Efeitos da taxa de câmbio na poupança interna: análise teórica e evidências empíricas para o caso brasileiro

• Autor(a) principal: Gala, Paulo
• Data de Publicação: 2010
• Outros Autores: Araújo, Eliane Cristina de, Bresser-Pereira, Luiz Carlos
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
• Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10438/6625
• topic: Real exchange rate; Savings; Investment and economic development; Poupança e investimento - Brasil; Desenvolvimento econômico; Câmbio; Economia; Economia

This paper provides theoretical and empirical elements to analyze the relation between real exchange rates and domestic savings. We show from a theoretical perspective how a competitive exchange rate may stimulate domestic savings by avoiding consumption booms based on currency overvaluation and by increasing profits in the tradable sector. Our baseline model shows from a short run perspective how a competitive exchange rate may stimulate investment, exports, profits and thus domestic savings. We also present econometric evidence for the Brazilian case which shows a robust connection between real exchange rates and domestic savings as a share of GDP. The econometric analysis carried out for the Brazilian economy between indicates that there is a stable relationship between long-term exchange rate and domestic savings, and depreciation on the real exchange rate have positive and significant impact on domestic savings in this period. Furthermore, the results confirm that foreign savings has a degree of displacement in domestic savings