Good news and bad news are still news
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2019 |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-018-9572-5 |
Resumo: | Funding agency: Russell Sage Foundation |
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Good news and bad news are still newsexperimental evidence on belief updatingAsymmetric belief updatingBayes’ ruleBeliefsConservatismOverconfidenceEconomics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)Funding agency: Russell Sage FoundationBayesian updating remains the benchmark for dynamic modeling under uncertainty within economics. Recent theory and evidence suggest individuals may process information asymmetrically when it relates to personal characteristics or future life outcomes, with good news receiving more weight than bad news. I examine information processing across a broad set of contexts: (1) ego relevant, (2) financially relevant, and (3) non value relevant. In the first two cases, information about outcomes is valenced, containing either good or bad news. In the third case, information is value neutral. In contrast to a number of previous studies I do not find differences in belief updating across valenced and value neutral settings. Updating across all contexts is asymmetric and conservative: the former is influenced by sequences of signals received, a new variation of confirmation bias, while the latter is driven by non-updates. Despite this, posteriors are well approximated by those calculated using Bayes’ rule. Most importantly these patterns are present across all contexts, cautioning against the interpretation of asymmetric updating or other deviations from Bayes’ rule as being motivated by psychological biases.NOVA School of Business and Economics (NOVA SBE)RUNCoutts, Alexander2019-01-17T23:40:55Z2019-06-152019-06-15T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/article27application/pdfhttps://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-018-9572-5eng1386-4157PURE: 4041526http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85045657141&partnerID=8YFLogxKhttps://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-018-9572-5info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-03-11T04:27:52Zoai:run.unl.pt:10362/57811Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T03:33:07.248892Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Good news and bad news are still news experimental evidence on belief updating |
title |
Good news and bad news are still news |
spellingShingle |
Good news and bad news are still news Coutts, Alexander Asymmetric belief updating Bayes’ rule Beliefs Conservatism Overconfidence Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous) |
title_short |
Good news and bad news are still news |
title_full |
Good news and bad news are still news |
title_fullStr |
Good news and bad news are still news |
title_full_unstemmed |
Good news and bad news are still news |
title_sort |
Good news and bad news are still news |
author |
Coutts, Alexander |
author_facet |
Coutts, Alexander |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
NOVA School of Business and Economics (NOVA SBE) RUN |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Coutts, Alexander |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Asymmetric belief updating Bayes’ rule Beliefs Conservatism Overconfidence Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous) |
topic |
Asymmetric belief updating Bayes’ rule Beliefs Conservatism Overconfidence Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous) |
description |
Funding agency: Russell Sage Foundation |
publishDate |
2019 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2019-01-17T23:40:55Z 2019-06-15 2019-06-15T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-018-9572-5 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-018-9572-5 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
1386-4157 PURE: 4041526 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85045657141&partnerID=8YFLogxK https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-018-9572-5 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
27 application/pdf |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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RCAAP |
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RCAAP |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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1799137953418575872 |