TEMPORAL TRAJECTORIES OF CONCEPTIONS IN THE TIME OF ZIKA VIRUS AND COVID-19 IN THE NORTHEAST REGION OF BRAZIL
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2023 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Cadernos de Estudos Sociais (Online) |
Texto Completo: | https://periodicos.fundaj.gov.br/CAD/article/view/2120 |
Resumo: | The objective of this study is to analyze the transformations in the temporal trajectories of conceptions in the Brazilian Northeast, building the general rates of conceptions to infer about the intensity of changes in reproductive behavior due to the outbreak of the Zika virus epidemic and the covid-19 pandemic. The data used were those from the Information System on Live Births in the Northeast, from 2014 to early 2022 and the 2018 population projections from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Monthly live birth records were converted to monthly conception records. The female populations aged 15-49 years projected annually by the IBGE were transformed into monthly information dated according to the dates of conceptions. Then, the general rates of monthly conceptions and their temporal trajectories were generated. The analytical basis of this study is based on the identification of the temporal trajectory of conceptions covering the period before the Zika virus, including that of covid-19 until the most recent data available, its seasonal variations and its monthly movements. The results showed the continued fall in the reproduction levels of the Northeastern population, within a monthly seasonality that was little modified, other than at the time of Zika, when the changes were significant. The fear of the consequences of sexual transmission of the Zika with the possibility of births marked by microcephaly, congenital Zika virus syndrome and Guillain-Barré syndrome imposes a profound and marked reduction in the levels of reproduction, not necessarily only in the reduction of conceptions, but also by an increase in pregnancy interruptions. On the other hand, differently, even with the restrictions imposed by the covid-19 control measures that led to the lockdown, unemployment, inflation, impoverishment, such adverse conditions do not appear to significantly affect Northeastern reproduction. KEYWORDS: Conceptions. Zika virus. covid-19. Brazilian Northeast. |
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TEMPORAL TRAJECTORIES OF CONCEPTIONS IN THE TIME OF ZIKA VIRUS AND COVID-19 IN THE NORTHEAST REGION OF BRAZILTRAYECTORIAS TEMPORALES DE CONCEPCIONES EN TIEMPOS DE VIRUS ZIKA Y COVID-19 EN LA REGIÓN NORDESTE DE BRASILTRAJETÓRIAS TEMPORAIS DAS CONCEPÇÕES NOS TEMPOS DE ZIKA E COVID-19 NA REGIÃO NORDESTE DO BRASILThe objective of this study is to analyze the transformations in the temporal trajectories of conceptions in the Brazilian Northeast, building the general rates of conceptions to infer about the intensity of changes in reproductive behavior due to the outbreak of the Zika virus epidemic and the covid-19 pandemic. The data used were those from the Information System on Live Births in the Northeast, from 2014 to early 2022 and the 2018 population projections from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Monthly live birth records were converted to monthly conception records. The female populations aged 15-49 years projected annually by the IBGE were transformed into monthly information dated according to the dates of conceptions. Then, the general rates of monthly conceptions and their temporal trajectories were generated. The analytical basis of this study is based on the identification of the temporal trajectory of conceptions covering the period before the Zika virus, including that of covid-19 until the most recent data available, its seasonal variations and its monthly movements. The results showed the continued fall in the reproduction levels of the Northeastern population, within a monthly seasonality that was little modified, other than at the time of Zika, when the changes were significant. The fear of the consequences of sexual transmission of the Zika with the possibility of births marked by microcephaly, congenital Zika virus syndrome and Guillain-Barré syndrome imposes a profound and marked reduction in the levels of reproduction, not necessarily only in the reduction of conceptions, but also by an increase in pregnancy interruptions. On the other hand, differently, even with the restrictions imposed by the covid-19 control measures that led to the lockdown, unemployment, inflation, impoverishment, such adverse conditions do not appear to significantly affect Northeastern reproduction. KEYWORDS: Conceptions. Zika virus. covid-19. Brazilian Northeast.El objetivo de este estudio es analizar las transformaciones en las trayectorias temporales de las concepciones que resultaron en nacidos vivos, en el Nordeste brasileño, construyendo tasas generales de concepción para inferir la intensidad de los cambios en el comportamiento reproductivo debido al brote de la epidemia de Zika y la pandemia de covid-19. Las bases de datos utilizadas fueron las del Sistema de Información sobre Nacidos