Demand Forecasting of a First-Tier Supplier in Automotive Industry Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with Parsimonious Variables
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2021 |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10316/104798 |
Resumo: | Documentos apresentados no âmbito do reconhecimento de graus e diplomas estrangeiros |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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7160 |
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Demand Forecasting of a First-Tier Supplier in Automotive Industry Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with Parsimonious Variablesdemand forecastingautomotive industryneural networkparsimonious variableARIMADocumentos apresentados no âmbito do reconhecimento de graus e diplomas estrangeirosAccurate demand forecasting is compulsory for a first-tier supplier to determine an optimal amount of parts to produce in order to minimize safety stock after supplying to the manufacturer. Producing under an actual order will negatively impact relationships with the industry while overproducing will face unnecessary carrying costs. This study was to develop a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous network (NARX) model to predict part demands of a first-tier supplier and compare its forecasting performances with an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. A parsimonious set of external variables (provisional demand order and the number of non-working days) were considered in the NARX model. The time lags for each variable and demand for the previous period were determined by analyzing autocorrelation functions. The dataset was obtained from a first-tier supplier for a year and divided into 70% training, 15% validation, and 15% testing sets. The performance evaluation resulted in the root mean square error (RMSE) of the proposed model being better than an ARIMA model in both training (18%) and testing (15%) sets. The promising results of the proposed NARX model could be crucial for improving manufacturing planning to efficiently reduce carrying costs and prevent stock out.2021-06info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesishttp://hdl.handle.net/10316/104798http://hdl.handle.net/10316/104798engChon, Kimchanninfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-01-25T21:59:05Zoai:estudogeral.uc.pt:10316/104798Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T21:21:26.762609Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Demand Forecasting of a First-Tier Supplier in Automotive Industry Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with Parsimonious Variables |
title |
Demand Forecasting of a First-Tier Supplier in Automotive Industry Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with Parsimonious Variables |
spellingShingle |
Demand Forecasting of a First-Tier Supplier in Automotive Industry Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with Parsimonious Variables Chon, Kimchann demand forecasting automotive industry neural network parsimonious variable ARIMA |
title_short |
Demand Forecasting of a First-Tier Supplier in Automotive Industry Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with Parsimonious Variables |
title_full |
Demand Forecasting of a First-Tier Supplier in Automotive Industry Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with Parsimonious Variables |
title_fullStr |
Demand Forecasting of a First-Tier Supplier in Automotive Industry Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with Parsimonious Variables |
title_full_unstemmed |
Demand Forecasting of a First-Tier Supplier in Automotive Industry Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with Parsimonious Variables |
title_sort |
Demand Forecasting of a First-Tier Supplier in Automotive Industry Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with Parsimonious Variables |
author |
Chon, Kimchann |
author_facet |
Chon, Kimchann |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Chon, Kimchann |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
demand forecasting automotive industry neural network parsimonious variable ARIMA |
topic |
demand forecasting automotive industry neural network parsimonious variable ARIMA |
description |
Documentos apresentados no âmbito do reconhecimento de graus e diplomas estrangeiros |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-06 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
format |
masterThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10316/104798 http://hdl.handle.net/10316/104798 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10316/104798 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
_version_ |
1799134105111101440 |