Mathematical modelling, simulation, and optimal control of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Rachah, A.
Data de Publicação: 2015
Outros Autores: Torres, D. F. M.
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10773/14650
Resumo: The Ebola virus is currently one of the most virulent pathogens for humans. The latest major outbreak occurred in Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia in 2014. With the aim of understanding the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to modelize the virus and simulate it. In this paper, we begin by studying a simple mathematical model that describes the 2014 Ebola outbreak in Liberia. Then, we use numerical simulations and available data provided by the World Health Organization to validate the obtained mathematical model. Moreover, we develop a new mathematical model including vaccination of individuals. We discuss different cases of vaccination in order to predict the effect of vaccination on the infected individuals over time. Finally, we apply optimal control to study the impact of vaccination on the spread of the Ebola virus. The optimal control problem is solved numerically by using a direct multiple shooting method.
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spelling Mathematical modelling, simulation, and optimal control of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West AfricaEbola virusThe Ebola virus is currently one of the most virulent pathogens for humans. The latest major outbreak occurred in Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia in 2014. With the aim of understanding the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to modelize the virus and simulate it. In this paper, we begin by studying a simple mathematical model that describes the 2014 Ebola outbreak in Liberia. Then, we use numerical simulations and available data provided by the World Health Organization to validate the obtained mathematical model. Moreover, we develop a new mathematical model including vaccination of individuals. We discuss different cases of vaccination in order to predict the effect of vaccination on the infected individuals over time. Finally, we apply optimal control to study the impact of vaccination on the spread of the Ebola virus. The optimal control problem is solved numerically by using a direct multiple shooting method.Hindawi Publishing Corporation2015-09-16T17:50:11Z2015-01-01T00:00:00Z2015info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10773/14650eng1026-022610.1155/2015/842792Rachah, A.Torres, D. F. M.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-02-22T11:26:49Zoai:ria.ua.pt:10773/14650Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T02:50:11.392319Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Mathematical modelling, simulation, and optimal control of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa
title Mathematical modelling, simulation, and optimal control of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa
spellingShingle Mathematical modelling, simulation, and optimal control of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa
Rachah, A.
Ebola virus
title_short Mathematical modelling, simulation, and optimal control of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa
title_full Mathematical modelling, simulation, and optimal control of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa
title_fullStr Mathematical modelling, simulation, and optimal control of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa
title_full_unstemmed Mathematical modelling, simulation, and optimal control of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa
title_sort Mathematical modelling, simulation, and optimal control of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa
author Rachah, A.
author_facet Rachah, A.
Torres, D. F. M.
author_role author
author2 Torres, D. F. M.
author2_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Rachah, A.
Torres, D. F. M.
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Ebola virus
topic Ebola virus
description The Ebola virus is currently one of the most virulent pathogens for humans. The latest major outbreak occurred in Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia in 2014. With the aim of understanding the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to modelize the virus and simulate it. In this paper, we begin by studying a simple mathematical model that describes the 2014 Ebola outbreak in Liberia. Then, we use numerical simulations and available data provided by the World Health Organization to validate the obtained mathematical model. Moreover, we develop a new mathematical model including vaccination of individuals. We discuss different cases of vaccination in order to predict the effect of vaccination on the infected individuals over time. Finally, we apply optimal control to study the impact of vaccination on the spread of the Ebola virus. The optimal control problem is solved numerically by using a direct multiple shooting method.
publishDate 2015
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2015-09-16T17:50:11Z
2015-01-01T00:00:00Z
2015
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10773/14650
url http://hdl.handle.net/10773/14650
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv 1026-0226
10.1155/2015/842792
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
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dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Hindawi Publishing Corporation
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Hindawi Publishing Corporation
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instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
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repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
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