Monthly prediction of drought classes using log-linear models under the influence of NAO for early-warning of drought and water management

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Moreira, Elsa
Data de Publicação: 2018
Outros Autores: Russo, Ana, Trigo, Ricardo M.
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: https://doi.org/10.3390/w10010065
Resumo: SFRH/BPD/99757/2014 This work was partially supported by the projects IMDROFLOOD-Improving Drought and Flood Early Warning, Forecasting and Mitigation using real-time hydroclimatic indicators (WaterJPI/0004/2014) and project UID/MAT/00297/2013 (Centro de Matematica e Aplicacoes), both funded by funded by Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia, Portugal (FCT). Ana Russo thanks also FCT by the Post-Doc research grant SFRH/BPD/99757/2014.
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spelling Monthly prediction of drought classes using log-linear models under the influence of NAO for early-warning of drought and water managementDrought classesLog-linear modelingNorth Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)PersistenceStandardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)BiochemistryGeography, Planning and DevelopmentAquatic ScienceWater Science and TechnologySDG 13 - Climate ActionSFRH/BPD/99757/2014 This work was partially supported by the projects IMDROFLOOD-Improving Drought and Flood Early Warning, Forecasting and Mitigation using real-time hydroclimatic indicators (WaterJPI/0004/2014) and project UID/MAT/00297/2013 (Centro de Matematica e Aplicacoes), both funded by funded by Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia, Portugal (FCT). Ana Russo thanks also FCT by the Post-Doc research grant SFRH/BPD/99757/2014.Drought class transitions over a sector of Eastern Europe were modeled using log-linear models. These drought class transitions were computed from time series of two widely used multiscale drought indices, the Standardized Preipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), with temporal scales of 6 and 12 months for 15 points selected from a grid over the Prut basin in Romania over a period of 112 years (1902-2014). The modeling also took into account the impact of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), exploring the potential influence of this large-scale atmospheric driver on the climate of the Prut region. To assess the probability of transition among different drought classes we computed their odds and the corresponding confidence intervals. To evaluate the predictive capabilities of the modeling, skill scores were computed and used for comparison against benchmark models, namely using persistence forecasts or modeling without the influence of the NAO index. The main results indicate that the log-linear modeling performs consistently better than the persistence forecast, and the highest improvements obtained in the skill scores with the introduction of the NAO predictor in the modeling are obtained when modeling the extended winter months of the SPEI6 and SPI12. The improvements are however not impressive, ranging between 4.7 and 6.8 for the SPEI6 and between 4.1 and 10.1 for the SPI12, in terms of the Heidke skill score.CMA - Centro de Matemática e AplicaçõesRUNMoreira, ElsaRusso, AnaTrigo, Ricardo M.2019-04-02T22:16:13Z2018-01-122018-01-12T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://doi.org/10.3390/w10010065eng2073-4441PURE: 11651289http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85040779526&partnerID=8YFLogxKhttps://doi.org/10.3390/w10010065info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-03-11T04:31:06Zoai:run.unl.pt:10362/65376Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T03:34:19.676414Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Monthly prediction of drought classes using log-linear models under the influence of NAO for early-warning of drought and water management
title Monthly prediction of drought classes using log-linear models under the influence of NAO for early-warning of drought and water management
spellingShingle Monthly prediction of drought classes using log-linear models under the influence of NAO for early-warning of drought and water management
Moreira, Elsa
Drought classes
Log-linear modeling
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
Persistence
Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)
Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
Biochemistry
Geography, Planning and Development
Aquatic Science
Water Science and Technology
SDG 13 - Climate Action
title_short Monthly prediction of drought classes using log-linear models under the influence of NAO for early-warning of drought and water management
title_full Monthly prediction of drought classes using log-linear models under the influence of NAO for early-warning of drought and water management
title_fullStr Monthly prediction of drought classes using log-linear models under the influence of NAO for early-warning of drought and water management
title_full_unstemmed Monthly prediction of drought classes using log-linear models under the influence of NAO for early-warning of drought and water management
title_sort Monthly prediction of drought classes using log-linear models under the influence of NAO for early-warning of drought and water management
author Moreira, Elsa
author_facet Moreira, Elsa
Russo, Ana
Trigo, Ricardo M.
author_role author
author2 Russo, Ana
Trigo, Ricardo M.
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv CMA - Centro de Matemática e Aplicações
RUN
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Moreira, Elsa
Russo, Ana
Trigo, Ricardo M.
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Drought classes
Log-linear modeling
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
Persistence
Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)
Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
Biochemistry
Geography, Planning and Development
Aquatic Science
Water Science and Technology
SDG 13 - Climate Action
topic Drought classes
Log-linear modeling
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
Persistence
Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)
Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
Biochemistry
Geography, Planning and Development
Aquatic Science
Water Science and Technology
SDG 13 - Climate Action
description SFRH/BPD/99757/2014 This work was partially supported by the projects IMDROFLOOD-Improving Drought and Flood Early Warning, Forecasting and Mitigation using real-time hydroclimatic indicators (WaterJPI/0004/2014) and project UID/MAT/00297/2013 (Centro de Matematica e Aplicacoes), both funded by funded by Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia, Portugal (FCT). Ana Russo thanks also FCT by the Post-Doc research grant SFRH/BPD/99757/2014.
publishDate 2018
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2018-01-12
2018-01-12T00:00:00Z
2019-04-02T22:16:13Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://doi.org/10.3390/w10010065
url https://doi.org/10.3390/w10010065
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv 2073-4441
PURE: 11651289
http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85040779526&partnerID=8YFLogxK
https://doi.org/10.3390/w10010065
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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