Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor in Portugal: Evidence from causality analysis

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Bento, João Paulo Cerdeira
Data de Publicação: 2012
Outros Autores: Santos, Madalena
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: https://doi.org/10.34624/rtd.v3i17/18.13347
Resumo: This paper investigates empirically the role of tourism in the Portuguese long-run economic output growth on quarterly data (1997:1 to 2010:4). The augmented Granger causality test approach developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) is employed to ascertain the direction of causality between variables in a bi-variate vector autoregressions (VAR) system using the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) method. The results provide evidence of a strong one-way directional causality between tourism and economic growth and the necessary argument to support the tourism led growth hypothesis. This result has important policy implications for where government investments should be targeted giving a further catalyst to economic growth.  
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spelling Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor in Portugal: Evidence from causality analysisThis paper investigates empirically the role of tourism in the Portuguese long-run economic output growth on quarterly data (1997:1 to 2010:4). The augmented Granger causality test approach developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) is employed to ascertain the direction of causality between variables in a bi-variate vector autoregressions (VAR) system using the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) method. The results provide evidence of a strong one-way directional causality between tourism and economic growth and the necessary argument to support the tourism led growth hypothesis. This result has important policy implications for where government investments should be targeted giving a further catalyst to economic growth.  Este artigo faz uma investigação empírica sobre o papel do turismo no crescimento económico de longo prazo em Portugal. Para tal, foram utilizados os dados disponíveis: valores trimestrais de 1997 a 2010. Foi utilizada a análise de causalidade de Granger desenvolvida por Toda e Yamamoto (1995), para verificar a direção da causalidade entre as variáveis, num sistema VAR (“ bi-variate vector autoregression”) utilizando o método SUR (“Seemingly Unrelated Regression”). Os resultados evidenciaram uma importante causalidade unidireccional entre o turismo e o crescimento económico, confirmando a hipótese do setor do turismo gerar crescimento. Este resultado revela-se assim importante em termos de políticas públicas de investimento, mostrando como o turismo pode ser catalisador de crescimento económico.  Departamento de Economia, Gestão, Engenharia Industrial e Turismo da Universidade de Aveiro2012-01-01T00:00:00Zjournal articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://doi.org/10.34624/rtd.v3i17/18.13347oai:proa.ua.pt:article/13347Journal of Tourism & Development; Vol 3 No 17/18 (2012); 1759-1765Revista Turismo & Desenvolvimento; vol. 3 n.º 17/18 (2012); 1759-17652182-14531645-9261reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAPenghttps://proa.ua.pt/index.php/rtd/article/view/13347https://doi.org/10.34624/rtd.v3i17/18.13347https://proa.ua.pt/index.php/rtd/article/view/13347/8913https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessBento, João Paulo CerdeiraSantos, Madalena2022-09-26T10:57:20Zoai:proa.ua.pt:article/13347Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T16:05:58.998556Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor in Portugal: Evidence from causality analysis
title Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor in Portugal: Evidence from causality analysis
spellingShingle Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor in Portugal: Evidence from causality analysis
Bento, João Paulo Cerdeira
title_short Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor in Portugal: Evidence from causality analysis
title_full Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor in Portugal: Evidence from causality analysis
title_fullStr Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor in Portugal: Evidence from causality analysis
title_full_unstemmed Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor in Portugal: Evidence from causality analysis
title_sort Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor in Portugal: Evidence from causality analysis
author Bento, João Paulo Cerdeira
author_facet Bento, João Paulo Cerdeira
Santos, Madalena
author_role author
author2 Santos, Madalena
author2_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Bento, João Paulo Cerdeira
Santos, Madalena
description This paper investigates empirically the role of tourism in the Portuguese long-run economic output growth on quarterly data (1997:1 to 2010:4). The augmented Granger causality test approach developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) is employed to ascertain the direction of causality between variables in a bi-variate vector autoregressions (VAR) system using the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) method. The results provide evidence of a strong one-way directional causality between tourism and economic growth and the necessary argument to support the tourism led growth hypothesis. This result has important policy implications for where government investments should be targeted giving a further catalyst to economic growth.  
publishDate 2012
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2012-01-01T00:00:00Z
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv journal article
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://doi.org/10.34624/rtd.v3i17/18.13347
oai:proa.ua.pt:article/13347
url https://doi.org/10.34624/rtd.v3i17/18.13347
identifier_str_mv oai:proa.ua.pt:article/13347
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://proa.ua.pt/index.php/rtd/article/view/13347
https://doi.org/10.34624/rtd.v3i17/18.13347
https://proa.ua.pt/index.php/rtd/article/view/13347/8913
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Departamento de Economia, Gestão, Engenharia Industrial e Turismo da Universidade de Aveiro
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Departamento de Economia, Gestão, Engenharia Industrial e Turismo da Universidade de Aveiro
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Journal of Tourism & Development; Vol 3 No 17/18 (2012); 1759-1765
Revista Turismo & Desenvolvimento; vol. 3 n.º 17/18 (2012); 1759-1765
2182-1453
1645-9261
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
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repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
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