Seasonality anomalies in the cryptocurrency market
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/40835 |
Resumo: | This study revisits the market efficiency theory, evaluating one anomaly analyzed and comprised in Fama’s market efficiency theory (1991), seasonalities of returns in securities. This topic has been thoroughly analyzed for traditional financial instruments such as stocks and currencies. After describing most of the seasonality typologies found in the literature, this study proposes a similar analysis for cryptocurrencies. The Weekend effect, Weekly effect, Monthly effect, and Halloween effect are explored with a focus on potential differences among different 3 assets. Prices, volumes, returns, and market capitalization are considered to evaluate potential seasonalities. The results show that, as per the traditional securities, seasonalities persist in the cryptocurrency market reflecting a size effect in the magnitude of the effects isolated. These effects recur significantly for Mondays or Fridays or during the November-April semester returns. Monthly effects have been found; however, seasonal returns seem to occur differently from the stock market, potentially because of the lack of the tax payment loss distinguishing firms. Further research should dig deeper into how the nature and size of coins are influencing this effect. Moreover, the impacting role of institutional investors is disregarded, and further studies should evaluate if this impact would affect the anomaly, diminishing it as occurred in the stock market. From an asset pricing perspective, the exploitability of this anomaly should be evaluated to accept or not the weak form of market efficiency. |
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Seasonality anomalies in the cryptocurrency marketMarket efficiencySeasonalityWeekend effectCryptocurrencySize effectEficiência de mercadoSazonalidadeEfeito de fim-de-semanaCriptomoedaEfeito de dimensãoDomínio/Área Científica::Ciências Sociais::Economia e GestãoThis study revisits the market efficiency theory, evaluating one anomaly analyzed and comprised in Fama’s market efficiency theory (1991), seasonalities of returns in securities. This topic has been thoroughly analyzed for traditional financial instruments such as stocks and currencies. After describing most of the seasonality typologies found in the literature, this study proposes a similar analysis for cryptocurrencies. The Weekend effect, Weekly effect, Monthly effect, and Halloween effect are explored with a focus on potential differences among different 3 assets. Prices, volumes, returns, and market capitalization are considered to evaluate potential seasonalities. The results show that, as per the traditional securities, seasonalities persist in the cryptocurrency market reflecting a size effect in the magnitude of the effects isolated. These effects recur significantly for Mondays or Fridays or during the November-April semester returns. Monthly effects have been found; however, seasonal returns seem to occur differently from the stock market, potentially because of the lack of the tax payment loss distinguishing firms. Further research should dig deeper into how the nature and size of coins are influencing this effect. Moreover, the impacting role of institutional investors is disregarded, and further studies should evaluate if this impact would affect the anomaly, diminishing it as occurred in the stock market. From an asset pricing perspective, the exploitability of this anomaly should be evaluated to accept or not the weak form of market efficiency.Este estudo retoma a Teoria dos Mercados Eficientes, avaliando uma anomalia analisada e compreendida na Teoria dos Mercados Eficientes de Fama (1991), a sazonalidade dos rendimentos de títulos. Este tópico foi profundamente analisado para instrumentos financeiros tradicionais, tais como acções e moedas. Após reaver uma grande parte das tipologias de sazonalidades encontradas na História, é proposto um estudo referente a criptomoedas. O efeito Fim-de-semana, efeito Semanal, efeito Mensal, e efeito Halloween são explorados com foco nas potenciais diferenças entre os diferentes activos. Preços, volumes, ganhos e capitalização de mercado são considerados para avaliar as potenciais sazonalidades existentes. Os resultados mostram que, de acordo com os títulos tradicionais, as sazonalidades persistem no mercado de criptomoedas, reflectindo um efeito de Dimensão na magnitude dos efeitos isolados. Estes efeitos repetem-se significativamente às Segundas ou Sextas-feiras ou durante os rendimentos do semestre de Novembro-Abril. Foram encontrados efeitos mensais, todavia, os ganhos sazonais parecem ocorrer de forma diferente do mercado de acções, potencialmente devido