Which heatwave measure has higher predictive power to prevent health risks related to heat : EHF or GATO IV? : evidence from modelling Lisbon mortality data from 1980 to 2016
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2020 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10451/44972 |
Resumo: | © 2020 The Authors.Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). |
id |
RCAP_d3da3f72421c4687323e313ba8d98506 |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:repositorio.ul.pt:10451/44972 |
network_acronym_str |
RCAP |
network_name_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository_id_str |
7160 |
spelling |
Which heatwave measure has higher predictive power to prevent health risks related to heat : EHF or GATO IV? : evidence from modelling Lisbon mortality data from 1980 to 2016GATO IVEHFPublic healthHeatwavesHeat healthSurveillance system© 2020 The Authors.Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).To prevent the risk associated with heat-related health, several countries and institutions have built heat-health warning systems (HHWS). An HHWS is designed to alert the general public and decision-makers about the danger of high temperature by triggering a series of actions that avoid adverse health outcomes. The comparison of the various HHWS is complicated because there is no universal quantitative definition to predict and define a heatwave. The slightest variability at the threshold of definition the heatwave can trigger considerable differences in the action plan, health service demand and the time the population at risk must prepare. The choice of the index influences the number of days of heatwaves and its characteristics, such as severity. Estimating the risk of mortality associated with heatwave is variable according to the indexes, and the selection of the threshold is essential to prevent the burdens of heat on public health. The aim is the comparison between two metrics to know, which has higher predictive power to prevent health risks related to heat. On the one hand, a new way of defining heatwaves that have generated high consensus worldwide - the Excess Heat Factor (EHF); on the other hand, the Generalized Accumulated Thermal Overload (GATO IV) – an opportunity to improve the existing Lisbon heatwaves surveillance system. Daily mortalities and air temperatures from 1980 to 2016 in Lisbon with both indexes are modelled using Generalized Linear Models, with the calculation of the predictive power of the models using ROC curves for two levels of mortality severity. It is concluded that for total mortality, both indexes were statistically significant. Though, for daily mortality in individuals with 65 years or older with all diseases of the circulatory and respiratory system, when considering both indexes together, GATO IV was the only index significantly predicting the impact of heatwaves on mortality. GATO IV metric seems to have the best statistical properties. Nevertheless, EHF also stands out as a good indicator to predict heat-related mortality in Lisbon.This work was supported by the Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT), Portugal; and Qart - Soluções de Monitorizaçãao e Mapeamento Urbano Ambiental, Lda. [PhD research grant number PDE/BDE/ 120452/2016].ElsevierRepositório da Universidade de LisboaMorais, LilianeLopes, AntónioNogueira, Paulo Jorge2020-11-24T10:41:09Z20202020-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10451/44972engWeather and Climate Extremes, Vol. 30, 202010.1016/j.wace.2020.1002872212-0947info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-11-08T16:46:21Zoai:repositorio.ul.pt:10451/44972Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T21:57:27.067570Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Which heatwave measure has higher predictive power to prevent health risks related to heat : EHF or GATO IV? : evidence from modelling Lisbon mortality data from 1980 to 2016 |
title |
Which heatwave measure has higher predictive power to prevent health risks related to heat : EHF or GATO IV? : evidence from modelling Lisbon mortality data from 1980 to 2016 |
spellingShingle |
Which heatwave measure has higher predictive power to prevent health risks related to heat : EHF or GATO IV? : evidence from modelling Lisbon mortality data from 1980 to 2016 Morais, Liliane GATO IV EHF Public health Heatwaves Heat health Surveillance system |
title_short |
Which heatwave measure has higher predictive power to prevent health risks related to heat : EHF or GATO IV? : evidence from modelling Lisbon mortality data from 1980 to 2016 |
title_full |
Which heatwave measure has higher predictive power to prevent health risks related to heat : EHF or GATO IV? : evidence from modelling Lisbon mortality data from 1980 to 2016 |
title_fullStr |
Which heatwave measure has higher predictive power to prevent health risks related to heat : EHF or GATO IV? : evidence from modelling Lisbon mortality data from 1980 to 2016 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Which heatwave measure has higher predictive power to prevent health risks related to heat : EHF or GATO IV? : evidence from modelling Lisbon mortality data from 1980 to 2016 |
title_sort |
Which heatwave measure has higher predictive power to prevent health risks related to heat : EHF or GATO IV? : evidence from modelling Lisbon mortality data from 1980 to 2016 |
author |
Morais, Liliane |
author_facet |
Morais, Liliane Lopes, António Nogueira, Paulo Jorge |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Lopes, António Nogueira, Paulo Jorge |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Morais, Liliane Lopes, António Nogueira, Paulo Jorge |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
GATO IV EHF Public health Heatwaves Heat health Surveillance system |
topic |
GATO IV EHF Public health Heatwaves Heat health Surveillance system |
description |
© 2020 The Authors.Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-11-24T10:41:09Z 2020 2020-01-01T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10451/44972 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10451/44972 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Weather and Climate Extremes, Vol. 30, 2020 10.1016/j.wace.2020.100287 2212-0947 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
_version_ |
1799134518273114112 |