Desafios na avaliação de incorporadoras imobiliárias brasileiras de capital aberto

• Autor(a) principal: Berger, Marcelo Romano
• Data de Publicação: 2015
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
• Texto Completo: https://hdl.handle.net/10438/15049
• topic: Valuation; Stocks; Real estate development; Real estate; Avaliação de empresas; Incorporação imobiliária; Ações; Economia; Empresas - Avaliação; Bens imóveis; Incorporação imobiliária; Ações (Finanças)

This work starts by discussing the Brazilian real estate development industry and by reasoning why traditional valuation models are not appropriate to evaluate Brazilian homebuilders.The sector accounting rules, the business model of real estate development in Brazil, the cyclical nature of the industry, the mismatch between cash flows and revenue recognition, and the type of information disclosed by the listed players are among the main points discussed. Next, the study suggests an adequate model, building on the concept of Sum of the Parts valuation, where the value of net assets, land bank and future projects are separately estimated. Some investment bank analysts have recently adopted similar methods, but a more academic discussion was still missing. The study further argues that the proposed model looks robust since it does not only produces results compatible with economic intuition, but also allows for sensitivity and scenario analysis in simple and direct ways. Finally, the performance of the listed Brazilian homebuilders in the period ranging from 2008 to 2014 and the current value perception of the market are discussed.