Two centuries of economic growth: international evidence on deepness and steepness

• Autor(a) principal: Fuinhas, José Alberto
• Data de Publicação: 2016
• Outros Autores: Marques, António Cardoso, Almeida, Pedro De, Nogueira, David do Coito, Branco, Tânia
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
• Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.6/6816
• topic: Asymmetry; steepness; Business cycle; Triples Test

This paper focuses on more than two centuries of annual data. It applies the coefficient of skewness and the triples test, in order to detect the presence of deepness and steepness asymmetries in the real GDP per capita of thirty-one countries. By considering a large set of countries over periods starting from 1800, 1820, 1850, 1870, and 1900 and ending in 2010, the robustness of results was addressed. Both tests reveal the scarcity of international evidence of deepness asymmetry, but point to evidence of negative steepness for several countries. In fact, this negative steepness asymmetry supports the view that phases of expansions last longer than the phases of contraction in the business cycle, and this assumption is true for long time spans. Disregarding asymmetric features of economic growth could result in misconstrued economic policies, resulting from crucial failures to predict turning points in the business cycle.