Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor in Portugal: Evidence from causality analysis
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2012 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | https://doi.org/10.34624/rtd.v3i17/18.13347 |
Resumo: | This paper investigates empirically the role of tourism in the Portuguese long-run economic output growth on quarterly data (1997:1 to 2010:4). The augmented Granger causality test approach developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) is employed to ascertain the direction of causality between variables in a bi-variate vector autoregressions (VAR) system using the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) method. The results provide evidence of a strong one-way directional causality between tourism and economic growth and the necessary argument to support the tourism led growth hypothesis. This result has important policy implications for where government investments should be targeted giving a further catalyst to economic growth. |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor in Portugal: Evidence from causality analysisThis paper investigates empirically the role of tourism in the Portuguese long-run economic output growth on quarterly data (1997:1 to 2010:4). The augmented Granger causality test approach developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) is employed to ascertain the direction of causality between variables in a bi-variate vector autoregressions (VAR) system using the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) method. The results provide evidence of a strong one-way directional causality between tourism and economic growth and the necessary argument to support the tourism led growth hypothesis. This result has important policy implications for where government investments should be targeted giving a further catalyst to economic growth. Este artigo faz uma investigação empírica sobre o papel do turismo no crescimento económico de longo prazo em Portugal. Para tal, foram utilizados os dados disponíveis: valores trimestrais de 1997 a 2010. Foi utilizada a análise de causalidade de Granger desenvolvida por Toda e Yamamoto (1995), para verificar a direção da causalidade entre as variáveis, num sistema VAR (“ bi-variate vector autoregression”) utilizando o método SUR (“Seemingly Unrelated Regression”). Os resultados evidenciaram uma importante causalidade unidireccional entre o turismo e o crescimento económico, confirmando a hipótese do setor do turismo gerar crescimento. Este resultado revela-se assim importante em termos de políticas públicas de investimento, mostrando como o turismo pode ser catalisador de crescimento económico. Departamento de Economia, Gestão, Engenharia Industrial e Turismo da Universidade de Aveiro2012-01-01T00:00:00Zjournal articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://doi.org/10.34624/rtd.v3i17/18.13347oai:proa.ua.pt:article/13347Journal of Tourism & Development; Vol 3 No 17/18 (2012); 1759-1765Revista Turismo & Desenvolvimento; vol. 3 n.º 17/18 (2012); 1759-17652182-14531645-9261reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAPenghttps://proa.ua.pt/index.php/rtd/article/view/13347https://doi.org/10.34624/rtd.v3i17/18.13347https://proa.ua.pt/index.php/rtd/article/view/13347/8913https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessBento, João Paulo CerdeiraSantos, Madalena2022-09-26T10:57:20Zoai:proa.ua.pt:article/13347Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T16:05:58.998556Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor in Portugal: Evidence from causality analysis |
title |
Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor in Portugal: Evidence from causality analysis |
spellingShingle |
Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor in Portugal: Evidence from causality analysis Bento, João Paulo Cerdeira |
title_short |
Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor in Portugal: Evidence from causality analysis |
title_full |
Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor in Portugal: Evidence from causality analysis |
title_fullStr |
Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor in Portugal: Evidence from causality analysis |
title_full_unstemmed |
Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor in Portugal: Evidence from causality analysis |
title_sort |
Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor in Portugal: Evidence from causality analysis |
author |
Bento, João Paulo Cerdeira |
author_facet |
Bento, João Paulo Cerdeira Santos, Madalena |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Santos, Madalena |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Bento, João Paulo Cerdeira Santos, Madalena |
description |
This paper investigates empirically the role of tourism in the Portuguese long-run economic output growth on quarterly data (1997:1 to 2010:4). The augmented Granger causality test approach developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) is employed to ascertain the direction of causality between variables in a bi-variate vector autoregressions (VAR) system using the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) method. The results provide evidence of a strong one-way directional causality between tourism and economic growth and the necessary argument to support the tourism led growth hypothesis. This result has important policy implications for where government investments should be targeted giving a further catalyst to economic growth. |
publishDate |
2012 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2012-01-01T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
journal article info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://doi.org/10.34624/rtd.v3i17/18.13347 oai:proa.ua.pt:article/13347 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.34624/rtd.v3i17/18.13347 |
identifier_str_mv |
oai:proa.ua.pt:article/13347 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://proa.ua.pt/index.php/rtd/article/view/13347 https://doi.org/10.34624/rtd.v3i17/18.13347 https://proa.ua.pt/index.php/rtd/article/view/13347/8913 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Departamento de Economia, Gestão, Engenharia Industrial e Turismo da Universidade de Aveiro |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Departamento de Economia, Gestão, Engenharia Industrial e Turismo da Universidade de Aveiro |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Journal of Tourism & Development; Vol 3 No 17/18 (2012); 1759-1765 Revista Turismo & Desenvolvimento; vol. 3 n.º 17/18 (2012); 1759-1765 2182-1453 1645-9261 reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
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1799130521590038528 |