Limiting the exposure of the most vulnerable people as a strategy to minimize deaths from COVID-19

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Buján Pérez, Alejandro
Data de Publicação: 2020
Outros Autores: Domínguez, Ignacio López, Garcia, Pablo Mallaina, Fresneda, Ramiro Romero
Tipo de documento: preprint
Idioma: spa
Título da fonte: SciELO Preprints
Texto Completo: https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/354
Resumo: The foreseeable lifting of the containment measures that were taken in Spain to reduce the rate of contagion and avoid saturation of the health system caused by the COVID-19 pandemia, suggests making approaches to how to deal with it. Strategies are proposed until the infected population exceeds the herd immunity threshold: an initial unfiltered proportional reopening, an age-limiting one (first strategy), and a more selective one, restricting mobility by age and only to people without chronic diseases (second strategy). The results obtained show reductions in the potential number of deaths of 82.56 %, if it were limited only by age. If it were restricted by age and without chronic diseases the reduction grows up to 95.34 %. Therefore, the fatality rate would be reduced from 1.04 % to 0.18 % and 0.05 % respectively.
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spelling Limiting the exposure of the most vulnerable people as a strategy to minimize deaths from COVID-19Limitar la exposición de las personas más vulnerables como estrategia para minimizar los fallecimientos por COVID-19Covid-19strategyherd immunitydeathsfatalitychronic diseaseageCovid-19EstrategiaInmunidad de grupoletalidadfallecimientosenfermedades cronicaspatologias previasedadThe foreseeable lifting of the containment measures that were taken in Spain to reduce the rate of contagion and avoid saturation of the health system caused by the COVID-19 pandemia, suggests making approaches to how to deal with it. Strategies are proposed until the infected population exceeds the herd immunity threshold: an initial unfiltered proportional reopening, an age-limiting one (first strategy), and a more selective one, restricting mobility by age and only to people without chronic diseases (second strategy). The results obtained show reductions in the potential number of deaths of 82.56 %, if it were limited only by age. If it were restricted by age and without chronic diseases the reduction grows up to 95.34 %. Therefore, the fatality rate would be reduced from 1.04 % to 0.18 % and 0.05 % respectively.Cercanos al levantamiento de las medidas de confinamiento que se tomaron para reducir la velocidad de contagio y evitar la saturación del sistema sanitario provocado por la pandemia de COVID-19, sugiere hacer planteamientos de cómo afrontarlo, aplicado en este caso concreto a España. Se plantean estrategias hasta que la población contagiada supere el umbral de la inmunidad de grupo: una salida proporcional sin filtrar, una reapertura limitando por edad (primera estrategia) y un desconfinamiento más selectivo restringiendo salidas por edad a personas sin enfermedades crónicas (segunda estrategia). Los resultados obtenidos muestran reducciones en el número potencial de fallecidos del 82.56 % si se limitase la reapertura por edad y del 95.34 % si se restringiese por edad y sin enfermedades crónicas. Así, se reduciría la letalidad del 1.04 %, al 0.18 % y 0.05 % respectivamente.SciELO PreprintsSciELO PreprintsSciELO Preprints2020-05-06info:eu-repo/semantics/preprintinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/35410.1590/SciELOPreprints.354spahttps://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/article/view/354/434Copyright (c) 2020 Alejandro Buján Pérez, Ignacio López Domínguez, Pablo Mallaina Garcia, Ramiro Romero Fresnedahttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessBuján Pérez, AlejandroDomínguez, Ignacio LópezGarcia, Pablo MallainaFresneda, Ramiro Romeroreponame:SciELO Preprintsinstname:SciELOinstacron:SCI2020-05-06T06:50:54Zoai:ops.preprints.scielo.org:preprint/354Servidor de preprintshttps://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scieloONGhttps://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/oaiscielo.submission@scielo.orgopendoar:2020-05-06T06:50:54SciELO Preprints - SciELOfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Limiting the exposure of the most vulnerable people as a strategy to minimize deaths from COVID-19
Limitar la exposición de las personas más vulnerables como estrategia para minimizar los fallecimientos por COVID-19
title Limiting the exposure of the most vulnerable people as a strategy to minimize deaths from COVID-19
spellingShingle Limiting the exposure of the most vulnerable people as a strategy to minimize deaths from COVID-19
Buján Pérez, Alejandro
Covid-19
strategy
herd immunity
deaths
fatality
chronic disease
age
Covid-19
Estrategia
Inmunidad de grupo
letalidad
fallecimientos
enfermedades cronicas
patologias previas
edad
title_short Limiting the exposure of the most vulnerable people as a strategy to minimize deaths from COVID-19
title_full Limiting the exposure of the most vulnerable people as a strategy to minimize deaths from COVID-19
title_fullStr Limiting the exposure of the most vulnerable people as a strategy to minimize deaths from COVID-19
title_full_unstemmed Limiting the exposure of the most vulnerable people as a strategy to minimize deaths from COVID-19
title_sort Limiting the exposure of the most vulnerable people as a strategy to minimize deaths from COVID-19
author Buján Pérez, Alejandro
author_facet Buján Pérez, Alejandro
Domínguez, Ignacio López
Garcia, Pablo Mallaina
Fresneda, Ramiro Romero
author_role author
author2 Domínguez, Ignacio López
Garcia, Pablo Mallaina
Fresneda, Ramiro Romero
author2_role author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Buján Pérez, Alejandro
Domínguez, Ignacio López
Garcia, Pablo Mallaina
Fresneda, Ramiro Romero
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Covid-19
strategy
herd immunity
deaths
fatality
chronic disease
age
Covid-19
Estrategia
Inmunidad de grupo
letalidad
fallecimientos
enfermedades cronicas
patologias previas
edad
topic Covid-19
strategy
herd immunity
deaths
fatality
chronic disease
age
Covid-19
Estrategia
Inmunidad de grupo
letalidad
fallecimientos
enfermedades cronicas
patologias previas
edad
description The foreseeable lifting of the containment measures that were taken in Spain to reduce the rate of contagion and avoid saturation of the health system caused by the COVID-19 pandemia, suggests making approaches to how to deal with it. Strategies are proposed until the infected population exceeds the herd immunity threshold: an initial unfiltered proportional reopening, an age-limiting one (first strategy), and a more selective one, restricting mobility by age and only to people without chronic diseases (second strategy). The results obtained show reductions in the potential number of deaths of 82.56 %, if it were limited only by age. If it were restricted by age and without chronic diseases the reduction grows up to 95.34 %. Therefore, the fatality rate would be reduced from 1.04 % to 0.18 % and 0.05 % respectively.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2020-05-06
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/preprint
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format preprint
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/354
10.1590/SciELOPreprints.354
url https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/354
identifier_str_mv 10.1590/SciELOPreprints.354
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv spa
language spa
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/article/view/354/434
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv SciELO Preprints
SciELO Preprints
SciELO Preprints
publisher.none.fl_str_mv SciELO Preprints
SciELO Preprints
SciELO Preprints
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:SciELO Preprints
instname:SciELO
instacron:SCI
instname_str SciELO
instacron_str SCI
institution SCI
reponame_str SciELO Preprints
collection SciELO Preprints
repository.name.fl_str_mv SciELO Preprints - SciELO
repository.mail.fl_str_mv scielo.submission@scielo.org
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