Fiscal policy and expectations in Brazil

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Costa Filho, Adonias Evaristo da
Data de Publicação: 2018
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Economia Aplicada
Texto Completo: https://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/128459
Resumo: This paper studies the effects of fiscal news on the Brazilian economy, building on the new literature that seeks to identify fiscal policy shocks through information from professional forecasts. I build a term structureof primary balance expectations in Brazil, and estimate fiscal reaction functions for different maturities. Primary balance forecasts are decomposed into an expected and unexpected component, based on predicted and residuals obtained from the reaction functions. Expected and unexpected fiscal news are identified respectively as the first factor of the predicted and residual series from the reaction functions, aiming to capture the news that are likely to persist over the forecast horizon. Although with substantial uncertainty, fiscal tightening news induce a short-lived increase in growth, fall in inflation, decline in the real wage and a depreciation of the real exchange rate.
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spelling Fiscal policy and expectations in Brazilfiscal policyprimary balancenewsexpectationspolítica fiscalsuperávit primárionotíciasexpectativasThis paper studies the effects of fiscal news on the Brazilian economy, building on the new literature that seeks to identify fiscal policy shocks through information from professional forecasts. I build a term structureof primary balance expectations in Brazil, and estimate fiscal reaction functions for different maturities. Primary balance forecasts are decomposed into an expected and unexpected component, based on predicted and residuals obtained from the reaction functions. Expected and unexpected fiscal news are identified respectively as the first factor of the predicted and residual series from the reaction functions, aiming to capture the news that are likely to persist over the forecast horizon. Although with substantial uncertainty, fiscal tightening news induce a short-lived increase in growth, fall in inflation, decline in the real wage and a depreciation of the real exchange rate.Este artigo estuda os efeitos de notícias fiscais sobre a economia brasileira, baseando-se na nova literatura que procura identificar choques na política fiscal por meio de informações de previsões profissionais. É construída uma estrutura a termo de expectativas de superávit primário para o Brasil, e estimadas funções de reação para diferentes maturidades. As notícias fiscais são decompostas em um componente esperado e outro não esperado, baseados nos valores previstos e nos resíduos das funções de reação. Notícias fiscais esperadas e não esperadas são identificadas respectivamente como o primeiro fator das séries de valores previstos e dos resíduos das funções de reação, procurando capturar as notícias que tendem a persistir no horizonte de previsão. Embora com substancial incerteza, notícias sobre um aperto fiscal provocam um aumento de curto prazo no produto, uma queda da inflação, um declínio do salário real e uma depreciação da taxa de câmbio real.               Universidade de São Paulo, FEA-RP/USP2018-09-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/12845910.11606/1980-5330/ea128459Economia Aplicada; Vol. 22 No. 3 (2018); 27-52Economia Aplicada; Vol. 22 Núm. 3 (2018); 27-52Economia Aplicada; v. 22 n. 3 (2018); 27-521980-53301413-8050reponame:Economia Aplicadainstname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP)instacron:USPenghttps://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/128459/160424Copyright (c) 2018 Economia Aplicadainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessCosta Filho, Adonias Evaristo da2020-08-05T04:57:01Zoai:revistas.usp.br:article/128459Revistahttps://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoaPUBhttps://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/oai||revecap@usp.br1980-53301413-8050opendoar:2023-09-13T12:17:07.717108Economia Aplicada - Universidade de São Paulo (USP)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Fiscal policy and expectations in Brazil
title Fiscal policy and expectations in Brazil
spellingShingle Fiscal policy and expectations in Brazil
Costa Filho, Adonias Evaristo da
fiscal policy
primary balance
news
expectations
política fiscal
superávit primário
notícias
expectativas
title_short Fiscal policy and expectations in Brazil
title_full Fiscal policy and expectations in Brazil
title_fullStr Fiscal policy and expectations in Brazil
title_full_unstemmed Fiscal policy and expectations in Brazil
title_sort Fiscal policy and expectations in Brazil
author Costa Filho, Adonias Evaristo da
author_facet Costa Filho, Adonias Evaristo da
author_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Costa Filho, Adonias Evaristo da
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv fiscal policy
primary balance
news
expectations
política fiscal
superávit primário
notícias
expectativas
topic fiscal policy
primary balance
news
expectations
política fiscal
superávit primário
notícias
expectativas
description This paper studies the effects of fiscal news on the Brazilian economy, building on the new literature that seeks to identify fiscal policy shocks through information from professional forecasts. I build a term structureof primary balance expectations in Brazil, and estimate fiscal reaction functions for different maturities. Primary balance forecasts are decomposed into an expected and unexpected component, based on predicted and residuals obtained from the reaction functions. Expected and unexpected fiscal news are identified respectively as the first factor of the predicted and residual series from the reaction functions, aiming to capture the news that are likely to persist over the forecast horizon. Although with substantial uncertainty, fiscal tightening news induce a short-lived increase in growth, fall in inflation, decline in the real wage and a depreciation of the real exchange rate.
publishDate 2018
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2018-09-01
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/128459
10.11606/1980-5330/ea128459
url https://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/128459
identifier_str_mv 10.11606/1980-5330/ea128459
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/128459/160424
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2018 Economia Aplicada
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2018 Economia Aplicada
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade de São Paulo, FEA-RP/USP
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade de São Paulo, FEA-RP/USP
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Economia Aplicada; Vol. 22 No. 3 (2018); 27-52
Economia Aplicada; Vol. 22 Núm. 3 (2018); 27-52
Economia Aplicada; v. 22 n. 3 (2018); 27-52
1980-5330
1413-8050
reponame:Economia Aplicada
instname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
instacron:USP
instname_str Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
instacron_str USP
institution USP
reponame_str Economia Aplicada
collection Economia Aplicada
repository.name.fl_str_mv Economia Aplicada - Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv ||revecap@usp.br
_version_ 1800221695597871104

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