STUDY OF THE MAXIMUM DAILY RAINS IN THE CITY OF BARREIRAS/BA THROUGH TIME SERIES METHODOLOGY
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Data de Publicação: | 2020 |
Outros Autores: | , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Revista da Universidade Vale do Rio Verde (Online) |
Texto Completo: | http://periodicos.unincor.br/index.php/revistaunincor/article/view/5971 |
Resumo: | Natural disasters are increasingly present in everyday society. In Brazil the most common natural disasters are landslides and floods which are phenomena directly related to hydrological variables such as rainfall. The study and statistical monitoring of the meteorological regime of a given region, in particular, daily maximum rainfall data can provide important information to guide public disaster prevention policies, as well as reduce the human vulnerability of the local population. The main objective of this paper was to analyze a historical series related to the maximum daily rainfall of the city of Barreiras/BA from january 1970 to may 2019 through time series analysis. Results of applied tests indicated the presence of seasonality and also that there is no trend in the series. Given this, the SARIMA model class was considered the most suitable for modeling and the adjusted models presented good predictions allowing the identification of patterns in the series. |
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STUDY OF THE MAXIMUM DAILY RAINS IN THE CITY OF BARREIRAS/BA THROUGH TIME SERIES METHODOLOGYFloods. Bahia. Natural disasters. SARIMANatural disasters are increasingly present in everyday society. In Brazil the most common natural disasters are landslides and floods which are phenomena directly related to hydrological variables such as rainfall. The study and statistical monitoring of the meteorological regime of a given region, in particular, daily maximum rainfall data can provide important information to guide public disaster prevention policies, as well as reduce the human vulnerability of the local population. The main objective of this paper was to analyze a historical series related to the maximum daily rainfall of the city of Barreiras/BA from january 1970 to may 2019 through time series analysis. Results of applied tests indicated the presence of seasonality and also that there is no trend in the series. Given this, the SARIMA model class was considered the most suitable for modeling and the adjusted models presented good predictions allowing the identification of patterns in the series.ABECKelly Pereira de Lima, CNPQMedeiros, Elias Silva de; Universidade Federal da Grande Dourados – UFGD DocenteSilva, Alessandra Querino da; Universidade Federal da Grande Dourados – UFGD DocenteOliveira, Luciano Antonio de; Universidade Federal da Grande Dourados – UFGD DocenteBicalho, Carolina Cristina; Universidade Estadual de Mato Grosso do Sul DocenteLima, Kelly Pereira de; Universidade Federal de Lavras – UFLA Pesquisadora2020-10-06info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttp://periodicos.unincor.br/index.php/revistaunincor/article/view/597110.5892/ruvrd.v1i18.5971Revista da Universidade Vale do Rio Verde; v. 18, n. 1 (2020): Revista da Universidade Vale do Rio Verde; 287-2952236-53621517-027610.5892/ruvrd.v1i18reponame:Revista da Universidade Vale do Rio Verde (Online)instname:Universidade Vale do Rio Verde (UNINCOR)instacron:UVRVporhttp://periodicos.unincor.br/index.php/revistaunincor/article/view/5971/pdf_995http://periodicos.unincor.br/index.php/revistaunincor/article/downloadSuppFile/5971/53610.5892/ruvrd.v18i1.5971.g1095200110.5892/ruvrd.v1i18.5971.s536Direitos autorais 2021 Revista da Universidade Vale do Rio Verdeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2022-03-30T13:42:12Zoai:ojs.teste.unincor.br:article/5971Revistahttp://periodicos.unincor.br/index.php/revistaunincor/indexPRIhttp://periodicos.unincor.br/index.php/revistaunincor/oairevistaunincor@unincor.edu.br2236-53621517-0276opendoar:2022-05-31T14:30:27.106243Revista da Universidade Vale do Rio Verde (Online) - Universidade Vale do Rio Verde (UNINCOR)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
STUDY OF THE MAXIMUM DAILY RAINS IN THE CITY OF BARREIRAS/BA THROUGH TIME SERIES METHODOLOGY |
title |
STUDY OF THE MAXIMUM DAILY RAINS IN THE CITY OF BARREIRAS/BA THROUGH TIME SERIES METHODOLOGY |
spellingShingle |
STUDY OF THE MAXIMUM DAILY RAINS IN THE CITY OF BARREIRAS/BA THROUGH TIME SERIES METHODOLOGY Medeiros, Elias Silva de; Universidade Federal da Grande Dourados – UFGD Docente Floods. Bahia. Natural disasters. SARIMA |
title_short |
STUDY OF THE MAXIMUM DAILY RAINS IN THE CITY OF BARREIRAS/BA THROUGH TIME SERIES METHODOLOGY |
title_full |
STUDY OF THE MAXIMUM DAILY RAINS IN THE CITY OF BARREIRAS/BA THROUGH TIME SERIES METHODOLOGY |
title_fullStr |
