When does it end? Monte Carlo Simulation Applied to Risk Management in Defense Logistics’ Procurement Processes
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2019 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Brazilian Journal of Operations & Production Management (Online) |
Texto Completo: | https://bjopm.org.br/bjopm/article/view/739 |
Resumo: | Goal: The main objective of this research was to evaluate the application of the Monte Carlo simulation, in comparison with other estimation methodology, in order to verify if it would be possible to apply this tool to improve the risk perception of deadlines during a procurement process for logistical support of defense projects. Methodology: By means of collected data from 2015 to 2017, a comparison was conducted among deadlines of real procurement processes versus simulated processes with the use of the Monte Carlo simulation. Results: The performance analysis of the Monte Carlo simulation suggests that it could be possible to apply it to the first phase of risk management in order to improve the risk perception of deadlines during a procurement process for logistical support of defense projects. Limitations of the investigation: The main limitation of the research relates to the database analyzed, which involved three different modalities of Bidding Processes. Practical implications: The data from this research reveals that the Monte Carlo simulation can be used as an effective tool for advising the decision maker and, mainly, the managers of internal control about aspects of corporate risk management in public organizations. Originality/Value: This research presents an original contribution to corporate governance related to risk management, which is not commonly seen in the Brazilian public sector. |
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Brazilian Journal of Operations & Production Management (Online) |
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When does it end? Monte Carlo Simulation Applied to Risk Management in Defense Logistics’ Procurement ProcessesLogisticsRisk ManagementMonte Carlo SimulationGoal: The main objective of this research was to evaluate the application of the Monte Carlo simulation, in comparison with other estimation methodology, in order to verify if it would be possible to apply this tool to improve the risk perception of deadlines during a procurement process for logistical support of defense projects. Methodology: By means of collected data from 2015 to 2017, a comparison was conducted among deadlines of real procurement processes versus simulated processes with the use of the Monte Carlo simulation. Results: The performance analysis of the Monte Carlo simulation suggests that it could be possible to apply it to the first phase of risk management in order to improve the risk perception of deadlines during a procurement process for logistical support of defense projects. Limitations of the investigation: The main limitation of the research relates to the database analyzed, which involved three different modalities of Bidding Processes. Practical implications: The data from this research reveals that the Monte Carlo simulation can be used as an effective tool for advising the decision maker and, mainly, the managers of internal control about aspects of corporate risk management in public organizations. Originality/Value: This research presents an original contribution to corporate governance related to risk management, which is not commonly seen in the Brazilian public sector.Brazilian Association for Industrial Engineering and Operations Management (ABEPRO)2019-03-07info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionPeer-reviewed Articletext/htmlapplication/pdfhttps://bjopm.org.br/bjopm/article/view/73910.14488/BJOPM.2019.v16.n1.a14Brazilian Journal of Operations & Production Management; Vol. 16 No. 1 (2019): March, 2019; 149-1562237-8960reponame:Brazilian Journal of Operations & Production Management (Online)instname:Associação Brasileira de Engenharia de Produção (ABEPRO)instacron:ABEPROenghttps://bjopm.org.br/bjopm/article/view/739/807https://bjopm.org.br/bjopm/article/view/739/813Copyright (c) 2019 Brazilian Journal of Operations & Production Managementinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessLaudares, Abel de CastroRicco, Maria Filomena FontesSilveira dos Santos, Rodrigo Antônio2021-07-13T14:14:22Zoai:ojs.bjopm.org.br:article/739Revistahttps://bjopm.org.br/bjopmONGhttps://bjopm.org.br/bjopm/oaibjopm.journal@gmail.com2237-89601679-8171opendoar:2023-03-13T09:45:21.135815Brazilian Journal of Operations & Production Management (Online) - Associação Brasileira de Engenharia de Produção (ABEPRO)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
When does it end? Monte Carlo Simulation Applied to Risk Management in Defense Logistics’ Procurement Processes |
title |
When does it end? Monte Carlo Simulation Applied to Risk Management in Defense Logistics’ Procurement Processes |
