Short-term forecasting of daily COVID-19 cases in Brazil by using the Holt’s model

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Martinez, Edson Zangiacomi
Data de Publicação: 2020
Outros Autores: Aragon, Davi Casale, Nunes, Altacílio Aparecido
Tipo de documento: preprint
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: SciELO Preprints
Texto Completo: https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/667
Resumo: Introduction: We evaluated the performance of the Holt’s model to forecast the daily COVID-19 reported cases in Brazil and three Brazilian states. Methods: We chose the date of the first COVID-19 case to April 25, 2020, as the training period, and April 26 to May 3, 2020, as the test period. Results: The Holt’s model performed well in forecasting the cases in Brazil and in São Paulo and Minas Gerais states, but the forecasts were underestimated in Rio de Janeiro state. Conclusions: The Holt’s model can be an adequate shortterm forecasting method if their assumptions are adequately verified and validated by experts.
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spelling Short-term forecasting of daily COVID-19 cases in Brazil by using the Holt’s modelCOVID-19Coronavirus diseaseForecastingStatistical modelsEpidemiologyIntroduction: We evaluated the performance of the Holt’s model to forecast the daily COVID-19 reported cases in Brazil and three Brazilian states. Methods: We chose the date of the first COVID-19 case to April 25, 2020, as the training period, and April 26 to May 3, 2020, as the test period. Results: The Holt’s model performed well in forecasting the cases in Brazil and in São Paulo and Minas Gerais states, but the forecasts were underestimated in Rio de Janeiro state. Conclusions: The Holt’s model can be an adequate shortterm forecasting method if their assumptions are adequately verified and validated by experts.SciELO PreprintsSciELO PreprintsSciELO Preprints2020-05-29info:eu-repo/semantics/preprintinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/66710.1590/0037-8682-0283-2020enghttps://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/article/view/667/858Copyright (c) 2020 Edson Zangiacomi Martinez, Davi Casale Aragon, Altacílio Aparecido Nuneshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessMartinez, Edson ZangiacomiAragon, Davi CasaleNunes, Altacílio Aparecidoreponame:SciELO Preprintsinstname:SciELOinstacron:SCI2020-05-29T13:46:00Zoai:ops.preprints.scielo.org:preprint/667Servidor de preprintshttps://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scieloONGhttps://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/oaiscielo.submission@scielo.orgopendoar:2020-05-29T13:46SciELO Preprints - SciELOfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Short-term forecasting of daily COVID-19 cases in Brazil by using the Holt’s model
title Short-term forecasting of daily COVID-19 cases in Brazil by using the Holt’s model
spellingShingle Short-term forecasting of daily COVID-19 cases in Brazil by using the Holt’s model
Martinez, Edson Zangiacomi
COVID-19
Coronavirus disease
Forecasting
Statistical models
Epidemiology
title_short Short-term forecasting of daily COVID-19 cases in Brazil by using the Holt’s model
title_full Short-term forecasting of daily COVID-19 cases in Brazil by using the Holt’s model
title_fullStr Short-term forecasting of daily COVID-19 cases in Brazil by using the Holt’s model
title_full_unstemmed Short-term forecasting of daily COVID-19 cases in Brazil by using the Holt’s model
title_sort Short-term forecasting of daily COVID-19 cases in Brazil by using the Holt’s model
author Martinez, Edson Zangiacomi
author_facet Martinez, Edson Zangiacomi
Aragon, Davi Casale
Nunes, Altacílio Aparecido
author_role author
author2 Aragon, Davi Casale
Nunes, Altacílio Aparecido
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Martinez, Edson Zangiacomi
Aragon, Davi Casale
Nunes, Altacílio Aparecido
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv COVID-19
Coronavirus disease
Forecasting
Statistical models
Epidemiology
topic COVID-19
Coronavirus disease
Forecasting
Statistical models
Epidemiology
description Introduction: We evaluated the performance of the Holt’s model to forecast the daily COVID-19 reported cases in Brazil and three Brazilian states. Methods: We chose the date of the first COVID-19 case to April 25, 2020, as the training period, and April 26 to May 3, 2020, as the test period. Results: The Holt’s model performed well in forecasting the cases in Brazil and in São Paulo and Minas Gerais states, but the forecasts were underestimated in Rio de Janeiro state. Conclusions: The Holt’s model can be an adequate shortterm forecasting method if their assumptions are adequately verified and validated by experts.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2020-05-29
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/preprint
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format preprint
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/667
10.1590/0037-8682-0283-2020
url https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/667
identifier_str_mv 10.1590/0037-8682-0283-2020
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/article/view/667/858
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2020 Edson Zangiacomi Martinez, Davi Casale Aragon, Altacílio Aparecido Nunes
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2020 Edson Zangiacomi Martinez, Davi Casale Aragon, Altacílio Aparecido Nunes
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv SciELO Preprints
SciELO Preprints
SciELO Preprints
publisher.none.fl_str_mv SciELO Preprints
SciELO Preprints
SciELO Preprints
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:SciELO Preprints
instname:SciELO
instacron:SCI
instname_str SciELO
instacron_str SCI
institution SCI
reponame_str SciELO Preprints
collection SciELO Preprints
repository.name.fl_str_mv SciELO Preprints - SciELO
repository.mail.fl_str_mv scielo.submission@scielo.org
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