Vivos en el Nordeste, de 2014 a principios de 2022, y las proyecciones de población de 2018 del Instituto Brasileño de Geografía y Estadística (IBGE). Los registros mensuales de nacidos vivos se convierten en registros mensuales de concepción. Las poblaciones femeninas de 15 a 49 años proyectadas anualmente por el IBGE son transformadas en informaciones mensuales datadas según las fechas de las concepciones. A partir de ellas se generan las tasas generales de concepción mensuales y sus trayectorias temporales. La base analítica de este estudio se basa en identificar la trayectoria temporal de las concepciones que abarcan el período previo al virus Zika, pasando por el covid-19 hasta los datos más recientes disponibles, sus variaciones estacionales y sus movimientos mensuales. Los resultados mostraron la continua caída en los niveles reproductivos de la población nororiental, dentro de una estacionalidad mensual poco alterada, salvo por la aparición del virus Zika, cuando las repercusiones fueron significativas. El temor a las consecuencias de la transmisión del virus Zika por vía sexual, con la posibilidad de nacimientos marcados por microcefalia, síndrome congénito del virus Zika y síndrome de Guillain-Barré, impone una profunda y marcada reducción en los niveles de reproducción, no necesariamente solo en la reducción de las concepciones, sino también por un aumento de las interrupciones del embarazo. Por otro lado, en cambio, aún con las restricciones impuestas por las medidas de control de covid-19 que llevaron al confinamiento, desempleo, inflación y empobrecimiento, tales condiciones adversas no parecen afectar significativamente la reproducción durante la epidemia de covid-19. PALABRAS CLAVE: Concepciones. Virus Zika. COVID-19. Nordeste brasileño.O objetivo deste estudo é analisar as transformações nas trajetórias temporais das concepções que resultaram em nascidos vivos, no Nordeste brasileiro, construindo as taxas gerais de concepções para inferir sobre a intensidade das mudanças do comportamento reprodutivo em razão da eclosão da epidemia da Zika e da pandemia da covid-19. As bases de dados utilizadas foram as do Sistema de Informações sobre Nascidos Vivos no Nordeste, no período de 2014 a inícios de 2022 e as projeções populacionais de 2018 do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE). Os registros mensais de nascidos vivos são convertidos em registros mensais de concepção. As populações femininas de 15-49 anos projetadas anualmente pelo IBGE são transformadas em informações mensais datadas de acordo com as datas das concepções. Destas são geradas as taxas gerais de concepções mensais e suas trajetórias temporais. A base analítica deste estudo assenta-se na identificação da trajetória temporal das concepções abarcando período anterior à Zika vírus, passando pela covid-19 até os dados mais recentes disponíveis, suas variações sazonais e seus movimentos mensais. Os resultados mostraram a continuada queda dos níveis de reprodução da população nordestina, dentro de uma sazonalidade mensal pouco modificada, exceto pela ocorrência da Zika vírus, momento em que as repercussões se mostram significativas. O temor das consequências da transmissão do vírus da zika por meio sexual com a eventualidade de nascimentos marcados pela microcefalia, síndrome congênita do Zika vírus e síndrome de Guillain-Barré impõe uma profunda e marcante redução nos níveis de reprodução, não necessariamente apenas na diminuição das concepções, mas também por um aumento nas interrupções da gravidez. Por outro lado, diferentemente, mesmo com as restrições impostas pelas medidas de controle da covid-19 que levaram ao lockdown, desemprego, inflação, e empobrecimento, tais condições adversas afiguram não afetar de forma significativa a reprodução quando da epidemia da covid-19. PALABRAS-CHAVE: Concepções. Zika vírus. Covid-19. Nordeste Fundação Joaquim Nabuco | Diretoria de Pesquisas Sociais2023-04-11info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://periodicos.fundaj.gov.br/CAD/article/view/212010.33148/CESv37n1(2022)2120Cadernos de Estudos Sociais; v. 37 n. 1 (2022): A mortalidade materna, fetal e infantil e atuação da vigilância do óbito no contexto da pandemia de COVID-192595-40910102-424810.33148/CESv37n1(2022)fullreponame:Cadernos de Estudos Sociais (Online)instname:Fundação Joaquim Nabuco (FUNDAJ)instacron:FUNDAJporhttps://periodicos.fundaj.gov.br/CAD/article/view/2120/1689Copyright (c) 2023 Autor, concedendo à revista o direito de primeira publicaçãohttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessde Mello Moreira, MorvanFusco, Wilson2023-04-12T14:21:14Zoai:ojs.emnuvens.com.br:article/2120Revistahttps://periodicos.fundaj.gov.br/CADPUBhttps://periodicos.fundaj.gov.br/CAD/oaibeatriz.mesquita@fundaj.gov.br||beatriz.mesquita@fundaj.gov.br2595-40910102-4248opendoar:2023-04-12T14:21:14Cadernos de Estudos Sociais (Online) - Fundação Joaquim Nabuco (FUNDAJ)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
