Fundamental sources of risk and the decline of carry trade returns

• Autor(a) principal: Ferreira, Giuliano de Queiroz
• Data de Publicação: 2023
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da USP
• Texto Completo: https://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/96/96131/tde-15092023-151705/
• topic: Carry trade; Carry trade; Currency excess returns; Excesso de retorno moeda; Exchange rates; Interest rates; Mercado de ações; Stock markets; Taxa de câmbio; Taxa de juros

The search for a connection between macroeconomic fluctuations and movements in asset prices is a research topic that has received growing attention in the finance literature. The importance of exploring this theme extends not only to policymakers, but also to the financial industry. In this context, this research sought to investigate the relationship between the fundamental sources of risk and the pricing of international assets. We find evidence that fluctuations in the investment-specific technology, the marginal efficiency of investment and the growth of money stock are key sources of currency risk. We develop an open economy DSGE model in which these three processes become risk factors that drive currency excess returns. These new factors prove to be empirically relevant for pricing currency excess returns. The risk prices associated with these factors are positive and significant. We find that currencies from countries with low levels of investment-specific technology, low levels of the marginal efficiency of investment and high money growth rates earn higher excess returns. Furthermore, we show that currencies from countries with low exposure to the global component of the three processes earn higher excess returns. Our empirical evidence accounts for both the cross-section of average excess returns (portfolios) and individual currency payoffs with the US Dollar. We also find some evidence that our proposed risk factors can also explain foreign equity excess returns.