Estimation of infection rate in epidemic models with multiple populations

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Campanella, Gianluca
Data de Publicação: 2011
Tipo de documento: Dissertação
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10362/6118
Resumo: Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Matemática e Aplicações Especialização em Actuariado, Estatística e Investigação Operacional
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spelling Estimation of infection rate in epidemic models with multiple populationsMathematical epidemiology of infectious diseasesMeta-population modelsInfection rate estimationDissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Matemática e Aplicações Especialização em Actuariado, Estatística e Investigação OperacionalThe e ect of infectious diseases on human development throughout history is well established, and investigation on the causes of infectious epidemics { and plagues in particular { dates back at least to Hippocrates,the father of Western medicine. The mechanisms by which diseases spread, however, could not be fully understood until the late nineteenth century, with the discovery of microorganisms and the understanding of their role as infectious agents. Eventually, at the turn of the twentieth century, the foundations of the mathematical epidemiology of infectious diseases were laid by the seminal work of En'ko, Ross, and Kermack and McKendrick. More recently, the application of graph theory to epidemiology has given rise to models that consider the spread of diseases not only at the level of individuals belonging to a single population (population models), but also in systems with multiple populations linked by a transportation network(meta-population models). The aim of meta-populations models is to understand how movement of individuals between populations generates the geographical spread of diseases, a challenging goal whose importance is all the greater now that long-range displacements are facilitated by inexpensive air travel possibilities. A problem of particular interest in all epidemic models is the estimation of parameters from sparse and inaccurate real-world data, especially the socalled infection rate, whose estimation cannot be carried out directly through clinical observation. Focusing on meta-population models, in this thesis we introduce a new estimation method for this crucial parameter that is able to accurately infer it from the arrival times of the rst infective individual in each population. Moreover, we test our method and its accuracy by means of computer simulations.Faculdade de Ciências e TecnologiaNatário, IsabelPereira, RicardoRUNCampanella, Gianluca2011-09-14T10:08:47Z20112011-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10362/6118enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-03-11T03:37:08Zoai:run.unl.pt:10362/6118Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T03:16:43.278697Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Estimation of infection rate in epidemic models with multiple populations
title Estimation of infection rate in epidemic models with multiple populations
spellingShingle Estimation of infection rate in epidemic models with multiple populations
Campanella, Gianluca
Mathematical epidemiology of infectious diseases
Meta-population models
Infection rate estimation
title_short Estimation of infection rate in epidemic models with multiple populations
title_full Estimation of infection rate in epidemic models with multiple populations
title_fullStr Estimation of infection rate in epidemic models with multiple populations
title_full_unstemmed Estimation of infection rate in epidemic models with multiple populations
title_sort Estimation of infection rate in epidemic models with multiple populations
author Campanella, Gianluca
author_facet Campanella, Gianluca
author_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Natário, Isabel
Pereira, Ricardo
RUN
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Campanella, Gianluca
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Mathematical epidemiology of infectious diseases
Meta-population models
Infection rate estimation
topic Mathematical epidemiology of infectious diseases
Meta-population models
Infection rate estimation
description Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Matemática e Aplicações Especialização em Actuariado, Estatística e Investigação Operacional
publishDate 2011
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2011-09-14T10:08:47Z
2011
2011-01-01T00:00:00Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis
format masterThesis
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10362/6118
url http://hdl.handle.net/10362/6118
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
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