Trade in the enlarged European Union : a new approach on trade potential
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2008 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/15576 |
Resumo: | This paper focuses on the trade potential of manufactured exports from countries belonging to the enlarged EU (EU25) to groups of countries of that economic area in 2002. We note that previous results on trade potential, based on the estimation of a gravity model, may be invalid. Thus, we propose a correct approach based on the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood esti- mator and the calculation of confidence intervals with the Delta method. The gravity model includes fixed eff ects to capture bilateral trade specificities be- tween country groupings. We conclude that CEEC as a group had apparently exhausted the possibilities for export expansion in the EU25, unless dynamic changes were to take place. However, several of the remaining EU25 countries had not yet reached their export potential to the EU25 markets, including to the CEEC as a group. |
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Trade in the enlarged European Union : a new approach on trade potentialEuropean UnionGravity modelPoisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood estimatorTrade potentialConfidence intervalsDelta methodThis paper focuses on the trade potential of manufactured exports from countries belonging to the enlarged EU (EU25) to groups of countries of that economic area in 2002. We note that previous results on trade potential, based on the estimation of a gravity model, may be invalid. Thus, we propose a correct approach based on the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood esti- mator and the calculation of confidence intervals with the Delta method. The gravity model includes fixed eff ects to capture bilateral trade specificities be- tween country groupings. We conclude that CEEC as a group had apparently exhausted the possibilities for export expansion in the EU25, unless dynamic changes were to take place. However, several of the remaining EU25 countries had not yet reached their export potential to the EU25 markets, including to the CEEC as a group.Springer VerlagRepositório da Universidade de LisboaProença, IsabelFontoura, PaulaMartínez-Galán, Enrique2018-06-07T14:48:54Z2008-122008-12-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/15576engProença, Isabel, Paula Fontoura and Enrique Martínez-Galán (2008). "Trade in the enlarged European Union : a new approach on trade potential". Portuguese Economic Journal, Vol. 7, No 3: pp. 205-2241617-982X (print)10.1007/s10258-008-0033-5metadata only accessinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-03-06T14:45:31Zoai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/15576Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T17:01:11.161974Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Trade in the enlarged European Union : a new approach on trade potential |
title |
Trade in the enlarged European Union : a new approach on trade potential |
spellingShingle |
Trade in the enlarged European Union : a new approach on trade potential Proença, Isabel European Union Gravity model Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood estimator Trade potential Confidence intervals Delta method |
title_short |
Trade in the enlarged European Union : a new approach on trade potential |
title_full |
Trade in the enlarged European Union : a new approach on trade potential |
title_fullStr |
Trade in the enlarged European Union : a new approach on trade potential |
title_full_unstemmed |
Trade in the enlarged European Union : a new approach on trade potential |
title_sort |
Trade in the enlarged European Union : a new approach on trade potential |
author |
Proença, Isabel |
author_facet |
Proença, Isabel Fontoura, Paula Martínez-Galán, Enrique |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Fontoura, Paula Martínez-Galán, Enrique |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Proença, Isabel Fontoura, Paula Martínez-Galán, Enrique |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
European Union Gravity model Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood estimator Trade potential Confidence intervals Delta method |
topic |
European Union Gravity model Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood estimator Trade potential Confidence intervals Delta method |
description |
This paper focuses on the trade potential of manufactured exports from countries belonging to the enlarged EU (EU25) to groups of countries of that economic area in 2002. We note that previous results on trade potential, based on the estimation of a gravity model, may be invalid. Thus, we propose a correct approach based on the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood esti- mator and the calculation of confidence intervals with the Delta method. The gravity model includes fixed eff ects to capture bilateral trade specificities be- tween country groupings. We conclude that CEEC as a group had apparently exhausted the possibilities for export expansion in the EU25, unless dynamic changes were to take place. However, several of the remaining EU25 countries had not yet reached their export potential to the EU25 markets, including to the CEEC as a group. |
publishDate |
2008 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2008-12 2008-12-01T00:00:00Z 2018-06-07T14:48:54Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/15576 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/15576 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Proença, Isabel, Paula Fontoura and Enrique Martínez-Galán (2008). "Trade in the enlarged European Union : a new approach on trade potential". Portuguese Economic Journal, Vol. 7, No 3: pp. 205-224 1617-982X (print) 10.1007/s10258-008-0033-5 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
metadata only access info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
metadata only access |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Springer Verlag |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Springer Verlag |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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1799131100540305408 |