Who gets the anti-establishment vote? Crisis, elections, and populism in Western Europe

• Autor(a) principal: Falabella, Leonardo Jamel Edim
• Data de Publicação: 2017
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da USP
• Texto Completo: http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/101/101131/tde-09112017-150834/
• topic: Electoral success; Esquerda radical; Extrema direita; Extreme right; Polarização; Polarization; Populism; Populismo; Radical left; Sucesso eleitoral

Why does the extreme right grow in some parts of Europe while the radical left rises in others? In studies about both party groups, the hypothesis that economic distress provides them with opportunity is frequently tested. Yet, little effort has been employed in comparing their performances under different economic conditions. This article fills this gap through panel data analysis, with disaggregated data from eight countries in election years between 2002 and 2011. It finds that voting for extreme right parties increases significantly after the financial crisis outbreak of 2008, with no corresponding evidence for radical left parties. Also, extreme right support has a positive link to regional GDP per capita and a negative link to unemployment rates. In contrast, radical left parties perform better where unemployment is higher. The results suggest that economic downturns are mostly beneficial to extreme right parties, but this effect is increasingly neutralized in regions of high unemployment.