Secular stagnation and the demographic transition: a factor model approach

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Cordeiro, João Maria Pereira
Data de Publicação: 2021
Tipo de documento: Dissertação
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10362/121900
Resumo: Secular stagnation is a tale of ageing economies permanently constrained in a below full-employment steady-state due to aggregate demand shortfalls. Using a factor model combined with a VAR for seven key macro-series augmented with demographics, we investigate the link between the demographic transition and macroeconomic trends. We find that, while a single variable offers an insufficient representation of the recent population dynamics, two factors can account for almost the entire variance of the five variables that best describe the demographic transition. Our results indicate that demographics have exerted significant deflationary and contractionary pressures in the Euro Area and Japan since 1970.
id RCAP_185f9532874f7f9af18d7727ef7b79cc
oai_identifier_str oai:run.unl.pt:10362/121900
network_acronym_str RCAP
network_name_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository_id_str 7160
spelling Secular stagnation and the demographic transition: a factor model approachDemographicsSecular stagnationEffective-lower boundFactorDomínio/Área Científica::Ciências Sociais::Economia e GestãoSecular stagnation is a tale of ageing economies permanently constrained in a below full-employment steady-state due to aggregate demand shortfalls. Using a factor model combined with a VAR for seven key macro-series augmented with demographics, we investigate the link between the demographic transition and macroeconomic trends. We find that, while a single variable offers an insufficient representation of the recent population dynamics, two factors can account for almost the entire variance of the five variables that best describe the demographic transition. Our results indicate that demographics have exerted significant deflationary and contractionary pressures in the Euro Area and Japan since 1970.Duarte, JoãoRUNCordeiro, João Maria Pereira2021-07-31T20:33:37Z2021-01-182021-01-042021-01-18T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10362/121900TID:202743071enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-03-11T05:03:59Zoai:run.unl.pt:10362/121900Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T03:44:44.818184Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Secular stagnation and the demographic transition: a factor model approach
title Secular stagnation and the demographic transition: a factor model approach
spellingShingle Secular stagnation and the demographic transition: a factor model approach
Cordeiro, João Maria Pereira
Demographics
Secular stagnation
Effective-lower bound
Factor
Domínio/Área Científica::Ciências Sociais::Economia e Gestão
title_short Secular stagnation and the demographic transition: a factor model approach
title_full Secular stagnation and the demographic transition: a factor model approach
title_fullStr Secular stagnation and the demographic transition: a factor model approach
title_full_unstemmed Secular stagnation and the demographic transition: a factor model approach
title_sort Secular stagnation and the demographic transition: a factor model approach
author Cordeiro, João Maria Pereira
author_facet Cordeiro, João Maria Pereira
author_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Duarte, João
RUN
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Cordeiro, João Maria Pereira
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Demographics
Secular stagnation
Effective-lower bound
Factor
Domínio/Área Científica::Ciências Sociais::Economia e Gestão
topic Demographics
Secular stagnation
Effective-lower bound
Factor
Domínio/Área Científica::Ciências Sociais::Economia e Gestão
description Secular stagnation is a tale of ageing economies permanently constrained in a below full-employment steady-state due to aggregate demand shortfalls. Using a factor model combined with a VAR for seven key macro-series augmented with demographics, we investigate the link between the demographic transition and macroeconomic trends. We find that, while a single variable offers an insufficient representation of the recent population dynamics, two factors can account for almost the entire variance of the five variables that best describe the demographic transition. Our results indicate that demographics have exerted significant deflationary and contractionary pressures in the Euro Area and Japan since 1970.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021-07-31T20:33:37Z
2021-01-18
2021-01-04
2021-01-18T00:00:00Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis
format masterThesis
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10362/121900
TID:202743071
url http://hdl.handle.net/10362/121900
identifier_str_mv TID:202743071
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
_version_ 1799138054657540096

Registros relacionados