Prediction scenarios of past, present, and future environmental suitability for the Mediterranean species Arbutus unedo L.
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/23250 |
Resumo: | Climate change is a challenge for forests in the coming decades, with a major impact on species adaptation and distribution. The Mediterranean Basin is one of the most vulnerable hotspots for biodiversity conservation under climate change in the world. This research aimed at studying a Mediterranean species well adapted to the region: the Arbutus unedo L. (strawberry tree). The MaxEnt, a presence-only species-distribution software, was used to model A. unedo’s environmental suitability. The current species potential distribution was accessed based on actual occurrences and selected environmental variables and subsequently projected for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the Mid-Holocene (MH), and the years 2050 and 2070, considering the two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Results from the LGM projection suggest the presence of refugia in the core of the Mediterranean Basin, in particular the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The projections for the MH indicate increasing climatic suitability for the species and an eastward expansion, relatively to LGM. The predicted future environmental changes will most likely act as a catalyst for suitable habitat loss and a range shift towards the North is likely to occur |
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Prediction scenarios of past, present, and future environmental suitability for the Mediterranean species Arbutus unedo L.Arbutus unedoclimate changesadaptationClimate change is a challenge for forests in the coming decades, with a major impact on species adaptation and distribution. The Mediterranean Basin is one of the most vulnerable hotspots for biodiversity conservation under climate change in the world. This research aimed at studying a Mediterranean species well adapted to the region: the Arbutus unedo L. (strawberry tree). The MaxEnt, a presence-only species-distribution software, was used to model A. unedo’s environmental suitability. The current species potential distribution was accessed based on actual occurrences and selected environmental variables and subsequently projected for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the Mid-Holocene (MH), and the years 2050 and 2070, considering the two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Results from the LGM projection suggest the presence of refugia in the core of the Mediterranean Basin, in particular the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The projections for the MH indicate increasing climatic suitability for the species and an eastward expansion, relatively to LGM. The predicted future environmental changes will most likely act as a catalyst for suitable habitat loss and a range shift towards the North is likely to occurNatureRepositório da Universidade de LisboaAlmeida, Alice MariaMartins, Maria JoãoCampagnolo, Manuel LameirasFernandez, PauloAlbuquerque, TeresaGerassis, SakiGonçalves, José CarlosRibeiro, Maria Margarida2022-01-25T10:46:42Z20222022-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/23250engScientific Reports (2022) 12:84https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-03996-0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-03-06T14:52:45Zoai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/23250Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T17:07:31.440311Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Prediction scenarios of past, present, and future environmental suitability for the Mediterranean species Arbutus unedo L. |
title |
Prediction scenarios of past, present, and future environmental suitability for the Mediterranean species Arbutus unedo L. |
spellingShingle |
Prediction scenarios of past, present, and future environmental suitability for the Mediterranean species Arbutus unedo L. Almeida, Alice Maria Arbutus unedo climate changes adaptation |
title_short |
Prediction scenarios of past, present, and future environmental suitability for the Mediterranean species Arbutus unedo L. |
title_full |
Prediction scenarios of past, present, and future environmental suitability for the Mediterranean species Arbutus unedo L. |
title_fullStr |
Prediction scenarios of past, present, and future environmental suitability for the Mediterranean species Arbutus unedo L. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Prediction scenarios of past, present, and future environmental suitability for the Mediterranean species Arbutus unedo L. |
title_sort |
Prediction scenarios of past, present, and future environmental suitability for the Mediterranean species Arbutus unedo L. |
author |
Almeida, Alice Maria |
author_facet |
Almeida, Alice Maria Martins, Maria João Campagnolo, Manuel Lameiras Fernandez, Paulo Albuquerque, Teresa Gerassis, Saki Gonçalves, José Carlos Ribeiro, Maria Margarida |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Martins, Maria João Campagnolo, Manuel Lameiras Fernandez, Paulo Albuquerque, Teresa Gerassis, Saki Gonçalves, José Carlos Ribeiro, Maria Margarida |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Almeida, Alice Maria Martins, Maria João Campagnolo, Manuel Lameiras Fernandez, Paulo Albuquerque, Teresa Gerassis, Saki Gonçalves, José Carlos Ribeiro, Maria Margarida |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Arbutus unedo climate changes adaptation |
topic |
Arbutus unedo climate changes adaptation |
description |
Climate change is a challenge for forests in the coming decades, with a major impact on species adaptation and distribution. The Mediterranean Basin is one of the most vulnerable hotspots for biodiversity conservation under climate change in the world. This research aimed at studying a Mediterranean species well adapted to the region: the Arbutus unedo L. (strawberry tree). The MaxEnt, a presence-only species-distribution software, was used to model A. unedo’s environmental suitability. The current species potential distribution was accessed based on actual occurrences and selected environmental variables and subsequently projected for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the Mid-Holocene (MH), and the years 2050 and 2070, considering the two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Results from the LGM projection suggest the presence of refugia in the core of the Mediterranean Basin, in particular the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The projections for the MH indicate increasing climatic suitability for the species and an eastward expansion, relatively to LGM. The predicted future environmental changes will most likely act as a catalyst for suitable habitat loss and a range shift towards the North is likely to occur |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-01-25T10:46:42Z 2022 2022-01-01T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/23250 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/23250 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Scientific Reports (2022) 12:84 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-03996-0 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
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application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Nature |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Nature |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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RCAAP |
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RCAAP |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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1799131169100398592 |