spellingShingle |
When does it end? Monte Carlo Simulation Applied to Risk Management in Defense Logistics’ Procurement Processes Laudares, Abel de Castro Logistics Risk Management Monte Carlo Simulation |
title_short |
When does it end? Monte Carlo Simulation Applied to Risk Management in Defense Logistics’ Procurement Processes |
title_full |
When does it end? Monte Carlo Simulation Applied to Risk Management in Defense Logistics’ Procurement Processes |
title_fullStr |
When does it end? Monte Carlo Simulation Applied to Risk Management in Defense Logistics’ Procurement Processes |
title_full_unstemmed |
When does it end? Monte Carlo Simulation Applied to Risk Management in Defense Logistics’ Procurement Processes |
title_sort |
When does it end? Monte Carlo Simulation Applied to Risk Management in Defense Logistics’ Procurement Processes |
author |
Laudares, Abel de Castro |
author_facet |
Laudares, Abel de Castro Ricco, Maria Filomena Fontes Silveira dos Santos, Rodrigo Antônio |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Ricco, Maria Filomena Fontes Silveira dos Santos, Rodrigo Antônio |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Laudares, Abel de Castro Ricco, Maria Filomena Fontes Silveira dos Santos, Rodrigo Antônio |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Logistics Risk Management Monte Carlo Simulation |
topic |
Logistics Risk Management Monte Carlo Simulation |
description |
Goal: The main objective of this research was to evaluate the application of the Monte Carlo simulation, in comparison with other estimation methodology, in order to verify if it would be possible to apply this tool to improve the risk perception of deadlines during a procurement process for logistical support of defense projects. Methodology: By means of collected data from 2015 to 2017, a comparison was conducted among deadlines of real procurement processes versus simulated processes with the use of the Monte Carlo simulation. Results: The performance analysis of the Monte Carlo simulation suggests that it could be possible to apply it to the first phase of risk management in order to improve the risk perception of deadlines during a procurement process for logistical support of defense projects. Limitations of the investigation: The main limitation of the research relates to the database analyzed, which involved three different modalities of Bidding Processes. Practical implications: The data from this research reveals that the Monte Carlo simulation can be used as an effective tool for advising the decision maker and, mainly, the managers of internal control about aspects of corporate risk management in public organizations. Originality/Value: This research presents an original contribution to corporate governance related to risk management, which is not commonly seen in the Brazilian public sector. |
publishDate |
2019 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2019-03-07 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Peer-reviewed Article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://bjopm.org.br/bjopm/article/view/739 10.14488/BJOPM.2019.v16.n1.a14 |
url |
https://bjopm.org.br/bjopm/article/view/739 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.14488/BJOPM.2019.v16.n1.a14 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://bjopm.org.br/bjopm/article/view/739/807 https://bjopm.org.br/bjopm/article/view/739/813 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2019 Brazilian Journal of Operations & Production Management info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2019 Brazilian Journal of Operations & Production Management |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
text/html application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Brazilian Association for Industrial Engineering and Operations Management (ABEPRO) |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Brazilian Association for Industrial Engineering and Operations Management (ABEPRO) |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Brazilian Journal of Operations & Production Management; Vol. 16 No. 1 (2019): March, 2019; 149-156 2237-8960 reponame:Brazilian Journal of Operations & Production Management (Online) instname:Associação Brasileira de Engenharia de Produção (ABEPRO) instacron:ABEPRO |
instname_str |
Associação Brasileira de Engenharia de Produção (ABEPRO) |
instacron_str |
ABEPRO |
institution |
ABEPRO |
reponame_str |
Brazilian Journal of Operations & Production Management (Online) |
collection |
Brazilian Journal of Operations & Production Management (Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Brazilian Journal of Operations & Production Management (Online) - Associação Brasileira de Engenharia de Produção (ABEPRO) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
bjopm.journal@gmail.com |
_version_ |
1797051461376409600 |