Analysis and Simulation of Epidemic COVID-19 Curves with the Verhulst Model Applied to Statistical Inhomogeneous Age Groups
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2021 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10316/103717 https://doi.org/10.3390/app11094159 |
Resumo: | Pandemic curves, such as COVID-19, often show multiple and unpredictable contamination peaks, often called second, third and fourth waves, which are separated by wide plateaus. Here, by considering the statistical inhomogeneity of age groups, we show a quantitative understanding of the different behaviour rules to flatten a pandemic COVID-19 curve and concomitant multi-peak recurrence. The simulations are based on the Verhulst model with analytical generalized logistic equations for the limited growth. From the log–lin plot, we observe an early exponential growth proportional to et/tgrow . The first peak is often grow = 5 d. The exponential growth is followed by a recovery phase with an exponential decay proportional to et/trecov . For the characteristic time holds: tgrow < trecov. Even with isolation, outbreaks due to returning travellers can result in a recurrence of multi-peaks visible on log–lin scales. The exponential growth for the first wave is faster than for the succeeding waves, with characteristic times, of about 10 d. Our analysis ascertains that isolation is an efficient method in preventing contamination and enables an improved strategy for scientists, governments and the general public to timely balance between medical burdens, mental health, socio-economic and educational interests. |
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Analysis and Simulation of Epidemic COVID-19 Curves with the Verhulst Model Applied to Statistical Inhomogeneous Age GroupsCOVID-19pandemicscontamination peakslimited growth modelsVerhulst modellogistic equationsPandemic curves, such as COVID-19, often show multiple and unpredictable contamination peaks, often called second, third and fourth waves, which are separated by wide plateaus. Here, by considering the statistical inhomogeneity of age groups, we show a quantitative understanding of the different behaviour rules to flatten a pandemic COVID-19 curve and concomitant multi-peak recurrence. The simulations are based on the Verhulst model with analytical generalized logistic equations for the limited growth. From the log–lin plot, we observe an early exponential growth proportional to et/tgrow . The first peak is often grow = 5 d. The exponential growth is followed by a recovery phase with an exponential decay proportional to et/trecov . For the characteristic time holds: tgrow < trecov. Even with isolation, outbreaks due to returning travellers can result in a recurrence of multi-peaks visible on log–lin scales. The exponential growth for the first wave is faster than for the succeeding waves, with characteristic times, of about 10 d. Our analysis ascertains that isolation is an efficient method in preventing contamination and enables an improved strategy for scientists, governments and the general public to timely balance between medical burdens, mental health, socio-economic and educational interests.MDPI2021info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://hdl.handle.net/10316/103717http://hdl.handle.net/10316/103717https://doi.org/10.3390/app11094159eng2076-3417Vandamme, Lode K. J.Rocha, Paulo R. F.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2022-11-23T21:37:04Zoai:estudogeral.uc.pt:10316/103717Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T21:20:30.202598Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Analysis and Simulation of Epidemic COVID-19 Curves with the Verhulst Model Applied to Statistical Inhomogeneous Age Groups |
title |
Analysis and Simulation of Epidemic COVID-19 Curves with the Verhulst Model Applied to Statistical Inhomogeneous Age Groups |
spellingShingle |
Analysis and Simulation of Epidemic COVID-19 Curves with the Verhulst Model Applied to Statistical Inhomogeneous Age Groups Vandamme, Lode K. J. COVID-19 pandemics contamination peaks limited growth models Verhulst model logistic equations |
title_short |
Analysis and Simulation of Epidemic COVID-19 Curves with the Verhulst Model Applied to Statistical Inhomogeneous Age Groups |
title_full |
Analysis and Simulation of Epidemic COVID-19 Curves with the Verhulst Model Applied to Statistical Inhomogeneous Age Groups |
title_fullStr |
Analysis and Simulation of Epidemic COVID-19 Curves with the Verhulst Model Applied to Statistical Inhomogeneous Age Groups |
title_full_unstemmed |
Analysis and Simulation of Epidemic COVID-19 Curves with the Verhulst Model Applied to Statistical Inhomogeneous Age Groups |
title_sort |
Analysis and Simulation of Epidemic COVID-19 Curves with the Verhulst Model Applied to Statistical Inhomogeneous Age Groups |
author |
Vandamme, Lode K. J. |
author_facet |
Vandamme, Lode K. J. Rocha, Paulo R. F. |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Rocha, Paulo R. F. |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Vandamme, Lode K. J. Rocha, Paulo R. F. |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
COVID-19 pandemics contamination peaks limited growth models Verhulst model logistic equations |
topic |
COVID-19 pandemics contamination peaks limited growth models Verhulst model logistic equations |
description |
Pandemic curves, such as COVID-19, often show multiple and unpredictable contamination peaks, often called second, third and fourth waves, which are separated by wide plateaus. Here, by considering the statistical inhomogeneity of age groups, we show a quantitative understanding of the different behaviour rules to flatten a pandemic COVID-19 curve and concomitant multi-peak recurrence. The simulations are based on the Verhulst model with analytical generalized logistic equations for the limited growth. From the log–lin plot, we observe an early exponential growth proportional to et/tgrow . The first peak is often grow = 5 d. The exponential growth is followed by a recovery phase with an exponential decay proportional to et/trecov . For the characteristic time holds: tgrow < trecov. Even with isolation, outbreaks due to returning travellers can result in a recurrence of multi-peaks visible on log–lin scales. The exponential growth for the first wave is faster than for the succeeding waves, with characteristic times, of about 10 d. Our analysis ascertains that isolation is an efficient method in preventing contamination and enables an improved strategy for scientists, governments and the general public to timely balance between medical burdens, mental health, socio-economic and educational interests. |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2021 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10316/103717 http://hdl.handle.net/10316/103717 https://doi.org/10.3390/app11094159 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10316/103717 https://doi.org/10.3390/app11094159 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
2076-3417 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
MDPI |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
MDPI |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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RCAAP |
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RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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1799134097731223552 |