Monte Carlo simulation applied to order economic analysis

• Autor(a) principal: Saraiva Júnior,Abraão Freires
• Data de Publicação: 2011
• Outros Autores: Tabosa,Cristiane de Mesquita, Costa,Reinaldo Pacheco da
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Production
• Texto Completo: http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-65132011000100013
• topic: Order acceptance; Contribution margin; Monte Carlo simulation

The use of mathematical and statistical methods can help managers to deal with decision-making difficulties in the business environment. Some of these decisions are related to productive capacity optimization in order to obtain greater economic gains for the company. Within this perspective, this study aims to present the establishment of metrics to support economic decisions related to process or not orders in a company whose products have great variability in variable direct costs per unit that generates accounting uncertainties. To achieve this objective, is proposed a five-step method built from the integration of Management Accounting and Operations Research techniques, emphasizing the Monte Carlo simulation. The method is applied from a didactic example which uses real data achieved through a field research carried out in a plastic products industry that employ recycled material. Finally, it is concluded that the Monte Carlo simulation is effective for treating variable direct costs per unit variability and that the proposed method is useful to support decision-making related to order acceptance.