Forecasting the rate of cumulative cases of COVID-19 infection in Northeast Brazil: a Boltzmann function-based modeling study
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2020 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Cadernos de Saúde Pública |
Texto Completo: | http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-311X2020000604002 |
Resumo: | Abstract: The COVID-19 death rate in Northeast Brazil is much higher when compared to the national average, demanding a study into the prognosis of the region for planning control measures and preventing the collapse of the health care system. We estimated the potential total cumulative cases of COVID-19 in the region for the next three months. Our study included all confirmed cases, from March 8 until April 28, 2020, collected from the official website that reports the situation of COVID-19 infections in Brazil. The Boltzmann function was applied to a data simulation for each set of data regarding different states. The model data were well fitted, with R2 values close to 0.999. Up to April 28, 20,665 cases were confirmed in the region. The state of Ceará has the highest rate of accumulated cases per 100,000 inhabitants (75.75), followed by Pernambuco. We estimated that the states of Ceará, Sergipe and Paraíba will experience a dramatic increase in the rate of cumulative cases until July 31. Maranhão, Pernambuco, Rio Grande do Norte and Piauí showed a more discreet increase in the model. For Bahia and Alagoas, a 4.7 and 6.6-fold increase in the rate was estimated, respectively. We estimate a substantial increase in the rate of cumulative cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the region within three months, especially for Ceará, Sergipe and Paraíba. The Boltzmann function proved to be a simple tool for epidemiological forecasting that can help planning the measures to contain COVID-19. |
id |
FIOCRUZ-5_19d0f6590eaa46e258bb3291c3dc5d62 |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:scielo:S0102-311X2020000604002 |
network_acronym_str |
FIOCRUZ-5 |
network_name_str |
Cadernos de Saúde Pública |
repository_id_str |
|
spelling |
Forecasting the rate of cumulative cases of COVID-19 infection in Northeast Brazil: a Boltzmann function-based modeling studyCOVID-19EpidemiologyMathematical ModelsPandemicAbstract: The COVID-19 death rate in Northeast Brazil is much higher when compared to the national average, demanding a study into the prognosis of the region for planning control measures and preventing the collapse of the health care system. We estimated the potential total cumulative cases of COVID-19 in the region for the next three months. Our study included all confirmed cases, from March 8 until April 28, 2020, collected from the official website that reports the situation of COVID-19 infections in Brazil. The Boltzmann function was applied to a data simulation for each set of data regarding different states. The model data were well fitted, with R2 values close to 0.999. Up to April 28, 20,665 cases were confirmed in the region. The state of Ceará has the highest rate of accumulated cases per 100,000 inhabitants (75.75), followed by Pernambuco. We estimated that the states of Ceará, Sergipe and Paraíba will experience a dramatic increase in the rate of cumulative cases until July 31. Maranhão, Pernambuco, Rio Grande do Norte and Piauí showed a more discreet increase in the model. For Bahia and Alagoas, a 4.7 and 6.6-fold increase in the rate was estimated, respectively. We estimate a substantial increase in the rate of cumulative cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the region within three months, especially for Ceará, Sergipe and Paraíba. The Boltzmann function proved to be a simple tool for epidemiological forecasting that can help planning the measures to contain COVID-19.Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sergio Arouca, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz2020-01-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-311X2020000604002Cadernos de Saúde Pública v.36 n.6 2020reponame:Cadernos de Saúde Públicainstname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)instacron:FIOCRUZ10.1590/0102-311x00105720info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessMelo,Géssyca Cavalcante deAraújo Neto,Renato Américo deAraújo,Karina Conceição Gomes Machado deeng2020-07-20T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S0102-311X2020000604002Revistahttp://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/csp/https://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.phpcadernos@ensp.fiocruz.br||cadernos@ensp.fiocruz.br1678-44640102-311Xopendoar:2020-07-20T00:00Cadernos de Saúde Pública - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Forecasting the rate of cumulative cases of COVID-19 infection in Northeast Brazil: a Boltzmann function-based modeling study |
title |
Forecasting the rate of cumulative cases of COVID-19 infection in Northeast Brazil: a Boltzmann function-based modeling study |
spellingShingle |
Forecasting the rate of cumulative cases of COVID-19 infection in Northeast Brazil: a Boltzmann function-based modeling study Melo,Géssyca Cavalcante de COVID-19 Epidemiology Mathematical Models Pandemic |
title_short |
Forecasting the rate of cumulative cases of COVID-19 infection in Northeast Brazil: a Boltzmann function-based modeling study |
title_full |
Forecasting the rate of cumulative cases of COVID-19 infection in Northeast Brazil: a Boltzmann function-based modeling study |
title_fullStr |
Forecasting the rate of cumulative cases of COVID-19 infection in Northeast Brazil: a Boltzmann function-based modeling study |
title_full_unstemmed |
Forecasting the rate of cumulative cases of COVID-19 infection in Northeast Brazil: a Boltzmann function-based modeling study |
title_sort |
Forecasting the rate of cumulative cases of COVID-19 infection in Northeast Brazil: a Boltzmann function-based modeling study |
author |
Melo,Géssyca Cavalcante de |
author_facet |
Melo,Géssyca Cavalcante de Araújo Neto,Renato Américo de Araújo,Karina Conceição Gomes Machado de |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Araújo Neto,Renato Américo de Araújo,Karina Conceição Gomes Machado de |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Melo,Géssyca Cavalcante de Araújo Neto,Renato Américo de Araújo,Karina Conceição Gomes Machado de |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
COVID-19 Epidemiology Mathematical Models Pandemic |
topic |
COVID-19 Epidemiology Mathematical Models Pandemic |
description |
Abstract: The COVID-19 death rate in Northeast Brazil is much higher when compared to the national average, demanding a study into the prognosis of the region for planning control measures and preventing the collapse of the health care system. We estimated the potential total cumulative cases of COVID-19 in the region for the next three months. Our study included all confirmed cases, from March 8 until April 28, 2020, collected from the official website that reports the situation of COVID-19 infections in Brazil. The Boltzmann function was applied to a data simulation for each set of data regarding different states. The model data were well fitted, with R2 values close to 0.999. Up to April 28, 20,665 cases were confirmed in the region. The state of Ceará has the highest rate of accumulated cases per 100,000 inhabitants (75.75), followed by Pernambuco. We estimated that the states of Ceará, Sergipe and Paraíba will experience a dramatic increase in the rate of cumulative cases until July 31. Maranhão, Pernambuco, Rio Grande do Norte and Piauí showed a more discreet increase in the model. For Bahia and Alagoas, a 4.7 and 6.6-fold increase in the rate was estimated, respectively. We estimate a substantial increase in the rate of cumulative cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the region within three months, especially for Ceará, Sergipe and Paraíba. The Boltzmann function proved to be a simple tool for epidemiological forecasting that can help planning the measures to contain COVID-19. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-01-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-311X2020000604002 |
url |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-311X2020000604002 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
10.1590/0102-311x00105720 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
text/html |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sergio Arouca, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sergio Arouca, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Cadernos de Saúde Pública v.36 n.6 2020 reponame:Cadernos de Saúde Pública instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ) instacron:FIOCRUZ |
instname_str |
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ) |
instacron_str |
FIOCRUZ |
institution |
FIOCRUZ |
reponame_str |
Cadernos de Saúde Pública |
collection |
Cadernos de Saúde Pública |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Cadernos de Saúde Pública - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
cadernos@ensp.fiocruz.br||cadernos@ensp.fiocruz.br |
_version_ |
1754115740887154688 |