Spatio-temporal modelling of climate-sensitive disease risk: towards an early warning system for dengue in Brazil.

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Lowe, Rachel
Data de Publicação: 2011
Outros Autores: Bailey, Trevor C., Stephenson, David B., Graham, Richard J., Coelho, Caio A. S., Carvalho, Marilia Sá, Barcellos, Christovam de Castro
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
Texto Completo: https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/3862
Resumo: University of Exeter. School of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences. Exter, Devon, UK
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spelling Lowe, RachelBailey, Trevor C.Stephenson, David B.Graham, Richard J.Coelho, Caio A. S.Carvalho, Marilia SáBarcellos, Christovam de Castro2012-04-24T17:59:55Z2012-04-24T17:59:55Z2011LOWE, Rachel et al. Spatio-temporal modelling of climate-sensitive disease risk: towards an early warning system for dengue in Brazil. Computers & Geosciences, v.37, n.3 p.371–381, Mar. 20110098-3004https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/386210.1016/j.cageo.2010.01.008engElsevierSpatio-temporal modelling of climate-sensitive disease risk: towards an early warning system for dengue in Brazil.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleUniversity of Exeter. School of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences. Exter, Devon, UKUniversity of Exeter. School of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences. Exter, Devon, UKUniversity of Exeter. School of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences. Exter, Devon, UKMet Office Hadley Centre. Exter, Devon, UKInstituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais. Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Cachoeira Paulista, SP, BrasilFundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto de Comunicação e Informação Cientifica e Tecnológica em Saúde. Laboratório de Informações em Saúde. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, BrasilFundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto de Comunicação e Informação Cientifica e Tecnológica em Saúde. Laboratório de Informações em Saúde. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, BrasilThis paper considers the potential for using seasonal climate forecasts in developing an early warning system for dengue fever epidemics in Brazil. In the first instance, a generalised linear model (GLM) is used to select climate and other covariates which are both readily available and prove significant in prediction of confirmed monthly dengue cases based on data collected across the whole of Brazil for the period January 2001 to December 2008 at the microregion level (typically consisting of one large city and several smaller municipalities). The covariates explored include temperature and precipitation data on a longitude–latitude grid with time lags relevant to dengue transmission, an El Niño Southern Oscillation index and other relevant socio-economic and environmental variables. A negative binomial model formulation is adopted in this model selection to allow for extra-Poisson variation (overdispersion) in the observed dengue counts caused by unknown/unobserved confounding factors and possible correlations in these effects in both time and space. Subsequently, the selected global model is refined in the context of the South East region of Brazil, where dengue predominates, by reverting to a Poisson framework and explicitly modelling the overdispersion through a combination of unstructured and spatio-temporal structured random effects. The resulting spatio-temporal hierarchical model (or GLMM—generalised linear mixed model) is implemented via a Bayesian framework using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Dengue predictions are found to be enhanced both spatially and temporally when using the GLMM and the Bayesian framework allows posterior predictive distributions for dengue cases to be derived, which can be useful for developing a dengue alert system. Using this model, we conclude that seasonal climate forecasts could have potential value in helping to predict dengue incidence months in advance of an epidemic in South East Brazil.Dengue/epidemiologiaPrevisão ClimatológicaConglomerados Espaço-TemporaisBrasilinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)instacron:FIOCRUZORIGINALSpatio-temporal modelling of climate-sensitive disease risk.pdfSpatio-temporal modelling of climate-sensitive disease risk.pdfapplication/pdf1510197https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/3862/1/Spatio-temporal%20modelling%20of%20climate-sensitive%20disease%20risk.pdf8bfd733032bb9cc00495840c1ee9e4beMD51LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-81648https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/3862/2/license.txte095249ac7cacefbfe39684dfe45e706MD52TEXTSpatio-temporal modelling of climate-sensitive disease risk.pdf.txtSpatio-temporal modelling of climate-sensitive disease risk.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain53393https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/3862/5/Spatio-temporal%20modelling%20of%20climate-sensitive%20disease%20risk.pdf.txt7ab70f7e9c62aa20d8b965c098298c05MD55THUMBNAILSpatio-temporal modelling of climate-sensitive disease risk.pdf.jpgSpatio-temporal modelling of climate-sensitive disease risk.pdf.jpgGenerated Thumbnailimage/jpeg2274https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/3862/4/Spatio-temporal%20modelling%20of%20climate-sensitive%20disease%20risk.pdf.jpg5b95cc4e711aa3d9e5ead6212db7e42eMD54icict/38622018-05-21 16:45:44.418oai:www.arca.fiocruz.br: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Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://www.arca.fiocruz.br/oai/requestrepositorio.arca@fiocruz.bropendoar:21352018-05-21T19:45:44Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA) - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)false
dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Spatio-temporal modelling of climate-sensitive disease risk: towards an early warning system for dengue in Brazil.
title Spatio-temporal modelling of climate-sensitive disease risk: towards an early warning system for dengue in Brazil.
spellingShingle Spatio-temporal modelling of climate-sensitive disease risk: towards an early warning system for dengue in Brazil.
Lowe, Rachel
Dengue/epidemiologia
Previsão Climatológica
Conglomerados Espaço-Temporais
Brasil
title_short Spatio-temporal modelling of climate-sensitive disease risk: towards an early warning system for dengue in Brazil.
title_full Spatio-temporal modelling of climate-sensitive disease risk: towards an early warning system for dengue in Brazil.
title_fullStr Spatio-temporal modelling of climate-sensitive disease risk: towards an early warning system for dengue in Brazil.
title_full_unstemmed Spatio-temporal modelling of climate-sensitive disease risk: towards an early warning system for dengue in Brazil.
title_sort Spatio-temporal modelling of climate-sensitive disease risk: towards an early warning system for dengue in Brazil.
author Lowe, Rachel
author_facet Lowe, Rachel
Bailey, Trevor C.
Stephenson, David B.
Graham, Richard J.
Coelho, Caio A. S.
Carvalho, Marilia Sá
Barcellos, Christovam de Castro
author_role author
author2 Bailey, Trevor C.
Stephenson, David B.
Graham, Richard J.
Coelho, Caio A. S.
Carvalho, Marilia Sá
Barcellos, Christovam de Castro
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Lowe, Rachel
Bailey, Trevor C.
Stephenson, David B.
Graham, Richard J.
Coelho, Caio A. S.
Carvalho, Marilia Sá
Barcellos, Christovam de Castro
dc.subject.decs.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Dengue/epidemiologia
Previsão Climatológica
Conglomerados Espaço-Temporais
Brasil
topic Dengue/epidemiologia
Previsão Climatológica
Conglomerados Espaço-Temporais
Brasil
description University of Exeter. School of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences. Exter, Devon, UK
publishDate 2011
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2011
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2012-04-24T17:59:55Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2012-04-24T17:59:55Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv LOWE, Rachel et al. Spatio-temporal modelling of climate-sensitive disease risk: towards an early warning system for dengue in Brazil. Computers & Geosciences, v.37, n.3 p.371–381, Mar. 2011
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/3862
dc.identifier.issn.none.fl_str_mv 0098-3004
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv 10.1016/j.cageo.2010.01.008
identifier_str_mv LOWE, Rachel et al. Spatio-temporal modelling of climate-sensitive disease risk: towards an early warning system for dengue in Brazil. Computers & Geosciences, v.37, n.3 p.371–381, Mar. 2011
0098-3004
10.1016/j.cageo.2010.01.008
url https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/3862
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
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dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
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