Elections, recession expectations and excessive debt: an unholy trinity

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Bohn, Frank
Data de Publicação: 2019
Outros Autores: Veiga, Francisco José
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/1822/66726
Resumo: Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (https ://doi.org/10.1007/s1112 7-019-00647 -x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users
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spelling Elections, recession expectations and excessive debt: an unholy trinityPolitical budget cyclesCountercyclical policiesGovernment deficitPolitical opportunismLocal governmentsPortugalCiências Sociais::Economia e GestãoSocial SciencesD72E32E62H62H63Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (https ://doi.org/10.1007/s1112 7-019-00647 -x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized usersIn the literature, it has been suggested that political budget cycles are context-conditional, i.e., do not occur in all countries or under all circumstances. What about the underlying economic conditions? It has already has been shown that recessionary expectations reinforce the political budget cycle. This paper argues theoretically that opportunistic policymakers expecting a recession during an election year allow the primary deficit to increase even more when the stock of debt is very high, but reduce the deficit by more during an expected boom (in an election year). For the empirical estimation we use panel data from Portuguese municipalities. Plots of average marginal effects for election years show that differences between high- and low-debt municipalities become more pronounced in stronger expected recessions as well as booms; the stronger effect on the deficit in highdebt municipalities is caused by changes on both the revenue and the expenditure side. A whole armada of robustness tests (non-linear effects, alternative specifications of excessive debt and forecasts, various methods to account for time effects and clustering, several sample restrictions) confirms our results.Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT)SpringerUniversidade do MinhoBohn, FrankVeiga, Francisco José20192019-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/1822/66726engBohn, F., Veiga, F.J. Elections, recession expectations and excessive debt: an unholy trinity. Public Choice 180, 429–449 (2019). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-019-00647-x0048-582910.1007/s11127-019-00647-xhttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11127-019-00647-xinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-07-21T12:38:06Zoai:repositorium.sdum.uminho.pt:1822/66726Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T19:34:28.977382Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Elections, recession expectations and excessive debt: an unholy trinity
title Elections, recession expectations and excessive debt: an unholy trinity
spellingShingle Elections, recession expectations and excessive debt: an unholy trinity
Bohn, Frank
Political budget cycles
Countercyclical policies
Government deficit
Political opportunism
Local governments
Portugal
Ciências Sociais::Economia e Gestão
Social Sciences
D72
E32
E62
H62
H63
title_short Elections, recession expectations and excessive debt: an unholy trinity
title_full Elections, recession expectations and excessive debt: an unholy trinity
title_fullStr Elections, recession expectations and excessive debt: an unholy trinity
title_full_unstemmed Elections, recession expectations and excessive debt: an unholy trinity
title_sort Elections, recession expectations and excessive debt: an unholy trinity
author Bohn, Frank
author_facet Bohn, Frank
Veiga, Francisco José
author_role author
author2 Veiga, Francisco José
author2_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Universidade do Minho
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Bohn, Frank
Veiga, Francisco José
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Political budget cycles
Countercyclical policies
Government deficit
Political opportunism
Local governments
Portugal
Ciências Sociais::Economia e Gestão
Social Sciences
D72
E32
E62
H62
H63
topic Political budget cycles
Countercyclical policies
Government deficit
Political opportunism
Local governments
Portugal
Ciências Sociais::Economia e Gestão
Social Sciences
D72
E32
E62
H62
H63
description Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (https ://doi.org/10.1007/s1112 7-019-00647 -x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users
publishDate 2019
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2019
2019-01-01T00:00:00Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/1822/66726
url http://hdl.handle.net/1822/66726
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Bohn, F., Veiga, F.J. Elections, recession expectations and excessive debt: an unholy trinity. Public Choice 180, 429–449 (2019). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-019-00647-x
0048-5829
10.1007/s11127-019-00647-x
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11127-019-00647-x
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
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