Modeling Dengue Vector Dynamics under Imperfect Detection: Three Years of Site-Occupancy by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in Urban Amazonia
Main Author: | |
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Publication Date: | 2013 |
Other Authors: | , , , |
Format: | Article |
Language: | eng |
Source: | Repositório Institucional do INPA |
Download full: | https://repositorio.inpa.gov.br/handle/1/14719 |
Summary: | Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are the vectors of dengue, the most important arboviral disease of humans. To date, Aedes ecology studies have assumed that the vectors are truly absent from sites where they are not detected; since no perfect detection method exists, this assumption is questionable. Imperfect detection may bias estimates of key vector surveillance/control parameters, including site-occupancy (infestation) rates and control intervention effects. We used a modeling approach that explicitly accounts for imperfect detection and a 38-month, 55-site detection/non-detection dataset to quantify the effects of municipality/state control interventions on Aedes site-occupancy dynamics, considering meteorological and dwelling-level covariates. Ae. aegypti site-occupancy estimates (mean 0.91; range 0.79-0.97) were much higher than reported by routine surveillance based on 'rapid larval surveys' (0.03; 0.02-0.11) and moderately higher than directly ascertained with oviposition traps (0.68; 0.50-0.91). Regular control campaigns based on breeding-site elimination had no measurable effects on the probabilities of dwelling infestation by dengue vectors. Site-occupancy fluctuated seasonally, mainly due to the negative effects of high maximum (Ae. aegypti) and minimum (Ae. albopictus) summer temperatures (June-September). Rainfall and dwelling-level covariates were poor predictors of occupancy. The marked contrast between our estimates of adult vector presence and the results from 'rapid larval surveys' suggests, together with the lack of effect of local control campaigns on infestation, that many Aedes breeding sites were overlooked by vector control agents in our study setting. Better sampling strategies are urgently needed, particularly for the reliable assessment of infestation rates in the context of control program management. The approach we present here, combining oviposition traps and site-occupancy models, could greatly contribute to that crucial aim. © 2013 Padilla-Torres et al. |
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Padilla-Torres, Samael D.Ferraz, GonçaloLuz, Sérgio Luíz BessaZamora-Perea, ElviraAbad-Franch, Fernando2020-04-24T17:00:50Z2020-04-24T17:00:50Z2013https://repositorio.inpa.gov.br/handle/1/1471910.1371/journal.pone.0058420Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are the vectors of dengue, the most important arboviral disease of humans. To date, Aedes ecology studies have assumed that the vectors are truly absent from sites where they are not detected; since no perfect detection method exists, this assumption is questionable. Imperfect detection may bias estimates of key vector surveillance/control parameters, including site-occupancy (infestation) rates and control intervention effects. We used a modeling approach that explicitly accounts for imperfect detection and a 38-month, 55-site detection/non-detection dataset to quantify the effects of municipality/state control interventions on Aedes site-occupancy dynamics, considering meteorological and dwelling-level covariates. Ae. aegypti site-occupancy estimates (mean 0.91; range 0.79-0.97) were much higher than reported by routine surveillance based on 'rapid larval surveys' (0.03; 0.02-0.11) and moderately higher than directly ascertained with oviposition traps (0.68; 0.50-0.91). Regular control campaigns based on breeding-site elimination had no measurable effects on the probabilities of dwelling infestation by dengue vectors. Site-occupancy fluctuated seasonally, mainly due to the negative effects of high maximum (Ae. aegypti) and minimum (Ae. albopictus) summer temperatures (June-September). Rainfall and dwelling-level covariates were poor predictors of occupancy. The marked contrast between our estimates of adult vector presence and the results from 'rapid larval surveys' suggests, together with the lack of effect of local control campaigns on infestation, that many Aedes breeding sites were overlooked by vector control agents in our study setting. Better sampling strategies are urgently needed, particularly for the reliable assessment of infestation rates in the context