atividade econômica: uma análise baseada nos casos brasileiro e japonêsmonetary policyeconomic impactsARDL modelpolítica monetáriaimpactos econômicosmodelo ARDLSince the 1990s, interest rates have remained high in Brazil, in order to inhibit inflation, and close to zero (or negative) in Japan, to avoid chronic deflation. Based on this antagonism, the impacts, on economic activity, of the monetary policies from these countries were analyzed. Therefore, ARDL (Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag) models with quarterly data from 1996-2019 were used. The results indicate an interdependence between fiscal and monetary policies and suggest that policies with inflationary potential could generate reduced/negative impacts in Brazil (averse to inflation) and increased/positive impacts in Japan (contrary to deflation).Desde a década de 1990, os juros têm se mantido elevados no Brasil, a fim de inibir a inflação, e próximos de zero (ou negativos) no Japão, visando evitar a crônica deflação. Diante desse antagonismo, buscou-se analisar os impactos, sobre a atividade econômica, das políticas monetárias desses países. Para tanto, usaram-se os modelos ARDL (Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag), com dados trimestrais de 1996-2019. Os resultados indicam certa interdependência entre as políticas fiscais e monetárias e sugerem que políticas com potencial inflacionário poderiam gerar impactos reduzidos/negativos no Brasil (avesso à inflação) e ampliados/positivos no Japão (complacente com o aumento de preços).Universidade de São Paulo, FEA-RP/USP2023-03-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/18418910.11606/1980-5330/ea184189Economia Aplicada; Vol. 27 No. 1 (2023); 5-34Economia Aplicada; v. 27 n. 1 (2023); 5-34Economia Aplicada; Vol. 27 Núm. 1 (2023); 5-341980-53301413-8050reponame:Economia Aplicadainstname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP)instacron:USPporhttps://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/184189/205448Copyright (c) 2023 Economia Aplicadahttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessLages, Lorena Marques ArêdesFirme, Vinícius de Azevedo Couto2024-11-21T13:45:11Zoai:revistas.usp.br:article/184189Revistahttps://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoaPUBhttps://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/oai||revecap@usp.br1980-53301413-8050opendoar:2024-11-21T13:45:11Economia Aplicada - Universidade de São Paulo (USP)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv The effect of antagonistic monetary policies on economic activity: an analysis based on the Brazilian and Japanese cases
O efeito de políticas monetárias antagônicas sobre a atividade econômica: uma análise baseada nos casos brasileiro e japonês
title The effect of antagonistic monetary policies on economic activity: an analysis based on the Brazilian and Japanese cases
spellingShingle The effect of antagonistic monetary policies on economic activity: an analysis based on the Brazilian and Japanese cases
Lages, Lorena Marques Arêdes
monetary policy
economic impacts
ARDL model
política monetária
impactos econômicos
modelo ARDL
title_short The effect of antagonistic monetary policies on economic activity: an analysis based on the Brazilian and Japanese cases
title_full The effect of antagonistic monetary policies on economic activity: an analysis based on the Brazilian and Japanese cases
title_fullStr The effect of antagonistic monetary policies on economic activity: an analysis based on the Brazilian and Japanese cases
title_full_unstemmed The effect of antagonistic monetary policies on economic activity: an analysis based on the Brazilian and Japanese cases
title_sort The effect of antagonistic monetary policies on economic activity: an analysis based on the Brazilian and Japanese cases
author Lages, Lorena Marques Arêdes
author_facet Lages, Lorena Marques Arêdes
Firme, Vinícius de Azevedo Couto
author_role author
author2 Firme, Vinícius de Azevedo Couto
author2_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Lages, Lorena Marques Arêdes
Firme, Vinícius de Azevedo Couto
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv monetary policy
economic impacts
ARDL model
política monetária
impactos econômicos
modelo ARDL
topic monetary policy
economic impacts
ARDL model
política monetária
impactos econômicos
modelo ARDL
description Since the 1990s, interest rates have remained high in Brazil, in order to inhibit inflation, and close to zero (or negative) in Japan, to avoid chronic deflation. Based on this antagonism, the impacts, on economic activity, of the monetary policies from these countries were analyzed. Therefore, ARDL (Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag) models with quarterly data from 1996-2019 were used. The results indicate an interdependence between fiscal and monetary policies and suggest that policies with inflationary potential could generate reduced/negative impacts in Brazil (averse to inflation) and increased/positive impacts in Japan (contrary to deflation).
publishDate 2023
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2023-03-01
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/184189
10.11606/1980-5330/ea184189
url https://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/184189
identifier_str_mv 10.11606/1980-5330/ea184189
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/184189/205448
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2023 Economia Aplicada
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2023 Economia Aplicada
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade de São Paulo, FEA-RP/USP
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade de São Paulo, FEA-RP/USP
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Economia Aplicada; Vol. 27 No. 1 (2023); 5-34
Economia Aplicada; v. 27 n. 1 (2023); 5-34
Economia Aplicada; Vol. 27 Núm. 1 (2023); 5-34
1980-5330
1413-8050
reponame:Economia Aplicada
instname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
instacron:USP
instname_str Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
instacron_str USP
institution USP
reponame_str Economia Aplicada
collection Economia Aplicada
repository.name.fl_str_mv Economia Aplicada - Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv ||revecap@usp.br
_version_ 1818372384156024832

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