The Bigger, the Better: Coalitions in the GATT/WTO

• Autor(a) principal: Cepaluni,Gabriel
• Data de Publicação: 2012
• Outros Autores: Galdino,Manoel, Oliveira,Amâncio Jorge de
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Brazilian Political Science Review
• Texto Completo: http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1981-38212012000200002
• topic: international coalitions; bayesian analysis; multilateralism; economic openness; international negotiations

What does it take to make a coalition successful? Bigger coalitions are more likely to be successful because the GATT/WTO is a consensus-based institution and countries are informally penalized if they isolate themselves. Through a Bayesian statistical analysis, the article corroborates the above hypothesis. To further investigate the research question, qualitative case studies of the G-10 in the Uruguay Round and the Public Health Coalition in the Doha Round are conducted. These cases show that the more convincing the framing of a position, the better are the chances of coalitions keeping a large number of followers and supporters, thereby affecting their odds of success. By building a unique database and applying a new research design to the topic, the study rigorously tests theories about coalitions that had previously only been proposed but not empirically analyzed.