Excess mortality attributed to heat and cold: a health impact assessment study in 854 cities in Europe
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2023 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/9133 |
Resumo: | MCC Collaborative Research Network: Souzana Achilleos (Department of Primary Care and Population Health, University of Nicosia Medical School, Nicosia, Cyprus), Jan Kyselý (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Prague, Czech Republic), Ene Indermitte (Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia), Jouni J K Jaakkola and Niilo Ryti (Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research, and Medical Research Center Oulu, Oulu University Hospital, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland), Mathilde Pascal (Santé Publique France, Department of Environmental Health, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice, France), Antonis Analitis (Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece), Klea Katsouyanni (School of Population Health and Environmental Sciences, King’s College, London, UK), Patrick Goodman (Technological University Dublin, Dublin, Ireland), Ariana Zeka (Institute for the Environment, Brunel University London, London, UK), Paola Michelozzi (Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy), Danny Houthuijs and Caroline Ameling (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, Bilthoven, Netherlands), Shilpa Rao (Norwegian institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway), Susana das Neves Pereira da Silva and Joana Madureira (Department of Epidemiology, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Lisbon, Portugal), Iulian-Horia Holobaca (Faculty of Geography, Babes-Bolay University, Cluj-Napoca, Romania), Aurelio Tobias (Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona, Spain), Carmen Íñiguez (Department of Statistics and Computational Research, Universitat de València, València, Spain), Bertil Forsberg (Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden), and Martina S Ragettli (Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland). |
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Excess mortality attributed to heat and cold: a health impact assessment study in 854 cities in EuropeColdHeatCold TemperatureHeat TemperatureMortalityMulti-Country Multi-CityCitiesHealth Impact AssessmentEuropeDeterminantes da Saúde e da DoençaAvaliação do Impacte em SaúdeMCC Collaborative Research Network: Souzana Achilleos (Department of Primary Care and Population Health, University of Nicosia Medical School, Nicosia, Cyprus), Jan Kyselý (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Prague, Czech Republic), Ene Indermitte (Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia), Jouni J K Jaakkola and Niilo Ryti (Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research, and Medical Research Center Oulu, Oulu University Hospital, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland), Mathilde Pascal (Santé Publique France, Department of Environmental Health, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice, France), Antonis Analitis (Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece), Klea Katsouyanni (School of Population Health and Environmental Sciences, King’s College, London, UK), Patrick Goodman (Technological University Dublin, Dublin, Ireland), Ariana Zeka (Institute for the Environment, Brunel University London, London, UK), Paola Michelozzi (Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy), Danny Houthuijs and Caroline Ameling (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, Bilthoven, Netherlands), Shilpa Rao (Norwegian institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway), Susana das Neves Pereira da Silva and Joana Madureira (Department of Epidemiology, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Lisbon, Portugal), Iulian-Horia Holobaca (Faculty of Geography, Babes-Bolay University, Cluj-Napoca, Romania), Aurelio Tobias (Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona, Spain), Carmen Íñiguez (Department of Statistics and Computational Research, Universitat de València, València, Spain), Bertil Forsberg (Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden), and Martina S Ragettli (Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland).Expression of concern in: Expression of concern: Excess mortality attributed to heat and cold: a health impact assessment study in 854 cities in Europe. The Lancet Planetary Health Editors. Lancet Planet Health. 2024 Feb 8:S2542-5196(24)00022-6. