Trade in the enlarged European Union : a new approach on trade potential

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Proença, Isabel
Data de Publicação: 2008
Outros Autores: Fontoura, Paula, Martínez-Galán, Enrique
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/15576
Resumo: This paper focuses on the trade potential of manufactured exports from countries belonging to the enlarged EU (EU25) to groups of countries of that economic area in 2002. We note that previous results on trade potential, based on the estimation of a gravity model, may be invalid. Thus, we propose a correct approach based on the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood esti- mator and the calculation of confidence intervals with the Delta method. The gravity model includes fixed eff ects to capture bilateral trade specificities be- tween country groupings. We conclude that CEEC as a group had apparently exhausted the possibilities for export expansion in the EU25, unless dynamic changes were to take place. However, several of the remaining EU25 countries had not yet reached their export potential to the EU25 markets, including to the CEEC as a group.
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spelling Trade in the enlarged European Union : a new approach on trade potentialEuropean UnionGravity modelPoisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood estimatorTrade potentialConfidence intervalsDelta methodThis paper focuses on the trade potential of manufactured exports from countries belonging to the enlarged EU (EU25) to groups of countries of that economic area in 2002. We note that previous results on trade potential, based on the estimation of a gravity model, may be invalid. Thus, we propose a correct approach based on the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood esti- mator and the calculation of confidence intervals with the Delta method. The gravity model includes fixed eff ects to capture bilateral trade specificities be- tween country groupings. We conclude that CEEC as a group had apparently exhausted the possibilities for export expansion in the EU25, unless dynamic changes were to take place. However, several of the remaining EU25 countries had not yet reached their export potential to the EU25 markets, including to the CEEC as a group.Springer VerlagRepositório da Universidade de LisboaProença, IsabelFontoura, PaulaMartínez-Galán, Enrique2018-06-07T14:48:54Z2008-122008-12-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/15576engProença, Isabel, Paula Fontoura and Enrique Martínez-Galán (2008). "Trade in the enlarged European Union : a new approach on trade potential". Portuguese Economic Journal, Vol. 7, No 3: pp. 205-2241617-982X (print)10.1007/s10258-008-0033-5metadata only accessinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-03-06T14:45:31Zoai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/15576Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T17:01:11.161974Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Trade in the enlarged European Union : a new approach on trade potential
title Trade in the enlarged European Union : a new approach on trade potential
spellingShingle Trade in the enlarged European Union : a new approach on trade potential
Proença, Isabel
European Union
Gravity model
Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood estimator
Trade potential
Confidence intervals
Delta method
title_short Trade in the enlarged European Union : a new approach on trade potential
title_full Trade in the enlarged European Union : a new approach on trade potential
title_fullStr Trade in the enlarged European Union : a new approach on trade potential
title_full_unstemmed Trade in the enlarged European Union : a new approach on trade potential
title_sort Trade in the enlarged European Union : a new approach on trade potential
author Proença, Isabel
author_facet Proença, Isabel
Fontoura, Paula
Martínez-Galán, Enrique
author_role author
author2 Fontoura, Paula
Martínez-Galán, Enrique
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Proença, Isabel
Fontoura, Paula
Martínez-Galán, Enrique
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv European Union
Gravity model
Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood estimator
Trade potential
Confidence intervals
Delta method
topic European Union
Gravity model
Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood estimator
Trade potential
Confidence intervals
Delta method
description This paper focuses on the trade potential of manufactured exports from countries belonging to the enlarged EU (EU25) to groups of countries of that economic area in 2002. We note that previous results on trade potential, based on the estimation of a gravity model, may be invalid. Thus, we propose a correct approach based on the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood esti- mator and the calculation of confidence intervals with the Delta method. The gravity model includes fixed eff ects to capture bilateral trade specificities be- tween country groupings. We conclude that CEEC as a group had apparently exhausted the possibilities for export expansion in the EU25, unless dynamic changes were to take place. However, several of the remaining EU25 countries had not yet reached their export potential to the EU25 markets, including to the CEEC as a group.
publishDate 2008
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2008-12
2008-12-01T00:00:00Z
2018-06-07T14:48:54Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/15576
url http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/15576
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Proença, Isabel, Paula Fontoura and Enrique Martínez-Galán (2008). "Trade in the enlarged European Union : a new approach on trade potential". Portuguese Economic Journal, Vol. 7, No 3: pp. 205-224
1617-982X (print)
10.1007/s10258-008-0033-5
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv metadata only access
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dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer Verlag
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer Verlag
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
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reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
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