TEMPORAL TRAJECTORIES OF CONCEPTIONS IN THE TIME OF ZIKA VIRUS AND COVID-19 IN THE NORTHEAST REGION OF BRAZIL

• Autor(a) principal: de Mello Moreira, Morvan
• Data de Publicação: 2023
• Outros Autores: Fusco, Wilson
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Cadernos de Estudos Sociais (Online)
• Texto Completo: https://periodicos.fundaj.gov.br/CAD/article/view/2120

The objective of this study is to analyze the transformations in the temporal trajectories of conceptions in the Brazilian Northeast, building the general rates of conceptions to infer about the intensity of changes in reproductive behavior due to the outbreak of the Zika virus epidemic and the covid-19 pandemic. The data used were those from the Information System on Live Births in the Northeast, from 2014 to early 2022 and the 2018 population projections from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Monthly live birth records were converted to monthly conception records. The female populations aged 15-49 years projected annually by the IBGE were transformed into monthly information dated according to the dates of conceptions. Then, the general rates of monthly conceptions and their temporal trajectories were generated. The analytical basis of this study is based on the identification of the temporal trajectory of conceptions covering the period before the Zika virus, including that of covid-19 until the most recent data available, its seasonal variations and its monthly movements. The results showed the continued fall in the reproduction levels of the Northeastern population, within a monthly seasonality that was little modified, other than at the time of Zika, when the changes were significant. The fear of the consequences of sexual transmission of the Zika with the possibility of births marked by microcephaly, congenital Zika virus syndrome and Guillain-Barré syndrome imposes a profound and marked reduction in the levels of reproduction, not necessarily only in the reduction of conceptions, but also by an increase in pregnancy interruptions. On the other hand, differently, even with the restrictions imposed by the covid-19 control measures that led to the lockdown, unemployment, inflation, impoverishment, such adverse conditions do not appear to significantly affect Northeastern reproduction. KEYWORDS: Conceptions. Zika virus. covid-19. Brazilian Northeast.