TEMPORAL TRAJECTORIES OF CONCEPTIONS IN THE TIME OF ZIKA VIRUS AND COVID-19 IN THE NORTHEAST REGION OF BRAZIL TRAYECTORIAS TEMPORALES DE CONCEPCIONES EN TIEMPOS DE VIRUS ZIKA Y COVID-19 EN LA REGIÓN NORDESTE DE BRASIL TRAJETÓRIAS TEMPORAIS DAS CONCEPÇÕES NOS TEMPOS DE ZIKA E COVID-19 NA REGIÃO NORDESTE DO BRASIL |
title |
TEMPORAL TRAJECTORIES OF CONCEPTIONS IN THE TIME OF ZIKA VIRUS AND COVID-19 IN THE NORTHEAST REGION OF BRAZIL |
spellingShingle |
TEMPORAL TRAJECTORIES OF CONCEPTIONS IN THE TIME OF ZIKA VIRUS AND COVID-19 IN THE NORTHEAST REGION OF BRAZIL de Mello Moreira, Morvan |
title_short |
TEMPORAL TRAJECTORIES OF CONCEPTIONS IN THE TIME OF ZIKA VIRUS AND COVID-19 IN THE NORTHEAST REGION OF BRAZIL |
title_full |
TEMPORAL TRAJECTORIES OF CONCEPTIONS IN THE TIME OF ZIKA VIRUS AND COVID-19 IN THE NORTHEAST REGION OF BRAZIL |
title_fullStr |
TEMPORAL TRAJECTORIES OF CONCEPTIONS IN THE TIME OF ZIKA VIRUS AND COVID-19 IN THE NORTHEAST REGION OF BRAZIL |
title_full_unstemmed |
TEMPORAL TRAJECTORIES OF CONCEPTIONS IN THE TIME OF ZIKA VIRUS AND COVID-19 IN THE NORTHEAST REGION OF BRAZIL |
title_sort |
TEMPORAL TRAJECTORIES OF CONCEPTIONS IN THE TIME OF ZIKA VIRUS AND COVID-19 IN THE NORTHEAST REGION OF BRAZIL |
author |
de Mello Moreira, Morvan |
author_facet |
de Mello Moreira, Morvan Fusco, Wilson |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Fusco, Wilson |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
de Mello Moreira, Morvan Fusco, Wilson |
description |
The objective of this study is to analyze the transformations in the temporal trajectories of conceptions in the Brazilian Northeast, building the general rates of conceptions to infer about the intensity of changes in reproductive behavior due to the outbreak of the Zika virus epidemic and the covid-19 pandemic. The data used were those from the Information System on Live Births in the Northeast, from 2014 to early 2022 and the 2018 population projections from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Monthly live birth records were converted to monthly conception records. The female populations aged 15-49 years projected annually by the IBGE were transformed into monthly information dated according to the dates of conceptions. Then, the general rates of monthly conceptions and their temporal trajectories were generated. The analytical basis of this study is based on the identification of the temporal trajectory of conceptions covering the period before the Zika virus, including that of covid-19 until the most recent data available, its seasonal variations and its monthly movements. The results showed the continued fall in the reproduction levels of the Northeastern population, within a monthly seasonality that was little modified, other than at the time of Zika, when the changes were significant. The fear of the consequences of sexual transmission of the Zika with the possibility of births marked by microcephaly, congenital Zika virus syndrome and Guillain-Barré syndrome imposes a profound and marked reduction in the levels of reproduction, not necessarily only in the reduction of conceptions, but also by an increase in pregnancy interruptions. On the other hand, differently, even with the restrictions imposed by the covid-19 control measures that led to the lockdown, unemployment, inflation, impoverishment, such adverse conditions do not appear to significantly affect Northeastern reproduction. KEYWORDS: Conceptions. Zika virus. covid-19. Brazilian Northeast. |
publishDate |
2023 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2023-04-11 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://periodicos.fundaj.gov.br/CAD/article/view/2120 10.33148/CESv37n1(2022)2120 |
url |
https://periodicos.fundaj.gov.br/CAD/article/view/2120 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.33148/CESv37n1(2022)2120 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://periodicos.fundaj.gov.br/CAD/article/view/2120/1689 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2023 Autor, concedendo à revista o direito de primeira publicação https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2023 Autor, concedendo à revista o direito de primeira publicação https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Fundação Joaquim Nabuco | Diretoria de Pesquisas Sociais |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Fundação Joaquim Nabuco | Diretoria de Pesquisas Sociais |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Cadernos de Estudos Sociais; v. 37 n. 1 (2022): A mortalidade materna, fetal e infantil e atuação da vigilância do óbito no contexto da pandemia de COVID-19 2595-4091 0102-4248 10.33148/CESv37n1(2022)full reponame:Cadernos de Estudos Sociais (Online) instname:Fundação Joaquim Nabuco (FUNDAJ) instacron:FUNDAJ |
instname_str |
Fundação Joaquim Nabuco (FUNDAJ) |
instacron_str |
FUNDAJ |
institution |
FUNDAJ |
reponame_str |
Cadernos de Estudos Sociais (Online) |
collection |
Cadernos de Estudos Sociais (Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Cadernos de Estudos Sociais (Online) - Fundação Joaquim Nabuco (FUNDAJ) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
beatriz.mesquita@fundaj.gov.br||beatriz.mesquita@fundaj.gov.br |
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1798042197077000192 |