ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIOS FOR MANDATORY BIO-FUEL BLENDING TARGETS: AN APPLICATION OF INTUITIVE LOGICS
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2010 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng por |
Título da fonte: | Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies |
Texto Completo: | https://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/23 |
Resumo: | Scenarios depicting targets concerning mandatory bio-fuel blending are critical to the strategic planning of food and bio-energy production chains and their design is the purpose of this paper. Each scenario tells a story about how various elements might interact under given conditions. The method herein utilized is primarily based on Schoemaker´s (1995) and Schwartz´s (1991) earlier proposals. A six step framework is followed: i) identify the focal issue; ii) summarize current mandatory blending targets; iii) identify the driving forces as of a macro-environmental analysis; iv) validate driving forces with specialists; v) rank such key forces by importance before uncertainties, building a correlation matrix; vi) design the scenarios. Finally, three alternative scenarios, relative to the adoption on behalf of countries, by the year 2020, of mandatory bio-fuel blending targets, are proposed which might guide these countries’ decision makers when planning production systems. |
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ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIOS FOR MANDATORY BIO-FUEL BLENDING TARGETS: AN APPLICATION OF INTUITIVE LOGICSENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIOS FOR MANDATORY BIO-FUEL BLENDING TARGETS: AN APPLICATION OF INTUITIVE LOGICS DOI:10.7444/fsrj.v2i1.23Scenarios depicting targets concerning mandatory bio-fuel blending are critical to the strategic planning of food and bio-energy production chains and their design is the purpose of this paper. Each scenario tells a story about how various elements might interact under given conditions. The method herein utilized is primarily based on Schoemaker´s (1995) and Schwartz´s (1991) earlier proposals. A six step framework is followed: i) identify the focal issue; ii) summarize current mandatory blending targets; iii) identify the driving forces as of a macro-environmental analysis; iv) validate driving forces with specialists; v) rank such key forces by importance before uncertainties, building a correlation matrix; vi) design the scenarios. Finally, three alternative scenarios, relative to the adoption on behalf of countries, by the year 2020, of mandatory bio-fuel blending targets, are proposed which might guide these countries’ decision makers when planning production systems.Os cenários para as metas de adição obrigatória de biocombustíveis são uma parte importante do planejamento estratégico das cadeias produtivas de alimentos e bioenergia, sendo o seu desenho o objetivo desse artigo. Cada cenário conta uma história de como os vários elementos poderiam interagir sob certas condições. O método usado aqui tem como base as contribuições anteriores de Schoemaker (1995) e Schwartz (1991). Uma seqüência de seis passos é seguida: i) identificar o foco de análise; ii) revisar as metas atuais de adição obrigatória; iii) identificar os direcionadores com base em uma analise macro-ambiental; iv) validar os direcionadores com especialistas; v) priorizar tais forças motrizes em termos de importância perante incertezas, construindo-se uma matriz de correlação; vi) desenhar os cenários. Ao final, são propostos três cenários alternativos relacionados à adoção, por parte de países, até 2020, de metas de adição obrigatória de biocombustíveis, que poderão orientar os tomadores de decisão dos mesmos durante o planejamento de sistemas de produção.Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies2010-06-09info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionPeer-reviewed Articleapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttps://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/2310.24023/FutureJournal/2175-5825/2010.v2i1.23Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies; Vol. 2 No. 1 (2010): Future Studies Research Journal; 99-136Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies [FSRJ]; v. 2 n. 1 (2010): Future Studies Research Journal; 99-1362175-5825reponame:Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategiesinstname:Fundação Instituto de Administração (FIA)instacron:FIAengporhttps://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/23/86https://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/23/79Copyright (c) 2010 Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategiesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessConejero, Marco AntonioNeves, Marcos FavaPinto, Mairun Junqueira Alves2018-07-19T15:46:27Zoai:ojs.future.emnuvens.com.br:article/23Revistahttps://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/oai2175-58252175-5825opendoar:2018-07-19T15:46:27Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies - Fundação Instituto de Administração (FIA)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIOS FOR MANDATORY BIO-FUEL BLENDING TARGETS: AN APPLICATION OF INTUITIVE LOGICS ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIOS FOR MANDATORY BIO-FUEL BLENDING TARGETS: AN APPLICATION OF INTUITIVE LOGICS DOI:10.7444/fsrj.v2i1.23 |
title |
ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIOS FOR MANDATORY BIO-FUEL BLENDING TARGETS: AN APPLICATION OF INTUITIVE LOGICS |
spellingShingle |
ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIOS FOR MANDATORY BIO-FUEL BLENDING TARGETS: AN APPLICATION OF INTUITIVE LOGICS Conejero, Marco Antonio |
title_short |
ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIOS FOR MANDATORY BIO-FUEL BLENDING TARGETS: AN APPLICATION OF INTUITIVE LOGICS |
title_full |
ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIOS FOR MANDATORY BIO-FUEL BLENDING TARGETS: AN APPLICATION OF INTUITIVE LOGICS |
title_fullStr |
ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIOS FOR MANDATORY BIO-FUEL BLENDING TARGETS: AN APPLICATION OF INTUITIVE LOGICS |
title_full_unstemmed |
ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIOS FOR MANDATORY BIO-FUEL BLENDING TARGETS: AN APPLICATION OF INTUITIVE LOGICS |
title_sort |
ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIOS FOR MANDATORY BIO-FUEL BLENDING TARGETS: AN APPLICATION OF INTUITIVE LOGICS |
author |
Conejero, Marco Antonio |
author_facet |
Conejero, Marco Antonio Neves, Marcos Fava Pinto, Mairun Junqueira Alves |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Neves, Marcos Fava Pinto, Mairun Junqueira Alves |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Conejero, Marco Antonio Neves, Marcos Fava Pinto, Mairun Junqueira Alves |
description |
Scenarios depicting targets concerning mandatory bio-fuel blending are critical to the strategic planning of food and bio-energy production chains and their design is the purpose of this paper. Each scenario tells a story about how various elements might interact under given conditions. The method herein utilized is primarily based on Schoemaker´s (1995) and Schwartz´s (1991) earlier proposals. A six step framework is followed: i) identify the focal issue; ii) summarize current mandatory blending targets; iii) identify the driving forces as of a macro-environmental analysis; iv) validate driving forces with specialists; v) rank such key forces by importance before uncertainties, building a correlation matrix; vi) design the scenarios. Finally, three alternative scenarios, relative to the adoption on behalf of countries, by the year 2020, of mandatory bio-fuel blending targets, are proposed which might guide these countries’ decision makers when planning production systems. |
publishDate |
2010 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2010-06-09 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Peer-reviewed Article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/23 10.24023/FutureJournal/2175-5825/2010.v2i1.23 |
url |
https://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/23 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.24023/FutureJournal/2175-5825/2010.v2i1.23 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng por |
language |
eng por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/23/86 https://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/23/79 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2010 Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2010 Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies; Vol. 2 No. 1 (2010): Future Studies Research Journal; 99-136 Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies [FSRJ]; v. 2 n. 1 (2010): Future Studies Research Journal; 99-136 2175-5825 reponame:Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies instname:Fundação Instituto de Administração (FIA) instacron:FIA |
instname_str |
Fundação Instituto de Administração (FIA) |
instacron_str |
FIA |
institution |
FIA |
reponame_str |
Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies |
collection |
Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies - Fundação Instituto de Administração (FIA) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
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1808843615752945664 |