Applying the daily inflation to forecast the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA)
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2015 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10438/13871 |
Resumo: | Since 2006, the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) calculates a daily version of the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA), the official inflation index, calculated under the responsibility of the IBGE, the federal statistics agency in Brazil. Ardeo et. al. (2013) showed the importance of this indicator and how this daily information can be useful to a country that had high level of inflation. Despite the fact that this measure is a fair antecedent variable for inflation, due to some peculiarities concerning the collection period, the initial daily rating may not anticipate some effects, such as seasonal factors and the increase in prices controlled by the Brazilian Government. Hence, by taking into account the Monitor´s daily time series, this paper intends to forecast the IPCA for the first six days of data collection. The results showed up that the proposal technic improved the IPCA forecast in the beginning of data collection. |
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Ferreira, Pedro CavalcantiCarneiro, JulianaBraz, AndréInstitutos::IBRE2015-07-30T17:32:04Z2015-07-30T17:32:04Z2015-06-01http://hdl.handle.net/10438/13871Since 2006, the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) calculates a daily version of the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA), the official inflation index, calculated under the responsibility of the IBGE, the federal statistics agency in Brazil. Ardeo et. al. (2013) showed the importance of this indicator and how this daily information can be useful to a country that had high level of inflation. Despite the fact that this measure is a fair antecedent variable for inflation, due to some peculiarities concerning the collection period, the initial daily rating may not anticipate some effects, such as seasonal factors and the increase in prices controlled by the Brazilian Government. Hence, by taking into account the Monitor´s daily time series, this paper intends to forecast the IPCA for the first six days of data collection. The results showed up that the proposal technic improved the IPCA forecast in the beginning of data collection.engTexto de discussão;78Daily inflationIPCAMonitorTime seriesSARIMAEconomiaInflação - BrasilApplying the daily inflation to forecast the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA)Aplicação da inflação diária para previsão do IPCAinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlereponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)instacron:FGVinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessORIGINALTD 78.pdfTD 78.pdfTEXTO PARA DISCUSSÃOapplication/pdf1130886https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/4d45ad33-65b1-4465-89bd-8d8b6632bdad/download1efad9a4ec236461f26ab9e546cc4f3eMD51LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-84707https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/4be0739c-9b67-4942-b4dc-faa8801c4bd9/downloaddfb340242cced38a6cca06c627998fa1MD52TEXTTD 78.pdf.txtTD 78.pdf.txtExtracted 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dc.title.eng.fl_str_mv |
Applying the daily inflation to forecast the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) |
dc.title.alternative.por.fl_str_mv |
Aplicação da inflação diária para previsão do IPCA |
title |
Applying the daily inflation to forecast the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) |
spellingShingle |
Applying the daily inflation to forecast the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti Daily inflation IPCA Monitor Time series SARIMA Economia Inflação - Brasil |
title_short |
Applying the daily inflation to forecast the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) |
title_full |
Applying the daily inflation to forecast the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) |
title_fullStr |
Applying the daily inflation to forecast the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) |
title_full_unstemmed |
Applying the daily inflation to forecast the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) |
title_sort |
Applying the daily inflation to forecast the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) |
author |
Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti |
author_facet |
Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti Carneiro, Juliana Braz, André |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Carneiro, Juliana Braz, André |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.unidadefgv.por.fl_str_mv |
Institutos::IBRE |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti Carneiro, Juliana Braz, André |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Daily inflation IPCA |
topic |
Daily inflation IPCA Monitor Time series SARIMA Economia Inflação - Brasil |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Monitor Time series SARIMA |
dc.subject.area.por.fl_str_mv |
Economia |
dc.subject.bibliodata.por.fl_str_mv |
Inflação - Brasil |
description |
Since 2006, the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) calculates a daily version of the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA), the official inflation index, calculated under the responsibility of the IBGE, the federal statistics agency in Brazil. Ardeo et. al. (2013) showed the importance of this indicator and how this daily information can be useful to a country that had high level of inflation. Despite the fact that this measure is a fair antecedent variable for inflation, due to some peculiarities concerning the collection period, the initial daily rating may not anticipate some effects, such as seasonal factors and the increase in prices controlled by the Brazilian Government. Hence, by taking into account the Monitor´s daily time series, this paper intends to forecast the IPCA for the first six days of data collection. The results showed up that the proposal technic improved the IPCA forecast in the beginning of data collection. |
publishDate |
2015 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2015-07-30T17:32:04Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2015-07-30T17:32:04Z |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2015-06-01 |
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eng |
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eng |
dc.relation.ispartofseries.por.fl_str_mv |
Texto de discussão;78 |
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openAccess |
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