Trade potential revisited: a panel data analysis for Zimbabwe
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2015 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/10669 |
Resumo: | This paper notes that previous results on trade potential based on a panel data set may be biased and proposes the adequate Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood method to estimate trade potential based on the elasticity estimates generated by a gravity model, with conclusions on trade potential based on confidence intervals estimated with the Delta method. This approach had not been yet considered in the literature for panel data. This methodology is used to evaluate Zimbabwe export potential in a period characterized by strong restrictions on trade, based on the elasticity estimates generated by an augmented gravity model for six Southern African Development Community member countries and their exports to the rest of the world. Results show that Zimbabwe has a large unexploited trade potential which will not be realized without political stability and structural reforms. For comparison purposes, we also present the gravity coefficients calculated with other estimation methods. |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Trade potential revisited: a panel data analysis for ZimbabweGravity ModelExport PotentialPoisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood EstimatorPanel DataConfidence IntervalsDelta MethodZimbabweSouthern Africa Development CommunityThis paper notes that previous results on trade potential based on a panel data set may be biased and proposes the adequate Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood method to estimate trade potential based on the elasticity estimates generated by a gravity model, with conclusions on trade potential based on confidence intervals estimated with the Delta method. This approach had not been yet considered in the literature for panel data. This methodology is used to evaluate Zimbabwe export potential in a period characterized by strong restrictions on trade, based on the elasticity estimates generated by an augmented gravity model for six Southern African Development Community member countries and their exports to the rest of the world. Results show that Zimbabwe has a large unexploited trade potential which will not be realized without political stability and structural reforms. For comparison purposes, we also present the gravity coefficients calculated with other estimation methods.ISEG – Departamento de EconomiaRepositório da Universidade de LisboaMartínez-Galán, EnriqueProença, IsabelFontoura, Maria Paula2016-01-14T15:01:27Z20152015-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/10669engMartínez-Galán, Enrique, Isabel Proença and Maria Paula Fontoura .2015. "Trade potential revisited: a panel data analysis for Zimbabwe". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão. DE Working papers nº 14-2015/DE/UECE/CEMAPRE2183-1815info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-11-19T01:31:25Zoai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/10669Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T16:57:05.734877Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Trade potential revisited: a panel data analysis for Zimbabwe |
title |
Trade potential revisited: a panel data analysis for Zimbabwe |
spellingShingle |
Trade potential revisited: a panel data analysis for Zimbabwe Martínez-Galán, Enrique Gravity Model Export Potential Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimator Panel Data Confidence Intervals Delta Method Zimbabwe Southern Africa Development Community |
title_short |
Trade potential revisited: a panel data analysis for Zimbabwe |
title_full |
Trade potential revisited: a panel data analysis for Zimbabwe |
title_fullStr |
Trade potential revisited: a panel data analysis for Zimbabwe |
title_full_unstemmed |
Trade potential revisited: a panel data analysis for Zimbabwe |
title_sort |
Trade potential revisited: a panel data analysis for Zimbabwe |
author |
Martínez-Galán, Enrique |
author_facet |
Martínez-Galán, Enrique Proença, Isabel Fontoura, Maria Paula |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Proença, Isabel Fontoura, Maria Paula |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Martínez-Galán, Enrique Proença, Isabel Fontoura, Maria Paula |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Gravity Model Export Potential Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimator Panel Data Confidence Intervals Delta Method Zimbabwe Southern Africa Development Community |
topic |
Gravity Model Export Potential Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimator Panel Data Confidence Intervals Delta Method Zimbabwe Southern Africa Development Community |
description |
This paper notes that previous results on trade potential based on a panel data set may be biased and proposes the adequate Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood method to estimate trade potential based on the elasticity estimates generated by a gravity model, with conclusions on trade potential based on confidence intervals estimated with the Delta method. This approach had not been yet considered in the literature for panel data. This methodology is used to evaluate Zimbabwe export potential in a period characterized by strong restrictions on trade, based on the elasticity estimates generated by an augmented gravity model for six Southern African Development Community member countries and their exports to the rest of the world. Results show that Zimbabwe has a large unexploited trade potential which will not be realized without political stability and structural reforms. For comparison purposes, we also present the gravity coefficients calculated with other estimation methods. |
publishDate |
2015 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2015 2015-01-01T00:00:00Z 2016-01-14T15:01:27Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/10669 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/10669 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Martínez-Galán, Enrique, Isabel Proença and Maria Paula Fontoura .2015. "Trade potential revisited: a panel data analysis for Zimbabwe". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão. DE Working papers nº 14-2015/DE/UECE/CEMAPRE 2183-1815 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
ISEG – Departamento de Economia |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
ISEG – Departamento de Economia |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
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1799131053508526080 |