The COVID-19 Pandemic in Brazil: the Series of Projection from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and the Ensuing Evolution, from May to August, 2020

• Autor(a) principal: Stein, Caroline
• Data de Publicação: 2020
• Outros Autores: Cousin, Ewerton, Machado, Ísis Eloah, Passos, Valéria Maria de Azeredo, Sousa, Tatiane Moraes de, Schmidt, Maria Inês, Gallagher, John, Naghavi, Mohsen, Duncan, Bruce B., Felisbino-Mendes, Mariana Santos
• Tipo de documento: preprint
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: SciELO Preprints
• Texto Completo: https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/1534
• topic: COVID-19; Transmissão; Previsões; Pandemias; Brasil; Estudos de Séries Temporais; COVID-19; Transmission; Forecasting; Pandemics; Brazil; Time Series Studies

Objective: To describe the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projections for the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and its states, present their accuracy and discuss their implications. Methods: We describe projections from May to August, 2020 for Brazil and selected states, comparing them with the ensuing reported number of cumulative deaths. Results: The pandemic is projected to cause 182,809 deaths by December 1, 2020 in Brazil. An increase in mask use could reduce the projected death toll by ~17,000. The average error in projections of the cumulative number of deaths in 2, 4 and 6 weeks was 13%, 18% and 22%. Conclusion: IHME short, and medium term projections provide important and sufficiently accurate information to inform health planners, elected officials, and society. After presenting a very troublesome course to August, the pandemic is projected to decline steadily and slowly, with ~400 deaths/day still occurring in early December.