Prediction scenarios of past, present, and future environmental suitability for the Mediterranean species Arbutus unedo L.

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Almeida, Alice Maria
Data de Publicação: 2022
Outros Autores: Martins, Maria João, Campagnolo, Manuel Lameiras, Fernandez, Paulo, Albuquerque, Teresa, Gerassis, Saki, Gonçalves, José Carlos, Ribeiro, Maria Margarida
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/23250
Resumo: Climate change is a challenge for forests in the coming decades, with a major impact on species adaptation and distribution. The Mediterranean Basin is one of the most vulnerable hotspots for biodiversity conservation under climate change in the world. This research aimed at studying a Mediterranean species well adapted to the region: the Arbutus unedo L. (strawberry tree). The MaxEnt, a presence-only species-distribution software, was used to model A. unedo’s environmental suitability. The current species potential distribution was accessed based on actual occurrences and selected environmental variables and subsequently projected for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the Mid-Holocene (MH), and the years 2050 and 2070, considering the two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Results from the LGM projection suggest the presence of refugia in the core of the Mediterranean Basin, in particular the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The projections for the MH indicate increasing climatic suitability for the species and an eastward expansion, relatively to LGM. The predicted future environmental changes will most likely act as a catalyst for suitable habitat loss and a range shift towards the North is likely to occur
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spelling Prediction scenarios of past, present, and future environmental suitability for the Mediterranean species Arbutus unedo L.Arbutus unedoclimate changesadaptationClimate change is a challenge for forests in the coming decades, with a major impact on species adaptation and distribution. The Mediterranean Basin is one of the most vulnerable hotspots for biodiversity conservation under climate change in the world. This research aimed at studying a Mediterranean species well adapted to the region: the Arbutus unedo L. (strawberry tree). The MaxEnt, a presence-only species-distribution software, was used to model A. unedo’s environmental suitability. The current species potential distribution was accessed based on actual occurrences and selected environmental variables and subsequently projected for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the Mid-Holocene (MH), and the years 2050 and 2070, considering the two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Results from the LGM projection suggest the presence of refugia in the core of the Mediterranean Basin, in particular the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The projections for the MH indicate increasing climatic suitability for the species and an eastward expansion, relatively to LGM. The predicted future environmental changes will most likely act as a catalyst for suitable habitat loss and a range shift towards the North is likely to occurNatureRepositório da Universidade de LisboaAlmeida, Alice MariaMartins, Maria JoãoCampagnolo, Manuel LameirasFernandez, PauloAlbuquerque, TeresaGerassis, SakiGonçalves, José CarlosRibeiro, Maria Margarida2022-01-25T10:46:42Z20222022-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/23250engScientific Reports (2022) 12:84https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-03996-0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-03-06T14:52:45Zoai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/23250Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T17:07:31.440311Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Prediction scenarios of past, present, and future environmental suitability for the Mediterranean species Arbutus unedo L.
title Prediction scenarios of past, present, and future environmental suitability for the Mediterranean species Arbutus unedo L.
spellingShingle Prediction scenarios of past, present, and future environmental suitability for the Mediterranean species Arbutus unedo L.
Almeida, Alice Maria
Arbutus unedo
climate changes
adaptation
title_short Prediction scenarios of past, present, and future environmental suitability for the Mediterranean species Arbutus unedo L.
title_full Prediction scenarios of past, present, and future environmental suitability for the Mediterranean species Arbutus unedo L.
title_fullStr Prediction scenarios of past, present, and future environmental suitability for the Mediterranean species Arbutus unedo L.
title_full_unstemmed Prediction scenarios of past, present, and future environmental suitability for the Mediterranean species Arbutus unedo L.
title_sort Prediction scenarios of past, present, and future environmental suitability for the Mediterranean species Arbutus unedo L.
author Almeida, Alice Maria
author_facet Almeida, Alice Maria
Martins, Maria João
Campagnolo, Manuel Lameiras
Fernandez, Paulo
Albuquerque, Teresa
Gerassis, Saki
Gonçalves, José Carlos
Ribeiro, Maria Margarida
author_role author
author2 Martins, Maria João
Campagnolo, Manuel Lameiras
Fernandez, Paulo
Albuquerque, Teresa
Gerassis, Saki
Gonçalves, José Carlos
Ribeiro, Maria Margarida
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Almeida, Alice Maria
Martins, Maria João
Campagnolo, Manuel Lameiras
Fernandez, Paulo
Albuquerque, Teresa
Gerassis, Saki
Gonçalves, José Carlos
Ribeiro, Maria Margarida
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Arbutus unedo
climate changes
adaptation
topic Arbutus unedo
climate changes
adaptation
description Climate change is a challenge for forests in the coming decades, with a major impact on species adaptation and distribution. The Mediterranean Basin is one of the most vulnerable hotspots for biodiversity conservation under climate change in the world. This research aimed at studying a Mediterranean species well adapted to the region: the Arbutus unedo L. (strawberry tree). The MaxEnt, a presence-only species-distribution software, was used to model A. unedo’s environmental suitability. The current species potential distribution was accessed based on actual occurrences and selected environmental variables and subsequently projected for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the Mid-Holocene (MH), and the years 2050 and 2070, considering the two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Results from the LGM projection suggest the presence of refugia in the core of the Mediterranean Basin, in particular the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The projections for the MH indicate increasing climatic suitability for the species and an eastward expansion, relatively to LGM. The predicted future environmental changes will most likely act as a catalyst for suitable habitat loss and a range shift towards the North is likely to occur
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022-01-25T10:46:42Z
2022
2022-01-01T00:00:00Z
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dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Scientific Reports (2022) 12:84
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-03996-0
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