A historical approach to the new secular stagnation hypothesis

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Godinho, Frederico Carneiro mira
Data de Publicação: 2016
Tipo de documento: Dissertação
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10362/16849
Resumo: In this paper, we analyze the behavior of real interest rates over the long-run using historical data for nine developed economies, to assess the extent to which the recent decline observed in most advanced countries is at odds with the past data, as suggested by the Secular Stagnation hypothesis. By using data from 1703 and performing stationarity and structural breaks tests, we find that the recent decline in interest rates is not explained by a structural break in the time series. Our results also show that considering long-run data leads to different conclusions than using short-run data.
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spelling A historical approach to the new secular stagnation hypothesisReal interest ratesSecular stagnationGreat recessionTime seriesDomínio/Área Científica::Ciências Sociais::Economia e GestãoIn this paper, we analyze the behavior of real interest rates over the long-run using historical data for nine developed economies, to assess the extent to which the recent decline observed in most advanced countries is at odds with the past data, as suggested by the Secular Stagnation hypothesis. By using data from 1703 and performing stationarity and structural breaks tests, we find that the recent decline in interest rates is not explained by a structural break in the time series. Our results also show that considering long-run data leads to different conclusions than using short-run data.Freitas, Miguel Lebre deAfonso, AntonioRUNGodinho, Frederico Carneiro mira2017-01-30T01:30:12Z2016-012016-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10362/16849TID:201524082enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-03-11T03:54:07Zoai:run.unl.pt:10362/16849Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T03:23:33.599460Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv A historical approach to the new secular stagnation hypothesis
title A historical approach to the new secular stagnation hypothesis
spellingShingle A historical approach to the new secular stagnation hypothesis
Godinho, Frederico Carneiro mira
Real interest rates
Secular stagnation
Great recession
Time series
Domínio/Área Científica::Ciências Sociais::Economia e Gestão
title_short A historical approach to the new secular stagnation hypothesis
title_full A historical approach to the new secular stagnation hypothesis
title_fullStr A historical approach to the new secular stagnation hypothesis
title_full_unstemmed A historical approach to the new secular stagnation hypothesis
title_sort A historical approach to the new secular stagnation hypothesis
author Godinho, Frederico Carneiro mira
author_facet Godinho, Frederico Carneiro mira
author_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Freitas, Miguel Lebre de
Afonso, Antonio
RUN
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Godinho, Frederico Carneiro mira
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Real interest rates
Secular stagnation
Great recession
Time series
Domínio/Área Científica::Ciências Sociais::Economia e Gestão
topic Real interest rates
Secular stagnation
Great recession
Time series
Domínio/Área Científica::Ciências Sociais::Economia e Gestão
description In this paper, we analyze the behavior of real interest rates over the long-run using historical data for nine developed economies, to assess the extent to which the recent decline observed in most advanced countries is at odds with the past data, as suggested by the Secular Stagnation hypothesis. By using data from 1703 and performing stationarity and structural breaks tests, we find that the recent decline in interest rates is not explained by a structural break in the time series. Our results also show that considering long-run data leads to different conclusions than using short-run data.
publishDate 2016
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2016-01
2016-01-01T00:00:00Z
2017-01-30T01:30:12Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis
format masterThesis
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10362/16849
TID:201524082
url http://hdl.handle.net/10362/16849
identifier_str_mv TID:201524082
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccess
eu_rights_str_mv embargoedAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
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instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
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repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
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