STUDY OF THE MAXIMUM DAILY RAINS IN THE CITY OF BARREIRAS/BA THROUGH TIME SERIES METHODOLOGY |
title_full_unstemmed |
STUDY OF THE MAXIMUM DAILY RAINS IN THE CITY OF BARREIRAS/BA THROUGH TIME SERIES METHODOLOGY |
title_sort |
STUDY OF THE MAXIMUM DAILY RAINS IN THE CITY OF BARREIRAS/BA THROUGH TIME SERIES METHODOLOGY |
author |
Medeiros, Elias Silva de; Universidade Federal da Grande Dourados – UFGD Docente |
author_facet |
Medeiros, Elias Silva de; Universidade Federal da Grande Dourados – UFGD Docente Silva, Alessandra Querino da; Universidade Federal da Grande Dourados – UFGD Docente Oliveira, Luciano Antonio de; Universidade Federal da Grande Dourados – UFGD Docente Bicalho, Carolina Cristina; Universidade Estadual de Mato Grosso do Sul Docente Lima, Kelly Pereira de; Universidade Federal de Lavras – UFLA Pesquisadora |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Silva, Alessandra Querino da; Universidade Federal da Grande Dourados – UFGD Docente Oliveira, Luciano Antonio de; Universidade Federal da Grande Dourados – UFGD Docente Bicalho, Carolina Cristina; Universidade Estadual de Mato Grosso do Sul Docente Lima, Kelly Pereira de; Universidade Federal de Lavras – UFLA Pesquisadora |
author2_role |
author author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Kelly Pereira de Lima, CNPQ |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Medeiros, Elias Silva de; Universidade Federal da Grande Dourados – UFGD Docente Silva, Alessandra Querino da; Universidade Federal da Grande Dourados – UFGD Docente Oliveira, Luciano Antonio de; Universidade Federal da Grande Dourados – UFGD Docente Bicalho, Carolina Cristina; Universidade Estadual de Mato Grosso do Sul Docente Lima, Kelly Pereira de; Universidade Federal de Lavras – UFLA Pesquisadora |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Floods. Bahia. Natural disasters. SARIMA |
topic |
Floods. Bahia. Natural disasters. SARIMA |
description |
Natural disasters are increasingly present in everyday society. In Brazil the most common natural disasters are landslides and floods which are phenomena directly related to hydrological variables such as rainfall. The study and statistical monitoring of the meteorological regime of a given region, in particular, daily maximum rainfall data can provide important information to guide public disaster prevention policies, as well as reduce the human vulnerability of the local population. The main objective of this paper was to analyze a historical series related to the maximum daily rainfall of the city of Barreiras/BA from january 1970 to may 2019 through time series analysis. Results of applied tests indicated the presence of seasonality and also that there is no trend in the series. Given this, the SARIMA model class was considered the most suitable for modeling and the adjusted models presented good predictions allowing the identification of patterns in the series. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-10-06 |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
|
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://periodicos.unincor.br/index.php/revistaunincor/article/view/5971 10.5892/ruvrd.v1i18.5971 |
url |
http://periodicos.unincor.br/index.php/revistaunincor/article/view/5971 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.5892/ruvrd.v1i18.5971 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
http://periodicos.unincor.br/index.php/revistaunincor/article/view/5971/pdf_995 http://periodicos.unincor.br/index.php/revistaunincor/article/downloadSuppFile/5971/536 10.5892/ruvrd.v18i1.5971.g10952001 10.5892/ruvrd.v1i18.5971.s536 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Direitos autorais 2021 Revista da Universidade Vale do Rio Verde info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Direitos autorais 2021 Revista da Universidade Vale do Rio Verde |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
ABEC |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
ABEC |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Revista da Universidade Vale do Rio Verde; v. 18, n. 1 (2020): Revista da Universidade Vale do Rio Verde; 287-295 2236-5362 1517-0276 10.5892/ruvrd.v1i18 reponame:Revista da Universidade Vale do Rio Verde (Online) instname:Universidade Vale do Rio Verde (UNINCOR) instacron:UVRV |
instname_str |
Universidade Vale do Rio Verde (UNINCOR) |
instacron_str |
UVRV |
institution |
UVRV |
reponame_str |
Revista da Universidade Vale do Rio Verde (Online) |
collection |
Revista da Universidade Vale do Rio Verde (Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Revista da Universidade Vale do Rio Verde (Online) - Universidade Vale do Rio Verde (UNINCOR) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
revistaunincor@unincor.edu.br |
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1797051200953122816 |