Fiscal policy and expectations in Brazil
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2018 |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Economia Aplicada |
Texto Completo: | https://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/128459 |
Resumo: | This paper studies the effects of fiscal news on the Brazilian economy, building on the new literature that seeks to identify fiscal policy shocks through information from professional forecasts. I build a term structureof primary balance expectations in Brazil, and estimate fiscal reaction functions for different maturities. Primary balance forecasts are decomposed into an expected and unexpected component, based on predicted and residuals obtained from the reaction functions. Expected and unexpected fiscal news are identified respectively as the first factor of the predicted and residual series from the reaction functions, aiming to capture the news that are likely to persist over the forecast horizon. Although with substantial uncertainty, fiscal tightening news induce a short-lived increase in growth, fall in inflation, decline in the real wage and a depreciation of the real exchange rate. |
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Fiscal policy and expectations in Brazilfiscal policyprimary balancenewsexpectationspolítica fiscalsuperávit primárionotíciasexpectativasThis paper studies the effects of fiscal news on the Brazilian economy, building on the new literature that seeks to identify fiscal policy shocks through information from professional forecasts. I build a term structureof primary balance expectations in Brazil, and estimate fiscal reaction functions for different maturities. Primary balance forecasts are decomposed into an expected and unexpected component, based on predicted and residuals obtained from the reaction functions. Expected and unexpected fiscal news are identified respectively as the first factor of the predicted and residual series from the reaction functions, aiming to capture the news that are likely to persist over the forecast horizon. Although with substantial uncertainty, fiscal tightening news induce a short-lived increase in growth, fall in inflation, decline in the real wage and a depreciation of the real exchange rate.Este artigo estuda os efeitos de notícias fiscais sobre a economia brasileira, baseando-se na nova literatura que procura identificar choques na política fiscal por meio de informações de previsões profissionais. É construída uma estrutura a termo de expectativas de superávit primário para o Brasil, e estimadas funções de reação para diferentes maturidades. As notícias fiscais são decompostas em um componente esperado e outro não esperado, baseados nos valores previstos e nos resíduos das funções de reação. Notícias fiscais esperadas e não esperadas são identificadas respectivamente como o primeiro fator das séries de valores previstos e dos resíduos das funções de reação, procurando capturar as notícias que tendem a persistir no horizonte de previsão. Embora com substancial incerteza, notícias sobre um aperto fiscal provocam um aumento de curto prazo no produto, uma queda da inflação, um declínio do salário real e uma depreciação da taxa de câmbio real. Universidade de São Paulo, FEA-RP/USP2018-09-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/12845910.11606/1980-5330/ea128459Economia Aplicada; Vol. 22 No. 3 (2018); 27-52Economia Aplicada; Vol. 22 Núm. 3 (2018); 27-52Economia Aplicada; v. 22 n. 3 (2018); 27-521980-53301413-8050reponame:Economia Aplicadainstname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP)instacron:USPenghttps://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/128459/160424Copyright (c) 2018 Economia Aplicadainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessCosta Filho, Adonias Evaristo da2020-08-05T04:57:01Zoai:revistas.usp.br:article/128459Revistahttps://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoaPUBhttps://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/oai||revecap@usp.br1980-53301413-8050opendoar:2023-09-13T12:17:07.717108Economia Aplicada - Universidade de São Paulo (USP)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Fiscal policy and expectations in Brazil |
title |
Fiscal policy and expectations in Brazil |
spellingShingle |
Fiscal policy and expectations in Brazil Costa Filho, Adonias Evaristo da fiscal policy primary balance news expectations política fiscal superávit primário notícias expectativas |
title_short |
Fiscal policy and expectations in Brazil |
title_full |
Fiscal policy and expectations in Brazil |
title_fullStr |
Fiscal policy and expectations in Brazil |
title_full_unstemmed |
Fiscal policy and expectations in Brazil |
title_sort |
Fiscal policy and expectations in Brazil |
author |
Costa Filho, Adonias Evaristo da |
author_facet |
Costa Filho, Adonias Evaristo da |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Costa Filho, Adonias Evaristo da |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
fiscal policy primary balance news expectations política fiscal superávit primário notícias expectativas |
topic |
fiscal policy primary balance news expectations política fiscal superávit primário notícias expectativas |
description |
This paper studies the effects of fiscal news on the Brazilian economy, building on the new literature that seeks to identify fiscal policy shocks through information from professional forecasts. I build a term structureof primary balance expectations in Brazil, and estimate fiscal reaction functions for different maturities. Primary balance forecasts are decomposed into an expected and unexpected component, based on predicted and residuals obtained from the reaction functions. Expected and unexpected fiscal news are identified respectively as the first factor of the predicted and residual series from the reaction functions, aiming to capture the news that are likely to persist over the forecast horizon. Although with substantial uncertainty, fiscal tightening news induce a short-lived increase in growth, fall in inflation, decline in the real wage and a depreciation of the real exchange rate. |
publishDate |
2018 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2018-09-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/128459 10.11606/1980-5330/ea128459 |
url |
https://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/128459 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.11606/1980-5330/ea128459 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/128459/160424 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2018 Economia Aplicada info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2018 Economia Aplicada |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade de São Paulo, FEA-RP/USP |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade de São Paulo, FEA-RP/USP |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Economia Aplicada; Vol. 22 No. 3 (2018); 27-52 Economia Aplicada; Vol. 22 Núm. 3 (2018); 27-52 Economia Aplicada; v. 22 n. 3 (2018); 27-52 1980-5330 1413-8050 reponame:Economia Aplicada instname:Universidade de São Paulo (USP) instacron:USP |
instname_str |
Universidade de São Paulo (USP) |
instacron_str |
USP |
institution |
USP |
reponame_str |
Economia Aplicada |
collection |
Economia Aplicada |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Economia Aplicada - Universidade de São Paulo (USP) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
||revecap@usp.br |
_version_ |
1800221695597871104 |