Good news and bad news are still news

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Coutts, Alexander
Data de Publicação: 2019
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-018-9572-5
Resumo: Funding agency: Russell Sage Foundation
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spelling Good news and bad news are still newsexperimental evidence on belief updatingAsymmetric belief updatingBayes’ ruleBeliefsConservatismOverconfidenceEconomics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)Funding agency: Russell Sage FoundationBayesian updating remains the benchmark for dynamic modeling under uncertainty within economics. Recent theory and evidence suggest individuals may process information asymmetrically when it relates to personal characteristics or future life outcomes, with good news receiving more weight than bad news. I examine information processing across a broad set of contexts: (1) ego relevant, (2) financially relevant, and (3) non value relevant. In the first two cases, information about outcomes is valenced, containing either good or bad news. In the third case, information is value neutral. In contrast to a number of previous studies I do not find differences in belief updating across valenced and value neutral settings. Updating across all contexts is asymmetric and conservative: the former is influenced by sequences of signals received, a new variation of confirmation bias, while the latter is driven by non-updates. Despite this, posteriors are well approximated by those calculated using Bayes’ rule. Most importantly these patterns are present across all contexts, cautioning against the interpretation of asymmetric updating or other deviations from Bayes’ rule as being motivated by psychological biases.NOVA School of Business and Economics (NOVA SBE)RUNCoutts, Alexander2019-01-17T23:40:55Z2019-06-152019-06-15T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/article27application/pdfhttps://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-018-9572-5eng1386-4157PURE: 4041526http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85045657141&partnerID=8YFLogxKhttps://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-018-9572-5info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-03-11T04:27:52Zoai:run.unl.pt:10362/57811Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T03:33:07.248892Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Good news and bad news are still news
experimental evidence on belief updating
title Good news and bad news are still news
spellingShingle Good news and bad news are still news
Coutts, Alexander
Asymmetric belief updating
Bayes’ rule
Beliefs
Conservatism
Overconfidence
Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)
title_short Good news and bad news are still news
title_full Good news and bad news are still news
title_fullStr Good news and bad news are still news
title_full_unstemmed Good news and bad news are still news
title_sort Good news and bad news are still news
author Coutts, Alexander
author_facet Coutts, Alexander
author_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv NOVA School of Business and Economics (NOVA SBE)
RUN
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Coutts, Alexander
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Asymmetric belief updating
Bayes’ rule
Beliefs
Conservatism
Overconfidence
Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)
topic Asymmetric belief updating
Bayes’ rule
Beliefs
Conservatism
Overconfidence
Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)
description Funding agency: Russell Sage Foundation
publishDate 2019
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2019-01-17T23:40:55Z
2019-06-15
2019-06-15T00:00:00Z
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PURE: 4041526
http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85045657141&partnerID=8YFLogxK
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-018-9572-5
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