of control program management. The approach we present here, combining oviposition traps and site-occupancy models, could greatly contribute to that crucial aim. © 2013 Padilla-Torres et al.Volume 8, Número 3Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Brazilhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/br/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessVirus RnaAedes AegyptiAedes AlbopictusBrasilBreedingDengueDisease CarrierDisease TransmissionEgg LayingGeographic DistributionHealth SurveyHumanInfestationMolecular DynamicsNonhumanPublic Health ProblemSeasonal VariationUrban AreaVector ControlAedesAnimalsCityDengueDengue VirusEcologyEnvironmentFemaleGeographyInsect ControlMalePopulation DynamicsProceduresReproductionSeasonStatistical ModelTemperatureTransmissionVirologyAedesAnimalssBrasilCitiesDengueDengue VirusEcologyEnvironmentFemaleGeographyInsect ControlInsect VectorsLikelihood FunctionsMalePopulation DynamicsReproductionSeasonsTemperatureModeling Dengue Vector Dynamics under Imperfect Detection: Three Years of Site-Occupancy by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in Urban Amazoniainfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlePLoS ONEengreponame:Repositório Institucional do INPAinstname:Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA)instacron:INPAORIGINALartigo-inpa.pdfapplication/pdf727988https://repositorio.inpa.gov.br/bitstream/1/14719/1/artigo-inpa.pdf61c29e0e184a5e482fb0d5cb1616bdcfMD51CC-LICENSElicense_rdfapplication/octet-stream914https://repositorio.inpa.gov.br/bitstream/1/14719/2/license_rdf4d2950bda3d176f570a9f8b328dfbbefMD521/147192020-07-14 10:16:50.551oai:repositorio:1/14719Repositório de PublicaçõesPUBhttps://repositorio.inpa.gov.br/oai/requestopendoar:2020-07-14T14:16:50Repositório Institucional do INPA - Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA)false |
dc.title.en.fl_str_mv |
Modeling Dengue Vector Dynamics under Imperfect Detection: Three Years of Site-Occupancy by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in Urban Amazonia |
title |
Modeling Dengue Vector Dynamics under Imperfect Detection: Three Years of Site-Occupancy by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in Urban Amazonia |
spellingShingle |
Modeling Dengue Vector Dynamics under Imperfect Detection: Three Years of Site-Occupancy by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in Urban Amazonia Padilla-Torres, Samael D. Virus Rna Aedes Aegypti Aedes Albopictus Brasil Breeding Dengue Disease Carrier Disease Transmission Egg Laying Geographic Distribution Health Survey Human Infestation Molecular Dynamics Nonhuman Public Health Problem Seasonal Variation Urban Area Vector Control Aedes Animals City Dengue Dengue Virus Ecology Environment Female Geography Insect Control Male Population Dynamics Procedures Reproduction Season Statistical Model Temperature Transmission Virology Aedes Animalss Brasil Cities Dengue Dengue Virus Ecology Environment Female Geography Insect Control Insect Vectors Likelihood Functions Male Population Dynamics Reproduction Seasons Temperature |
title_short |
Modeling Dengue Vector Dynamics under Imperfect Detection: Three Years of Site-Occupancy by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in Urban Amazonia |
title_full |
Modeling Dengue Vector Dynamics under Imperfect Detection: Three Years of Site-Occupancy by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in Urban Amazonia |
title_fullStr |
Modeling Dengue Vector Dynamics under Imperfect Detection: Three Years of Site-Occupancy by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in Urban Amazonia |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modeling Dengue Vector Dynamics under Imperfect Detection: Three Years of Site-Occupancy by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in Urban Amazonia |
title_sort |
Modeling Dengue Vector Dynamics under Imperfect Detection: Three Years of Site-Occupancy by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in Urban Amazonia |
author |
Padilla-Torres, Samael D. |
author_facet |
Padilla-Torres, Samael D. Ferraz, Gonçalo Luz, Sérgio Luíz Bessa Zamora-Perea, Elvira Abad-Franch, Fernando |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Ferraz, Gonçalo Luz, Sérgio Luíz Bessa Zamora-Perea, Elvira Abad-Franch, Fernando |
author2_role |
