Impacto da política monetária nas principais variáveis macroeconómicas em Portugal

• Autor(a) principal: Tavares, Patrícia Afonso
• Data de Publicação: 2011
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
• Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10071/6106
• topic: Monetary policy; Vector autoregressive; Portuguese financial system; Impulse response function; Política monetária; Vector autoregressivo; Sistema financeiro português; Função resposta a impulsos

The purpose of this paper is to shed light on how monetary policy decisions taken by the European Central Bank (ECB), the most important decision-maker of economic policy in the Euro Zone, affect the main macroeconomic variables in Portugal. A set of 5 variables was considered to be representative of the economic reality of the country and, because of this, are able to affect, directly or indirectly, all economic agents. The variables are: short-term interest rates, equity prices, consumer price index, real gross domestic product and residential property prices. Such monetary policy decisions are referred, especially, to changes in ECB reference rate (refi rate), its most important instrument when trying to cope with its main objective – guarantee financial stability. To do such work, is important to check whether the Portuguese financial system is an open system. To do that, its main features were analyzed, because this has a great influence on the effectiveness of the monetary transmission mechanism described above. Through a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Model, we estimated the interdependence between the different variables considered. After that, and by introducing a shock in short-term interest rate, we calculated an impulse response function in order to check the spread of such a shock in the remaining variables.