COVID-19 Pandemic in Brazil: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Projections and the Ensuing Evolution

• Autor(a) principal: Stein, Caroline
• Data de Publicação: 2020
• Outros Autores: Cousin, Ewerton, Malta, Deborah Carvalho, Ribeiro , Antonio Luiz Pinho, Machado , Ísis Eloah, Vasconcelos , Ana Maria Nogales, Melo, Ana Paula Souto, França , Elisabeth, Ishitani , Lenice, Felisbino-Mendes , Mariana Santos, Passos , Valéria Maria de Azeredo, Sousa , Tatiane Moraes de, Marinho , Fatima, Schmidt , Maria Inês, Gallagher , John, Naghavi , Mohsen, Duncan , Bruce B.
• Tipo de documento: preprint
• Idioma: por; eng
• Título da fonte: SciELO Preprints
• Texto Completo: https://preprints.scielo.org/index.php/scielo/preprint/view/1110
• topic: COVID-19; transmissão; pandemias; previsões; Brasil; COVID-19; transmission; forecasting; pandemics; Brazil; COVID-19; transmisión; predicción; pandemias; Brasil

Objective: To describe IHME projections for the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and its states and discuss their accuracy and implications for different scenarios. Methods: We describe and estimate the accuracy of these predictions for Brazil by comparing them with the ensuing reported cumulative deaths. Results: The pandemic is projected to cause 192,511 deaths by December 1, 2020. Continued relaxation of mandated physical isolation despite rising deaths could cause >63,000 additional deaths, while rapid increase in mask use could reduce the projected death toll by ~25,000. Several states will likely be obliged to reinstitute mandated restrictions.  Differences between IHME projections up to 6 weeks and recorded deaths ranged from -11% to 48% for Brazil. Conclusion: IHME short to medium term projections of deaths provide sufficiently accurate information to inform health planners, elected officials, and society. They suggest a prolonged pandemic course, with major mortality and probable necessity of renewed restrictions.