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00022-6. Online ahead of print.Background: Heat and cold are established environmental risk factors for human health. However, mapping the related health burden is a difficult task due to the complexity of the associations and the differences in vulnerability and demographic distributions. In this study, we did a comprehensive mortality impact assessment due to heat and cold in European urban areas, considering geographical differences and age-specific risks. Methods: We included urban areas across Europe between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 12, 2019, using the Urban Audit dataset of Eurostat and adults aged 20 years and older living in these areas. Data were extracted from Eurostat, the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, and Copernicus. We applied a three-stage method to estimate risks of temperature continuously across the age and space dimensions, identifying patterns of vulnerability on the basis of city-specific characteristics and demographic structures. These risks were used to derive minimum mortality temperatures and related percentiles and raw and standardised excess mortality rates for heat and cold aggregated at various geographical levels. Findings: Across the 854 urban areas in Europe, we estimated an annual excess of 203 620 (empirical 95% CI 180 882-224 613) deaths attributed to cold and 20 173 (17 261-22 934) attributed to heat. These corresponded to age-standardised rates of 129 (empirical 95% CI 114-142) and 13 (11-14) deaths per 100 000 person-years. Results differed across Europe and age groups, with the highest effects in eastern European cities for both cold and heat. Interpretation: Maps of mortality risks and excess deaths indicate geographical differences, such as a north-south gradient and increased vulnerability in eastern Europe, as well as local variations due to urban characteristics. The modelling framework and results are crucial for the design of national and local health and climate policies and for projecting the effects of cold and heat under future climatic and socioeconomic scenarios.Funding: The study was funded by Medical Research Council of the UK (MR/V034162/1 and MR/R013349/1), the Natural Environment Research Council UK (NE/R009384/1), the EU’s Horizon 2020 (820655), and the EU’s Joint Research Center (JRC/SVQ/2020/MVP/1654). AU and JK were supported by the Czech Science Foundation (22–24920S). VH has received funding from the EU’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement (101032087).ElsevierRepositório Científico do Instituto Nacional de SaúdeMasselot, PierreMistry, MalcolmVanoli, JacopoSchneider, RochelleIungman, TamaraGarcia-Leon, DavidCiscar, Juan-CarlosFeyen, LucOrru, HansUrban, AlešBreitner, SusanneHuber, VeronikaSchneider, AlexandraSamoli, EvangeliaStafoggia, Massimode’Donato, FrancescaRao, ShilpaArmstrong, BenNieuwenhuijsen, MarkVicedo-Cabrera, Ana MariaGasparrini, AntonioAchilleos, SouzanaKyselý, JanIndermitte, EneJaakkola, Jouni J.K.Ryti, NiiloPascal, MathildeKatsouyanni, KleaAnalitis, AntonisGoodman, PatrickZeka, ArianaMichelozzi, PaolaHouthuijs, DannyAmeling, CarolineSilva, SusanaMadureira, JoanaHolobaca, Iulian-HoriaTobias, AurelioÍñiguez, CarmenForsberg, BertilÅström, ChristoferRagettli, Martina S.Surname, First nameZafeiratou, SofiaVazquez Fernandez, LilianaMonteiro, AnaRai, MasnaZhang, SiqiAunan, Kristin2024-02-21T14:12:48Z2023-03-162023-03-16T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/9133engLancet Planet Health. 2023 Apr;7(4):e271-e281. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00023-2. Epub 2023 Mar 16.2542-519610.1016/S2542-5196(23)00023-2info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-03-09T01:30:47Zoai:repositorio.insa.pt:10400.18/9133Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T03:11:15.170255Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Excess mortality attributed to heat and cold: a health impact assessment study in 854 cities in Europe |
title |
Excess mortality attributed to heat and cold: a health impact assessment study in 854 cities in Europe |
spellingShingle |
Excess mortality attributed to heat and cold: a health impact assessment study in 854 cities in Europe Masselot, Pierre Cold Heat Cold Temperature Heat Temperature Mortality Multi-Country Multi-City Cities Health Impact Assessment Europe Determinantes da Saúde e da Doença Avaliação do Impacte em Saúde |
title_short |
Excess mortality attributed to heat and cold: a health impact assessment study in 854 cities in Europe |
title_full |
Excess mortality attributed to heat and cold: a health impact assessment study in 854 cities in Europe |
title_fullStr |
Excess mortality attributed to heat and cold: a health impact assessment study in 854 cities in Europe |
title_full_unstemmed |
Excess mortality attributed to heat and cold: a health impact assessment study in 854 cities in Europe |
title_sort |
Excess mortality attributed to heat and cold: a health impact assessment study in 854 cities in Europe |
author |
Masselot, Pierre |
author_facet |
