Demand forecast: simulation in a company of the segment of articles for dance, fitness, swimming and sportswear

• Autor(a) principal: Candeias, Tamires Mazaro
• Data de Publicação: 2020
• Outros Autores: Olivo, Andréia de Menezes, Lemos, Felipe Kesrouani
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Revista Produção Online
• Texto Completo: https://www.producaoonline.org.br/rpo/article/view/3343
• topic: Demand Forescast. Quantitative Methods. Production Planning; Programming and Control.; Previsão de Demanda. Métodos Quantitativos. Planejamento; Programação e Controle da Produção.

The sportswear industry proves to be a promising market with great potential for growth. In this sense, this work has as its theme the most appropriate demand forecasting process as the product families of a company in the segment of articles for dance, fitness, swimming and sportswear. The study considered the Simple Average, Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, Exponential Smoothing with Trend - Method of Holt and Exponential Smoothing with Trend and Seasonality - Holt Winters Method, for the simulation of demand forecast, through spread sheets of Microsoft Excel with the help of macro in VBA. The results show that the forecasts presented the lowest absolute percentage error (MAPE) through simulation in Exponential Smoothing with Trend and Seasonality - Holt Winters Method due to its greater sensitivity to demand characteristics, the second the best method observed in most product families was the Smoothing with Trend - Method of Holt and the Simple Average the method that presented the worst prediction indexes, with a high percentage of error.