à ausência de perda do pagamento de impostos que distingue as empresas. Uma investigação mais exaustiva deverá aprofundar a forma como a natureza e o tamanho da moeda influencia este efeito. Além disso, o papel do impacto dos investidores institucionais é ignorado, sendo que outros estudos deverão avaliar se este impacto afecta a anomalia, atenuando-a tal como ocorreu no mercado bolsista. Do ponto de vista do preço dos activos, a explorabilidade desta anomalia deve ser avaliada de modo a aceitar ou rejeitar a forma fraca de eficiência de mercado.Schliephake, EvaVeritati - Repositório Institucional da Universidade Católica PortuguesaOssola, Davide2023-09-14T00:30:25Z2022-10-182022-092022-10-18T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/40835TID:203132904enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-09-19T01:41:48Zoai:repositorio.ucp.pt:10400.14/40835Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T18:33:31.703682Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Seasonality anomalies in the cryptocurrency market |
title |
Seasonality anomalies in the cryptocurrency market |
spellingShingle |
Seasonality anomalies in the cryptocurrency market Ossola, Davide Market efficiency Seasonality Weekend effect Cryptocurrency Size effect Eficiência de mercado Sazonalidade Efeito de fim-de-semana Criptomoeda Efeito de dimensão Domínio/Área Científica::Ciências Sociais::Economia e Gestão |
title_short |
Seasonality anomalies in the cryptocurrency market |
title_full |
Seasonality anomalies in the cryptocurrency market |
title_fullStr |
Seasonality anomalies in the cryptocurrency market |
title_full_unstemmed |
Seasonality anomalies in the cryptocurrency market |
title_sort |
Seasonality anomalies in the cryptocurrency market |
author |
Ossola, Davide |
author_facet |
Ossola, Davide |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Schliephake, Eva Veritati - Repositório Institucional da Universidade Católica Portuguesa |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Ossola, Davide |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Market efficiency Seasonality Weekend effect Cryptocurrency Size effect Eficiência de mercado Sazonalidade Efeito de fim-de-semana Criptomoeda Efeito de dimensão Domínio/Área Científica::Ciências Sociais::Economia e Gestão |
topic |
Market efficiency Seasonality Weekend effect Cryptocurrency Size effect Eficiência de mercado Sazonalidade Efeito de fim-de-semana Criptomoeda Efeito de dimensão Domínio/Área Científica::Ciências Sociais::Economia e Gestão |
description |
This study revisits the market efficiency theory, evaluating one anomaly analyzed and comprised in Fama’s market efficiency theory (1991), seasonalities of returns in securities. This topic has been thoroughly analyzed for traditional financial instruments such as stocks and currencies. After describing most of the seasonality typologies found in the literature, this study proposes a similar analysis for cryptocurrencies. The Weekend effect, Weekly effect, Monthly effect, and Halloween effect are explored with a focus on potential differences among different 3 assets. Prices, volumes, returns, and market capitalization are considered to evaluate potential seasonalities. The results show that, as per the traditional securities, seasonalities persist in the cryptocurrency market reflecting a size effect in the magnitude of the effects isolated. These effects recur significantly for Mondays or Fridays or during the November-April semester returns. Monthly effects have been found; however, seasonal returns seem to occur differently from the stock market, potentially because of the lack of the tax payment loss distinguishing firms. Further research should dig deeper into how the nature and size of coins are influencing this effect. Moreover, the impacting role of institutional investors is disregarded, and further studies should evaluate if this impact would affect the anomaly, diminishing it as occurred in the stock market. From an asset pricing perspective, the exploitability of this anomaly should be evaluated to accept or not the weak form of market efficiency. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-10-18 2022-09 2022-10-18T00:00:00Z 2023-09-14T00:30:25Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
format |
masterThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/40835 TID:203132904 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/40835 |
identifier_str_mv |
TID:203132904 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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RCAAP |
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RCAAP |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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