author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Padilla-Torres, Samael D. Ferraz, Gonçalo Luz, Sérgio Luíz Bessa Zamora-Perea, Elvira Abad-Franch, Fernando |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Virus Rna Aedes Aegypti Aedes Albopictus Brasil Breeding Dengue Disease Carrier Disease Transmission Egg Laying Geographic Distribution Health Survey Human Infestation Molecular Dynamics Nonhuman Public Health Problem Seasonal Variation Urban Area Vector Control Aedes Animals City Dengue Dengue Virus Ecology Environment Female Geography Insect Control Male Population Dynamics Procedures Reproduction Season Statistical Model Temperature Transmission Virology Aedes Animalss Brasil Cities Dengue Dengue Virus Ecology Environment Female Geography Insect Control Insect Vectors Likelihood Functions Male Population Dynamics Reproduction Seasons Temperature |
topic |
Virus Rna Aedes Aegypti Aedes Albopictus Brasil Breeding Dengue Disease Carrier Disease Transmission Egg Laying Geographic Distribution Health Survey Human Infestation Molecular Dynamics Nonhuman Public Health Problem Seasonal Variation Urban Area Vector Control Aedes Animals City Dengue Dengue Virus Ecology Environment Female Geography Insect Control Male Population Dynamics Procedures Reproduction Season Statistical Model Temperature Transmission Virology Aedes Animalss Brasil Cities Dengue Dengue Virus Ecology Environment Female Geography Insect Control Insect Vectors Likelihood Functions Male Population Dynamics Reproduction Seasons Temperature |
description |
Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are the vectors of dengue, the most important arboviral disease of humans. To date, Aedes ecology studies have assumed that the vectors are truly absent from sites where they are not detected; since no perfect detection method exists, this assumption is questionable. Imperfect detection may bias estimates of key vector surveillance/control parameters, including site-occupancy (infestation) rates and control intervention effects. We used a modeling approach that explicitly accounts for imperfect detection and a 38-month, 55-site detection/non-detection dataset to quantify the effects of municipality/state control interventions on Aedes site-occupancy dynamics, considering meteorological and dwelling-level covariates. Ae. aegypti site-occupancy estimates (mean 0.91; range 0.79-0.97) were much higher than reported by routine surveillance based on 'rapid larval surveys' (0.03; 0.02-0.11) and moderately higher than directly ascertained with oviposition traps (0.68; 0.50-0.91). Regular control campaigns based on breeding-site elimination had no measurable effects on the probabilities of dwelling infestation by dengue vectors. Site-occupancy fluctuated seasonally, mainly due to the negative effects of high maximum (Ae. aegypti) and minimum (Ae. albopictus) summer temperatures (June-September). Rainfall and dwelling-level covariates were poor predictors of occupancy. The marked contrast between our estimates of adult vector presence and the results from 'rapid larval surveys' suggests, together with the lack of effect of local control campaigns on infestation, that many Aedes breeding sites were overlooked by vector control agents in our study setting. Better sampling strategies are urgently needed, particularly for the reliable assessment of infestation rates in the context of control program management. The approach we present here, combining oviposition traps and site-occupancy models, could greatly contribute to that crucial aim. © 2013 Padilla-Torres et al. |
publishDate |
2013 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2013 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2020-04-24T17:00:50Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2020-04-24T17:00:50Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://repositorio.inpa.gov.br/handle/1/14719 |
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv |
10.1371/journal.pone.0058420 |
url |
https://repositorio.inpa.gov.br/handle/1/14719 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.1371/journal.pone.0058420 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
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eng |
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Volume 8, Número 3 |
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Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Brazil http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/br/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Brazil http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/br/ |
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openAccess |
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PLoS ONE |
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PLoS ONE |
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