Masselot, Pierre Mistry, Malcolm Vanoli, Jacopo Schneider, Rochelle Iungman, Tamara Garcia-Leon, David Ciscar, Juan-Carlos Feyen, Luc Orru, Hans Urban, Aleš Breitner, Susanne Huber, Veronika Schneider, Alexandra Samoli, Evangelia Stafoggia, Massimo de’Donato, Francesca Rao, Shilpa Armstrong, Ben Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria Gasparrini, Antonio Achilleos, Souzana Kyselý, Jan Indermitte, Ene Jaakkola, Jouni J.K. Ryti, Niilo Pascal, Mathilde Katsouyanni, Klea Analitis, Antonis Goodman, Patrick Zeka, Ariana Michelozzi, Paola Houthuijs, Danny Ameling, Caroline Silva, Susana Madureira, Joana Holobaca, Iulian-Horia Tobias, Aurelio Íñiguez, Carmen Forsberg, Bertil Åström, Christofer Ragettli, Martina S. Surname, First name Zafeiratou, Sofia Vazquez Fernandez, Liliana Monteiro, Ana Rai, Masna Zhang, Siqi Aunan, Kristin |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Mistry, Malcolm Vanoli, Jacopo Schneider, Rochelle Iungman, Tamara Garcia-Leon, David Ciscar, Juan-Carlos Feyen, Luc Orru, Hans Urban, Aleš Breitner, Susanne Huber, Veronika Schneider, Alexandra Samoli, Evangelia Stafoggia, Massimo de’Donato, Francesca Rao, Shilpa Armstrong, Ben Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria Gasparrini, Antonio Achilleos, Souzana Kyselý, Jan Indermitte, Ene Jaakkola, Jouni J.K. Ryti, Niilo Pascal, Mathilde Katsouyanni, Klea Analitis, Antonis Goodman, Patrick Zeka, Ariana Michelozzi, Paola Houthuijs, Danny Ameling, Caroline Silva, Susana Madureira, Joana Holobaca, Iulian-Horia Tobias, Aurelio Íñiguez, Carmen Forsberg, Bertil Åström, Christofer Ragettli, Martina S. Surname, First name Zafeiratou, Sofia Vazquez Fernandez, Liliana Monteiro, Ana Rai, Masna Zhang, Siqi Aunan, Kristin |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico do Instituto Nacional de Saúde |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Masselot, Pierre Mistry, Malcolm Vanoli, Jacopo Schneider, Rochelle Iungman, Tamara Garcia-Leon, David Ciscar, Juan-Carlos Feyen, Luc Orru, Hans Urban, Aleš Breitner, Susanne Huber, Veronika Schneider, Alexandra Samoli, Evangelia Stafoggia, Massimo de’Donato, Francesca Rao, Shilpa Armstrong, Ben Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria Gasparrini, Antonio Achilleos, Souzana Kyselý, Jan Indermitte, Ene Jaakkola, Jouni J.K. Ryti, Niilo Pascal, Mathilde Katsouyanni, Klea Analitis, Antonis Goodman, Patrick Zeka, Ariana Michelozzi, Paola Houthuijs, Danny Ameling, Caroline Silva, Susana Madureira, Joana Holobaca, Iulian-Horia Tobias, Aurelio Íñiguez, Carmen Forsberg, Bertil Åström, Christofer Ragettli, Martina S. Surname, First name Zafeiratou, Sofia Vazquez Fernandez, Liliana Monteiro, Ana Rai, Masna Zhang, Siqi Aunan, Kristin |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Cold Heat Cold Temperature Heat Temperature Mortality Multi-Country Multi-City Cities Health Impact Assessment Europe Determinantes da Saúde e da Doença Avaliação do Impacte em Saúde |
topic |
Cold Heat Cold Temperature Heat Temperature Mortality Multi-Country Multi-City Cities Health Impact Assessment Europe Determinantes da Saúde e da Doença Avaliação do Impacte em Saúde |
description |
MCC Collaborative Research Network: Souzana Achilleos (Department of Primary Care and Population Health, University of Nicosia Medical School, Nicosia, Cyprus), Jan Kyselý (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Prague, Czech Republic), Ene Indermitte (Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia), Jouni J K Jaakkola and Niilo Ryti (Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research, and Medical Research Center Oulu, Oulu University Hospital, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland), Mathilde Pascal (Santé Publique France, Department of Environmental Health, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice, France), Antonis Analitis (Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece), Klea Katsouyanni (School of Population Health and Environmental Sciences, King’s College, London, UK), Patrick Goodman (Technological University Dublin, Dublin, Ireland), Ariana Zeka (Institute for the Environment, Brunel University London, London, UK), Paola Michelozzi (Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy), Danny Houthuijs and Caroline Ameling (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, Bilthoven, Netherlands), Shilpa Rao (Norwegian institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway), Susana das Neves Pereira da Silva and Joana Madureira (Department of Epidemiology, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Lisbon, Portugal), Iulian-Horia Holobaca (Faculty of Geography, Babes-Bolay University, Cluj-Napoca, Romania), Aurelio Tobias (Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona, Spain), Carmen Íñiguez (Department of Statistics and Computational Research, Universitat de València, València, Spain), Bertil Forsberg (Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden), and Martina S Ragettli (Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland). |
publishDate |
2023 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2023-03-16 2023-03-16T00:00:00Z 2024-02-21T14:12:48Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
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article |
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publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/9133 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.18/9133 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Lancet Planet Health. 2023 Apr;7(4):e271-e281. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00023-2. Epub 2023 Mar 16. 2542-5196 10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00023-2 |
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openAccess |
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Elsevier |
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Elsevier |
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