Zika in Rio de Janeiro: assessment of basic reproduction number and comparison with dengue outbreaks

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Villela, D. A. M.
Data de Publicação: 2017
Outros Autores: Bastos, L. S., DE Carvalho, L. M., Cruz, Oswaldo Gonçalves, Gomes, M. F. C., Durovni, B., Lemos, M. C., Saraceni, V., Coelho, F. C., Codeço, C. T.
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
Texto Completo: https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/18026
Resumo: CNPq e FAPERJ
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spelling Villela, D. A. M.Bastos, L. S.DE Carvalho, L. M.Cruz, Oswaldo GonçalvesGomes, M. F. C.Durovni, B.Lemos, M. C.Saraceni, V.Coelho, F. C.Codeço, C. T.2017-03-13T18:13:01Z2017-03-13T18:13:01Z2017VILLELA, D. A. M. et al. Zika in Rio de Janeiro: assessment of basic reproduction number and comparison with dengue outbreaks. Epidemiology & Infection, p.1-9, 2017.1469-4409https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/1802610.1017/S0950268817000358CNPq e FAPERJFundação Oswaldo Cruz. Presidência. Programa de Computação Científica. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Presidência. Programa de Computação Científica. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Presidência. Programa de Computação Científica. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil / University of Edinburgh. Institute of Evolutionary Biology. Edinburgh, UK.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Presidência. Programa de Computação Científica. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Presidência. Programa de Computação Científica. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Prefeitura do Rio de Janeiro. Secretaria Municipal de Saúde do Rio de Janeiro. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Prefeitura do Rio de Janeiro. Secretaria Municipal de Saúde do Rio de Janeiro. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Prefeitura do Rio de Janeiro. Secretaria Municipal de Saúde do Rio de Janeiro. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Fundação Getulio Vargas. Escola de Matemática Aplicada. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Presidência. Programa de Computação Científica. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Zika virus infection was declared a public health emergency of international concern in February 2016 in response to the outbreak in Brazil and its suspected link with congenital anomalies. In this study, we use notification data and disease natural history parameters to estimate the basic reproduction number (R 0) of Zika in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We also obtain estimates of R 0 of dengue from time series of dengue cases in the outbreaks registered in 2002 and 2012 in the city, when DENV-3 and DENV-4 serotypes, respectively, had just emerged. Our estimates of the basic reproduction number for Zika in Rio de Janeiro based on surveillance notifications (R 0 = 2·33, 95% CI: 1·97-2·97) were higher than those obtained for dengue in the city (year 2002: R 0 = 1·70 [1·50-2·02]; year 2012: R 0 = 1·25 [1·18-1·36]). Given the role of Aedes aegypti as vector of both the Zika and dengue viruses, we also derive R 0 of Zika as a function of both dengue reproduction number and entomological and epidemiological parameters for dengue and Zika. Using the dengue outbreaks from previous years allowed us to estimate the potential R 0 of Zika. Our estimates were closely in agreement with our first Zika's R 0 estimation from notification data. Hence, these results validate deriving the potential risk of Zika transmission in areas with recurring dengue outbreaks. Whether transmission routes other than vector-based can sustain a Zika epidemic still deserves attention, but our results suggest that the Zika outbreak in Rio de Janeiro emerged due to population susceptibility and ubiquitous presence of Ae. aegypti.porCrossMarkNúmero de reprodução básicaDengueZikaBasic reproduction numberDengueZikaZika virusDengueZika in Rio de Janeiro: assessment of basic reproduction number and comparison with dengue outbreaksinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)instacron:FIOCRUZLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82991https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/bitstream/icict/18026/1/license.txt5a560609d32a3863062d77ff32785d58MD51ORIGINALve_D. A. M. Villela_etal_Presidencia_2017.pdfve_D. 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dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Zika in Rio de Janeiro: assessment of basic reproduction number and comparison with dengue outbreaks
title Zika in Rio de Janeiro: assessment of basic reproduction number and comparison with dengue outbreaks
spellingShingle Zika in Rio de Janeiro: assessment of basic reproduction number and comparison with dengue outbreaks
Villela, D. A. M.
Número de reprodução básica
Dengue
Zika
Basic reproduction number
Dengue
Zika
Zika virus
Dengue
title_short Zika in Rio de Janeiro: assessment of basic reproduction number and comparison with dengue outbreaks
title_full Zika in Rio de Janeiro: assessment of basic reproduction number and comparison with dengue outbreaks
title_fullStr Zika in Rio de Janeiro: assessment of basic reproduction number and comparison with dengue outbreaks
title_full_unstemmed Zika in Rio de Janeiro: assessment of basic reproduction number and comparison with dengue outbreaks
title_sort Zika in Rio de Janeiro: assessment of basic reproduction number and comparison with dengue outbreaks
author Villela, D. A. M.
author_facet Villela, D. A. M.
Bastos, L. S.
DE Carvalho, L. M.
Cruz, Oswaldo Gonçalves
Gomes, M. F. C.
Durovni, B.
Lemos, M. C.
Saraceni, V.
Coelho, F. C.
Codeço, C. T.
author_role author
author2 Bastos, L. S.
DE Carvalho, L. M.
Cruz, Oswaldo Gonçalves
Gomes, M. F. C.
Durovni, B.
Lemos, M. C.
Saraceni, V.
Coelho, F. C.
Codeço, C. T.
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Villela, D. A. M.
Bastos, L. S.
DE Carvalho, L. M.
Cruz, Oswaldo Gonçalves
Gomes, M. F. C.
Durovni, B.
Lemos, M. C.
Saraceni, V.
Coelho, F. C.
Codeço, C. T.
dc.subject.other.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Número de reprodução básica
Dengue
Zika
topic Número de reprodução básica
Dengue
Zika
Basic reproduction number
Dengue
Zika
Zika virus
Dengue
dc.subject.en.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Basic reproduction number
Dengue
Zika
dc.subject.decs.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Zika virus
Dengue
description CNPq e FAPERJ
publishDate 2017
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2017-03-13T18:13:01Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2017-03-13T18:13:01Z
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2017
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv VILLELA, D. A. M. et al. Zika in Rio de Janeiro: assessment of basic reproduction number and comparison with dengue outbreaks. Epidemiology & Infection, p.1-9, 2017.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/18026
dc.identifier.issn.pt_BR.fl_str_mv 1469-4409
dc.identifier.eissn.none.fl_str_mv 10.1017/S0950268817000358
identifier_str_mv VILLELA, D. A. M. et al. Zika in Rio de Janeiro: assessment of basic reproduction number and comparison with dengue outbreaks. Epidemiology & Infection, p.1-9, 2017.
1469-4409
10.1017/S0950268817000358
url https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/18026
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv CrossMark
publisher.none.fl_str_mv CrossMark
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)
instacron:FIOCRUZ
instname_str Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)
instacron_str FIOCRUZ
institution FIOCRUZ
reponame_str Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
collection Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
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